3 NHL Best Bets and Predictions for Sunday 11/17/24
Whether it's moneylines or total goals, there are plenty of ways to bet on the NHL action all season. It's a long 82-game campaign, meaning that the best selections of each night can be very different based on backup goalies coming into play, injuries that add up, and if teams are due for positive or negative swings.
For additional NHL insights, check out FanDuel Research's daily NHL projections, powered by numberFire.
Let's dive into the best bets for tonight.
Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All NHL betting odds and totals are from the NHL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. All advanced statistics are used from MoneyPuck.com and NaturalStatTrick.com. Lineup notes come from Daily Faceoff.
NHL Betting Picks Today
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St. Louis Blues vs. Carolina Hurricanes
Blues Moneyline (+245)
Moneyline
Two teams are coming in on a short turnaround on Sunday afternoon, albeit one with an unsuspecting advantage. The Carolina Hurricanes host the St. Louis Blues after both teams were on the ice Saturday. The Blues dispatched the Boston Bruins in a matinee, while the Hurricanes got past the Ottawa Senators later in the day, leaving Carolina with less than 24 hours to get back onto the ice. Goaltending issues compound that scheduling snafu, and the Blues can take advantage.
With Frederik Andersen and Pytor Kochetkov both unavailable, the Canes turned to Spencer Martin against the Sens. While Kochetkov is projected as Sunday’s starter, his injury status against the Sens suggests he won’t be 100%. Moreover, he’s been ineffective when called upon this season, posting an 89.7% save percentage across ten appearances.
But the Blues’ advantages run more profound than that. With limited offensive production, Carolina has been outplayed in three of its past five. The Hurricanes have been limited to nine or fewer high-danger chances in three of those contests while outchancing their opponents only twice. Conversely, St. Louis is coming off one of its best offensive performances of the season, attempting 26 scoring and 12 high-danger chances against the Bruins. That momentum carries them into a promising showdown against a Kotchetkov.
Scheduling, goaltending, and analytics are working against the Canes in this one. As a result, we can’t rationalize their -310 moneyline price. This is an ideal spot to back the Blues at a monstrous price.
Washington Capitals vs. Vegas Golden Knights
Capitals Moneyline (+114)
Moneyline
A quick glimpse at the standings reveals the Vegas Golden Knights perched atop their throne in the Pacific Division; however, a closer inspection of their analytics supports their unfounded position. Vegas is struggling to compete on a nightly basis. Their victories have been built on unreliable metrics, and regression appears inevitable. The unstoppable Washington Capitals can facilitate that correction in tonight’s inter-conference affair.
Vegas’ success has the stability of a house of cards. Despite owning the fifth-best points percentage in the NHL, the Golden Knights have accumulated the eighth-worst expected goals-for rating. That’s resulted in an unsustainable PDO and increased reliance on special teams scoring to lead them to victories. More concerningly, they’ve struggled mightily over their more recent sample. Vegas has been outplayed in five straight, yielding a 44.0% expected goals-for rating.
After years of succumbing to ineffective analytics play, the Capitals have embraced the modern game in 2024-25. They’ve put together the fourth-best expected goals-for rating in the NHL, thanks mainly to their rejuvenated offense. The Caps are averaging 10.8 high-danger chances per game this season, surpassing that benchmark in six of their past 10.
Correction is inevitable for the Golden Knights. We expect a quick and unforgiving turn reversal of fortune for Vegas, starting with tonight’s clash versus the Capitals. Washington has superior analytics and can match offensive wits with the Knights from start to finish. There’s value in backing the underdogs in this one.
New York Rangers vs. Seattle Kraken
Rangers Moneyline (-184)
Moneyline
Not many teams can keep pace with the mighty New York Rangers, and the Seattle Kraken are not one of those teams. The Rangers enter Sunday’s tilt as decisive favorites; as you’ll see, the price should be significantly higher.
Seattle doesn’t possess the defensive structure to contain the Rangers or the offensive firepower to skate with them. The Kraken have exceeded 11 high-danger chances in just four games this season, correlating with lackluster output. At five-on-five, they score in the bottom half of the league, averaging 1.9 goals per game. Further, they have negative relative metrics across the board, getting outchanced in shots, scoring, and high-danger chances.
The Rangers continue to impose their offensive will every time they step on the ice. They’ve attempted ten high-danger chances in three of their past five, driving their season-long average up to 10.1 per game. With Igor Shesterkin still standing tall in the blue paint and one of the best defensive corps in the league, the Broadway Blueshirts can best their opponents on both ends of the ice.
Seattle enters Sunday’s contest on the second night of a back-to-back. They mismanaged their goaltenders, giving primary netminder Joey Daccord the nod in yesterday’s win. That gives the Rangers an unneeded advantage, and we expect them to make the most of it.
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