NASCAR Xfinity Series Win Simulations: Andy's Frozen Custard 300

Texas Motor Speedway is a track where the strongest teams can really shine.

Not only is it a faster track, but it doesn't feature much tire degradation. In other words, you can push the pace here without facing a stiff penalty. As a result, equipment plays a larger role here than it does at most tracks.

That's a problem for everybody not named John Hunter Nemechek.

This year, the best driver has found himself in the fastest car with Joe Gibbs Racing. As a result, Nemechek has won three of the six races on larger, non-drafting ovals, and he was runner-up in another. That includes the point in the season when Cup Series drivers were in the field, which is no longer the case.

As you could guess, my model views Nemechek as the big favorite entering the weekend. Here's what my simulations have prior to practice and qualifying.

Not only does the model view Nemechek as the favorite, but he's also above the betting markets.

FanDuel Sportsbook's NASCAR Xfinity Series betting odds have Nemechek at +240 to win, translating to 29.4% implied odds. He's at 30.5% in the sims. It's not a ton of wiggle room, but you can easily justify betting Nemechek at that number or longer.

If you've read these pieces regularly, you won't be surprised that Chandler Smith is the biggest value. His implied odds at +2500 are 3.8%, and the sims have him at 5.1%. Smith has had his fair share of issues recently, but I'm fine betting on a bounce-back here, especially in non-outright markets where you can avoid Nemechek.

The other value is Riley Herbst at +3500. This may seem idiotic, given Herbst is 0-for-136 in hitting victory lane in his Xfinity Series career.

However, Herbst has performed decently well on other tracks that have emphasized equipment. He had a fifth-place average running position in Michigan and finished fourth in Pocono. Herbst isn't a bad option as a longshot, especially if you can get him longer than +3500.

Have a driver you want to bet in this Saturday's race? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's latest NASCAR Xfinity Series betting odds to see how the market views them.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.