NASCAR Betting Guide: Autotrader EchoPark Automotive 400

In the NASCAR Cup Series playoffs, things change fast. And nobody illustrates that better than Martin Truex Jr.

Truex entered last week's cutoff race in Bristol below the cutline, meaning there was a decent shot the regular-season champion didn't advance to the Round of 12. Especially at one of his worst tracks, it was a rough spot.

But Truex did get through, thanks in part to poor days by others. And now, the slate is wiped clean, and Truex is once again tied for the points lead entering the second round.

Not only that, but I think he could lock himself into the Round of 8 on Sunday.

Let's dig into this week's Autotrader EchoPark Automotive 400 and outline where my model is showing value relative to FanDuel Sportsbook's NASCAR betting odds for Texas. And yes, it all starts with the man whose championship hopes almost went up in smoke a week ago.

Martin Truex Jr. to Win (+900)

(UPDATE: Truex has since lengthened to +1100 to win. After a disappointing Saturday for Truex, my model has him at 6.0% to win versus 8.3% implied at the new number. I would keep Truex off betslips at this point.)

Texas, specifically, has never been a great track for Truex. That's likely why he has just the fifth-shortest win odds for the race.

His recent speed, though, is undersold by the market.

The Cup Series has run seven races on non-drafting ovals 1.5 miles or longer in length this year. Truex has three podiums in those races, two of which came on tracks in Pocono and Michigan that feature minimal tire falloff, similar to Texas. The other was in Charlotte, which has the same configuration as Texas though differs in tire wear.

Plus, it's not like Truex has been bad at this track. Although he has never won, he was runner-up here in 2020 and has led 50-plus laps 6 times. It may not be his best spot, but it's certainly not his worst.

Largely due to the speed on similar tracks, my model puts Truex's win odds at 11.8%, up from 10.0% implied. That's a big enough gap for me to snag him and hope Truex gets his season back on track.

Daniel Suarez to Finish Top 10 (+280)

(UPDATE: Suarez has since shortened to +230. After Saturday, my model has Suarez at 26.6% for a top-10, down from 30.3% implied. I would feel fine with the +280 given Suarez qualified well, but it's not a bet I'd add now.)

Daniel Suarez's booty has to feel a little toasty recently. Not only did he miss the playoffs, but Trackhouse Racing has since announced contracts for both Shane Van Gisbergen and Zane Smith beginning next year. If Suarez wants to keep his ride beyond 2024, he's gotta crank it up.

I wouldn't be shocked if he takes a step toward that in Texas.

Unlike Truex, Suarez has exceeded his baseline performance in Texas. He finished third in consecutive races back when he was with Stewart-Haas Racing and has finished 10th and 12th in two races here with Trackhouse.

This team -- on the whole -- has lacked pace from the spring on. But Suarez did turn a 10th-place average running position into a 6th-place finish in Michigan, and he was at least decent in Kansas and Las Vegas earlier in the year. They're diminished but not totally out to lunch.

Plus, it's not like the market is slobbering over Suarez. His implied odds for a top 10 are 26.3%. I've got him at 32.7%, so now seems like a decent time to buy low.

Austin Cindric to Finish Top 10 (+800)

(UPDATE: Cindric has since lengthened to +1400 for a top 10. His speed was poor on Saturday, thus the lengthening. I do show value on him at +1400 -- 9.0% versus 6.7% implied -- but confidence in Cindric has slipped due to the poor speed.)

The market has no idea how to handle Austin Cindric. He's as long as +1300 to finish top 10 at one book but as short as +275 at another. At FanDuel, specifically, he's +800, and even though that's not the best number you can get, I'm still showing value.

My model has Cindric at 21.0% to finish top 10, up from 11.1% implied at +800. It's very possible I'm too high on him, but I do think a high incident rate can help explain the gap.

The Cup Series has run seven races at bigger, non-drafting tracks this year. Cindric has finished multiple laps off the pace in four of them, for one reason or another. There have been wrecks, loose wheels, and other factors, all of which are red flags. But they could also hint that he's due for positive regression.

In the three non-incident races, Cindric's average running positions have been 18th, 18th, and 11th, and he has finished top-12 twice. It has been a hellish year for Cindric, but he has still been capable of decent runs when things haven't gone haywire.

Maybe those things will happen again this weekend. Or maybe Cindric will simply lack pace. Either way, I agree with the model that Cindric is being undersold at the books where his top-10 odds are as long as they are at FanDuel.

Post-Qualifying Addition: William Byron to Win (+1400)

Although William Byron qualified 18th, that shouldn't be a huge detriment on Sunday with several competitors also in the mid-pack. And the lengthened odds on Byron have made him a value.

After qualifying, my model has Byron at 7.9% to win, up from 6.7% implied. Byron was 10th in single-lap speed (after accounting for practice group differentials) and eighth in five-lap average. Given the speed his teammate, Kyle Larson, showed, we can have faith in the top two Hendrick cars on Sunday.

But Larson's odds have shortened to +410 while Byron is +1400. Larson should be higher (and is the favorite in my model), but I don't think the gap should be this large. With how fast Byron has been this year, getting a discount on him at +1400 is hard to turn down.

Post-Qualifying Addition: Erik Jones to Win (+5000); Jones to Finish Top 10 (+175)

Erik Jones isn't in the playoffs, but he's no stranger to playing spoiler after his playoff win in Darlington last year. I think he'll have a shot to do it again this week.

Jones was super fast in practice on Saturday. After accounting for groups, Jones ranked second in single-lap speed and led the field in five-lap average.

This isn't a huge surprise. Jones and Legacy MC have had much better speed recently, and Jones nearly won a couple weeks ago in Kansas. He was third there, his third straight top-10 on a higher-speed, non-drafting track. Considering where they were earlier in the year, this is a huge gain.

The string of top-10s helps us in the top-10 market. My model has Jones at 45.7% for a top-10, up from 36.4% implied.

The upside in Kansas is why we can buy into the outright. My model has Jones at 3.8% to win, a good chunk higher than his 2.0% implied odds. I'd recommend laddering these two so that you can profit should Jones achieve the top-10, but just in general, he's a standout relative to the market for me.

Have a driver you like for Sunday in Texas? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's latest NASCAR betting odds to find the best market for them.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.