MLB Predictions Today: 3 MLB Best Bets and Picks for Thursday, August 13, 2026

MLB Betting Picks in Summary

• Pirates Moneyline (-118)
• Trevor Larnach to Hit a Home Run (+560)
• Walbert Urena Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-132)

Baseball has you covered if you want a large inventory of options to bet.

From moneylines to player props to NRFI wagers, we have plenty of ways each day to bet the long, arduous MLB schedule.

Using the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, what are the best MLB bets for today?

This article includes some of the top bets from our other MLB content. All MLB odds via FanDuel, and they may change after this article is published.

MLB Picks and Predictions for Today

Pirates Moneyline (-118)

Pirates at Marlins, 1:11 p.m. ET

My favorite bet of the day actually comes in the first game of the day as I’m drawn to the Pittsburgh Pirates, who are only slim favorites at the Miami Marlins despite what I think is a large pitching edge.

Braxton Ashcraft and Tyler Phillips are the expected starters, and Ashcraft has way better numbers this season.

Ashcraft owns a 3.32 SIERA, 26.6% strikeout rate and 12.6% swinging-strike rate. Admittedly, he’s been in a funk lately, struggling to a 7.88 ERA across his past five starts, but his expected ERA in that time is a more respectable 4.57 as he’s been super unlucky in the homer-to-fly-ball department as his HR/FB rate is an eye-popping 30.4% during that five-outing stretch. I think he can right the ship today against a Miami offense that has the 11th-highest K rate over the past 30 days (22.7%).

As for Phillips, he’s pitched to a 4.66 SIERA and 17.5% strikeout rate in 2026. He hasn’t worked more than five frames in any of his previous five starts, which means we should see a good amount of a Miami bullpen that’s let up the eighth-most jacks per nine over the last month (1.21).

All in all, I think Pittsburgh has a sizable edge at starting pitcher, and I view them as being a little undervalued today.

Trevor Larnach to Hit a Home Run (+560)

Phillies at Twins, 7:31 p.m. ET

These long odds on Trevor Larnach to go yard catch my eye.

Larnach and the Minnesota Twins are facing Aaron Nola and the Philadelphia Phillies in tonight’s Field of Dreams Game. Nola is a good pitcher but is having a difficult time with lefties, getting tagged for a .372 wOBA in the split. He’s had a huge gopher-ball problem all season long, with lefty bats generating 2.13 homers per nine against Nola.

Larnach is quietly having a nice season. He’s got a .348 expected wOBA overall and a .360 wOBA with the platoon advantage. He’s mustered a mere five hits over his last 35 plate appearances, but two of the knocks were bombs. Although Larnach is a pinch-hit risk if he sees a southpaw later in the game, I think that’s plenty baked into these odds.

Walbert Urena Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-132)

Rangers vs. Angels, 10:08 p.m. ET

Walbert Urena has shown intriguing swing-and-miss stuff this season, and he can succeed tonight in a clash with the Texas Rangers.

Texas’ offense is struggling mightily of late, ranking 29th in wOBA (.277) over the last 30 days while striking out at the eighth-highest rate in that span (24.7%). They’re an excellent matchup. They also have the eighth-lowest walk rate (7.7%) during that time, which matters a lot for Urena because the Los Angeles Angels‘ RHP has a 12.6% walk rate.

But outside of the walk rate, Urena’s numbers are pretty dope, including a 22.2% K rate and 11.9% swinging-strike rate. He really enjoys pitching at home, holding hitters to a .248 wOBA in the split while striking out a lot more batters at home (25.0% K rate) than on the road (18.5%).

Urena has fanned at least five in three of his last four starts, and I like him to do it again tonight.

MLB Betting Frequently Asked Questions

What are MLB player prop bets?

MLB player prop bets are wagers on specific statistical outcomes tied to individual players during a game — not on which team wins or loses. You might bet on how many strikeouts a starting pitcher records, whether a shortstop gets a hit, or how many total bases an outfielder accumulates.

Because they are isolated to a single player's performance, props let you apply focused knowledge about matchups, recent form, and ballpark conditions rather than predicting the full game result.

What types of MLB player props are available?

FanDuel offers a wide menu of MLB props. The most common categories include:

• Pitcher strikeouts
• Batter hits
• Home runs
• Total bases
• RBIs
• Stolen bases
• Pitcher outs recorded

What does +310 mean on an MLB home run prop bet?

A +310 line means a $100 bet returns $310 in profit if the player homers. You can bet any amount — a $10 bet at +310 returns $31 in profit. The number reflects the implied probability the sportsbook assigns to the event (roughly 24% for +310 odds).

Can I parlay home run props together on FanDuel?

Yes. FanDuel allows you to parlay multiple HR props as a standard parlay or as part of a Same Game Parlay (SGP) within a single game. All legs must win for the parlay to pay out.

What does "total bases" mean as a prop bet?

The total bases prop counts the bases a batter earns from hits in a single game:

• Single = 1 base
• Double = 2 bases
• Triple = 3 bases
• Home run = 4 bases

Walks, hit-by-pitches, and stolen bases do not count. A typical total bases line is set at 1.5 or 2.5. Betting over 1.5 means you need at least a double, or two singles.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.