NASCAR Craftsman Truck Series Win Simulations: Baptist Health Cancer Care 200

One of the challenges of betting the NASCAR Craftsman Truck Series is that you're always dealing with small samples.

That's also a blessing, though. And this week is a great example.

Saturday's race in Homestead will be just the second race on a 1.5-mile track since May. We haven't gotten many great measuring sticks of speed since then, and it'll play a big factor on Saturday.

So, you can judge drivers by their form. But the form won't be as great of an indicator of expected speed as usual because our sample on relevant tracks is small.

This helps lead to some big discrepancies between my model and the betting market. That's always a bit unnerving because bookmakers are great at what they do, but this is a spot where I buy into what the model is saying.

Here's a full rundown of the sims prior to practice and qualifying.

The big discrepancy here between the sims and the market is on Christian Eckes.

Even though Eckes is the favorite by the model, FanDuel Sportsbook's NASCAR Craftsman Truck Series betting odds have Eckes at +800. I'm willing to accept that the model may be too high on Eckes, but +800 seems light.

The Truck Series has run five races on non-short tracks featuring at least moderate tire degradation. Eckes has won two of those, including Darlington, which has the most aggressive tire falloff on the circuit. The other win was in Kansas a few weeks ago.

That sample doesn't include Texas, but Texas is another high-speed track, and Eckes had a third-place average running position in that one, as well.

At the higher-speed tracks, Eckes has been a threat, and he has become even more dangerous at the spots with more tire falloff.

It's possible Eckes isn't as stout now as he was earlier in the year, but Kansas proved he can still wiggle his way into victory lane. I'm comfortable with my model being higher than the market on him entering the weekend.

Have a driver you want to bet for Saturday's race? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's latest NASCAR Craftsman Truck Series betting odds to see the full menu of options.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.