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NASCAR Daily Fantasy Helper: Coke Zero Sugar 400

Austin Swaim
Austin Swaim•ASwaim3

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NASCAR Daily Fantasy Helper: Coke Zero Sugar 400

If you are looking for an action-packed way to consume sports on the weekend, NASCAR may be a great avenue to explore. Far from just driving in circles, some of the world's best compete nearly every weekend from February to November on tracks across America.

NASCAR drivers are scored ultimately based on how they finish in the race, how many spots they advance from their starting position, and how many laps they finish and lead. Avoiding drivers who crash out of the race is a must, though!

numberFire is always your home for fantasy NASCAR advice. In addition to this helper, Jim Sannes takes a look at the best bets of the weekend in his betting guide.

With all of this in mind, let's preview the Coke Zero Sugar 400 from the perspective of playing daily fantasy NASCAR on FanDuel.

Weekend Primer

Event
Time
PracticeNONE
Qualifying Friday, August 25th
5:05 P.M. EST

With no need to junk thousands of dollars in equipment for a practice that most playoff contenders would entirely sit out, it's canceled per usual at a drafting oval. Of course, we're at the most famous drafting oval of all.

Daytona International Speedway now hosts NASCAR's regular-season finale, and it creates a win-and-in dynamic for at least 17 drivers still eligible on points -- and a few more with creative math. This 2.5-mile oval is home to everything that makes drafting exciting, including large pile-ups and plenty of passing.

In recent years, track position has been more vital in drafting ovals with manufacturers working together to control the race. It's not the free-for-all environment that it once was, but there could be more "take" and less "give" considering the circumstances around the playoff picture.

Tire wear shouldn't be a huge component in Saturday's race, either.

General Lineup Strategy

We know what works at Daytona. We stack the back.

Laps led have been more concentrated in recent years, but it's still hard to predict where the 16.0 FanDuel points for laps led end up. Often, a line of Fords, Chevrolets, or Toyotas will control the race, but it's dumb luck if your driver leads the train. That's what still makes this strategy viable.

Plus, a driver would get 16.0 bonus points if they started 33rd and finished 2nd, and that is much easier to predict if a top-shelf driver were to start so far back. Playing the odds, it's far more likely to get bonus points from drivers deeper in the field than cars with early access to the front.

With that in mind, you'll probably leave a heaping amount of salary on the table in most formats to access cars -- still with some juice to contend for the win -- in the rear, and that can make building unique lineups easier. In fact, I'd go as far as to say that, if there is a lineup leaving less than $400 in salary with several cars in the back, it'll be duplicated a ton of times in tournaments.

As usual, my helper today won't be extremely helpful.

We don't have starting spots, and the deeper in the field, the better. If the top driver in my rankings starts 3rd, and the 20th-ranked driver in my rankings starts last, the latter is a better play. It's an odd dynamic to assess as we sit here during the week.

Driver Rankings

Below are my pre-qualifying rankings for each driver based on equipment, track history, recent form, and overall talent level -- in that order. Only drivers with a win probability above 0% in Jim Sannes' win simulations or a top-20 finish this season were included.

MLT Rank, the driver's weighted average median lap time ranking at the relevant sample of similar race tracks to this weekend, is a great indicator of overall speed. The prior races in the sample (with weight percentage) this week are:

  • 2023 Daytona (Spring) - 30.0%
  • 2023 Talladega (Spring) - 30.0%
  • 2023 Atlanta (Spring) - 20.0%
  • 2023 Atlanta (Fall) - 20.0%

For dominator viability, the driver is ranked 0-10 on a scale to potentially lead laps and win the race if they start upfront. A "10" is among the favorites to win the race, and a "0" has no realistic chance of leading the race at any point.

For flex play viability, the driver is ranked 0-10 on a scale of potentially finishing inside the top 15 spots. These drivers will be better daily fantasy plays the further back in the field they start for optimal place-differential points.

