NBA Betting Picks for Thursday 12/28/23: Will Miami Stay Hot in Golden State?

The 82-game NBA regular season offers us a wide variety of betting options, including point spreads, moneylines, and totals. The Association features 1,230 regular season games, which can make sifting through the odds an overwhelming task.

However, various advanced statistics can help narrow the choices. numberFire's NBA power rankings and daily projections paired with advanced stats from the NBA can help give the inside track to winning big.

While utilizing some of the mentioned tools, which NBA odds from FanDuel Sportsbook look like the best bets today?

Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

NBA Best Bets

Detroit Pistons at Boston Celtics

Over 232.5 (-110)

The NBA's worst and best teams collide with the Detroit Pistons (2-28) visiting the Boston Celtics (23-6). After Detroit set the record for the longest losing streak in NBA history at 27 games on Tuesday, the betting odds look like what you would expect. Boston is a heavy 17.5-point favorite.

Jaylen Brown, who averages 22.6 points per game (PPG), is inactive due to a back injury, but Jayson Tatum (26.9 PPG) will play after initially being listed as questionable.

The Pistons have the league's fifth-worst defensive rating. Boston -- who averages the most three-point attempts per game in the NBA -- could see their shots dip from beyond the arc, though. Detroit's perimeter defense has been perhaps their greatest strength, holding opponents to only 30.3 three-point shots per game (second-fewest).

But the Pistons' interior defense has been a different story. They give up the eighth-most points in the paint per game; the Celtics have the third-best two-point percentage in the league.

Brown totals the third-most three-point attempts per game on Boston. With the star wing absent, this could be a game for the Celtics to attack the rim. Kristaps Porzingis (19.6 PPG) shoots 52.5% of his field goals within 14 feet of the rim, and Jrue Holiday (13.1 PPG) has a nose for the rim, taking 50.0% of his shots within 14 feet of the basket.

On the other side of the court, Detroit has totaled 115.2 PPG over their previous five games. For reference, the Pistons are totaling 109.3 PPG on the season (third-worst). Cade Cunningham (23.0 PPG) has reached a new level with 33.5 PPG over his last four games, which included two 40-point outings.

The over is 4-1 in the last five Detroit games, and it has hit in four consecutive Celtics contests. Boston should find plenty of success against the Pistons' weak defense, and Cunningham could continue to fuel Detroit's rolling offense.

Indiana Pacers at Chicago Bulls

Pacers Moneyline (-116)

Since the In-Season Tournament, the Indiana Pacers have gone on a brutal stretch with a 3-6 record over their previous nine contests. The Pacers are facing a red-hot Chicago Bulls team, who are 4-1 over their last five games.

Chicago has rolled thanks to their defense, which has held the last five opponents to an average of 105.8 PPG. Indiana could have the offense to crack the Bulls' stout defense, though.

The Pacers still lead the NBA in offensive rating while totaling 125.8 PPG (first) and a 57.9% effective field goal percentage (eFG%) -- the second-best mark in the league. I like Indiana's chances of walking out of the United Center with a win thanks to their elite offense.

Even with their recent success, Chicago is still giving up 37.8 three-point shots per game during the five-game stretch. The Pacers shoot the seventh-most threes per contest at 38.2. Several of Indiana's knockdown shooters, including Tyrese Haliburton (24.8 PPG) and Buddy Hield (13.3 PPG), could be poised for big games.

Indiana's advantages don't stop there, as the Bulls have the 12th-worst mark in opponent eFG%. Chicago's success on defense could come down to controlling the pace of play, for they give up the fewest field goal attempts per game with the slowest pace in the NBA.

The Pacers' style is a stark contrast with the second-quickest pace and the most shots per game in the Association. The possession battle could be the deciding factor.

The Bulls look to create havoc with the eighth-most steals per game, but Indiana takes care of the ball with opponents averaging only 6.6 steals per game (fifth-fewest).

Three-point shooting and winning the possession battle could fuel the Pacers to a road win.

Miami Heat at Golden State Warriors

Heat +3.5 (-110)

Jimmy Butler, whose 26.3% usage rate is the third-highest mark on the Miami Heat, has missed three consecutive games. The setback has not slowed Miami, though, as they are 4-1 over their previous five contests.

After covering three consecutive games against the spread (ATS), the Heat could be poised for another cover on the road against the Golden State Warriors.

Over their last three games, Miami is averaging 118.7 PPG while shooting 47.4% from the field and 44.0% from beyond the arc. The Heat continue to be absolutely lethal from three at 39.5%, the best mark in the Association.

Tyler Herro (24.0 PPG), Bam Adebayo (22.0 PPG), and Jaime Jaquez Jr. (13.7 PPG) have been a three-headed monster. Herro is averaging 26.3 PPG over his last four outings, Adebayo has totaled 21.0 PPG in the previous four, and Jaquez has emerged with 17.9 PPG over the last eight games.

Following a career-high 31 points on Christmas, Jaquez now has the third-shortest odds to win Rookie of the Year (+4500), per FanDuel's NBA award odds.

Thursday's opponent -- the Warriors -- have the 15th-best defensive rating and allows the 12th-most PPG (115.9). Golden State may lack the defenders to slow Herro, Bam, and Jaquez.

Herro or Jaquez will likely draw one-on-one matchups against Klay Thompson, who has a 119.4 defensive rating. The Warriors' center, Kevon Looney, also has a 118.6 defensive rating and could struggle to slow Adebayo.

Ultimately, I trust Miami's rolling offense against a susceptible defense. The over for the 228.5 total could also be a wise bet, as the Heat give up the ninth-most three-point shots per game while Golden State attempts the fourth-most threes per contest.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.