Best NASCAR Xfinity Series Bets for The LiUNA! at Las Vegas

Aric Almirola snagged another NASCAR Xfinity Series win in Phoenix last week, giving him 4 wins in 16 races since the start of last year. Clearly, he's a threat.

But three of those four wins came on short, flat tracks. He has been more solid than elite on faster tracks, and I think the other wins have inflated Almirola's standing in the betting markets this week. He's +350 to win in FanDuel Sportsbook's NASCAR Xfinity Series betting odds.

It's possible I'm underselling Almirola, given his Cup Series experience and his speed with Joe Gibbs Racing. I don't mind being below market on him, though, and I do think it creates value elsewhere.

Here's what my model has prior to practice and qualifying. After that, we'll run through which bets I like at FanDuel.

UPDATE: The sims have been updated after qualifying. I am -- somehow -- now even further off market on Almirola. Thus, I would take value elsewhere with a grain of salt as there's a chance I'm lower on him than I should be. But I feel confident that the market is also too high on him, so I'm comfortable with finding routes to fade Almirola at current prices, as well.

NASCAR Xfinity Series Predictions for Las Vegas

NASCAR Xfinity Series Betting Picks for Las Vegas

• Austin Hill (+900): Hill won in Homestead last year, the final 1.5-mile race on the 2024 calendar, and won in Las Vegas in 2023. In 12 races on 1.5-mile tracks since the start of 2023, Hill has six top-six average running positions. With so much youth at Joe Gibbs Racing and JR Motorsports, Hill's ability to turn that consistency into wins could increase this year.
  • UPDATE: Hill has since lengthened to +1000. The model is still high on him after his five fastest laps ranked fourth in the field on average, and his 10 fastest laps ranked third. He'll start 14th, but I'm still fully on board with Hill at the lengthened number.
• Sam Mayer (+1200): Speaking of JR Motorsports, Mayer departed that team this offseason to join Haas Factory Team, which flexed muscle on 1.5-mile tracks last year. Mayer did, too, winning in Texas after he also won Homestead the year before. Even at just 21 years old, Mayer is one of the veterans of the series now with this being his fourth full-time season, so I think he could benefit from the same factors as Hill.
  • UPDATE: Mayer is still +1200, and the model is still high on him. He'll start fifth and ranked sixth in fastest 10-lap average. Similar to Hill, I'm fully good with Mayer even accounting for the possibility that I'm too low on Almirola.
• Post-Qualifying Addition: Sammy Smith (+1400): Smith has typically struggled on 1.5-mile tracks in the Xfinity Series, but he'll start from the pole on Saturday. He was second in fastest five lap average and fifth in the 10-lap version. It'll be interesting to see how his car handles if he gets back in traffic, but I think there's enough here to justify him at +1400.

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Which drivers stand out to you for Saturday's race? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's latest NASCAR Xfinity Series betting odds to see the full menu of options.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.