Swaim's Rank
Driver
Salary
Sannes' Sims
MLT Rank
Dominator Viability
Flex Viability
1Joey Logano $13,500 6.64%3810
2Ryan Blaney $14,000 6.20%18810
3Kyle Busch $11,500 4.68%9710
4William Byron $12,000 3.50%2710
5Chase Elliott $12,500 5.72%14710
6Denny Hamlin $13,000 5.28%21710
7Ross Chastain $5,800 3.90%4710

The drivers at the top of the salary pool are Ryan Blaney ($14,000) and Joey Logano ($13,500), and it's hard to disagree.

Rain-related strategy foiled their path to a second straight win at Atlanta last month, and Atlanta is a much better test of drafting acumen than the more random, larger tracks at Daytona and Talladega. They've both won at Daytona previously and have been elite drafters for years, but I'm sure either would rather trail Austin Cindric ($8,200) in second and lock a third Penske Ford into the playoffs.

Kyle Busch ($11,500) won at Talladega and seemed to be the only Chevy that could hang with the Penske crew in either Atlanta race, so he's easy to put forth as a potential winner. Of course, William Byron ($12,000) just seems to catch every appropriate break these days with a series-leading five wins. He won at Atlanta in July, so he'll also be a viable option starting deeper in the field.

Chase Elliott ($12,500) is without a doubt the biggest star in win-or-bust mode, and Elliott won at Talladega last fall, so he's absolutely a contender to make the improbable happen. Three-time Daytona 500 winner Denny Hamlin ($13,000) is also one of those stars that should be in consideration any time the Cup Series is on a drafting oval.

I was surprised to see Ross Chastain ($5,800) so low in salary. Chastain has general drafting prowess and the fourth-best median lap time average ranking on the track type this season. Salaries are directly tied to win odds, so perhaps it's a testament to him expected to do everything in his power to help Daniel Suarez ($6,500) push himself into the playoffs. Suarez has three straight top-nine finishes at Daytona and Talladega, but those are the only ones of his career. Personally, I don't see him as a strong drafter and due for a clunker.

However, I do see Brad Keselowski ($11,000) in that light. Keselowski is in the playoffs, but he's still yet to bust into victory circle with his RFK Racing team. Chris Buescher ($10,500) has already done so three times, so there's an itch to scratch at one of the best tracks for "Bad Brad". He won the summer race in 2016.

Bubba Wallace ($8,500) really starts a run of drafting specialists who need a win to get in. They're talented and will be aggressive, so they're my favorite plays in daily fantasy with most of the drivers I've discussed -- except Elliott and Suarez -- locked into the 'yoffs. Aric Almirola ($8,000), Austin Dillon ($6,000), Erik Jones ($5,500), and Justin Haley ($5,000) are all former Daytona winners who fit that description.

There aren't many names I'm totally crossing off the list, but I'm expecting Kyle Larson ($9,500) and Alex Bowman ($9,000) to join Byron and Elliott decently close to the front of the field after qualifying. Hendrick Motorsports has swept the front row during Daytona 500 qualifying four of the last five years and are notoriously fast qualifiers. Of course, if one gets out front for a ton of laps and wins, then that driver will be perfect lineup-bound regardless of being a poor process play in a vacuum.

Rookie Ty Gibbs ($7,000) has a chance (though a small one) to earn enough points if Wallace and Suarez crash, but that's the least of his concerns. He's finished 25th or worse in three of his four starts between Talladega and Daytona. Among drivers in "good" equipment, I've got the lowest evaluation of individual ability on drafting ovals as Gibbs and Suarez, which could make the playoff picture spicy.

On the other side of that coin, Corey Lajoie ($5,000) is a super sleeper for a potential Daytona win. In awful equipment, Lajoie has four top-10 finishes across Daytona and Talladega, which may really not tell the full picture when he battled Blaney for the win in 2021 before a late accident.


The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.

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