Best Home Run Bet for Today: FanDuel Daily Dinger Pick for Thursday, August 13, 2026

Daily Dinger Home Run Pick

• Jarren Duran +430

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For today, who should you pick to hit a home run?

MLB odds via FanDuel Sportsbook and may change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise. This HR pick is taken from today’s home run picks article. Click here to find it as well our other MLB betting content.

Best Home Run Pick Today, Daily Dinger

Home Run Prediction: Jarren Duran to Hit a Home Run (+430)

Red Sox at Blue Jays, 3:08 p.m. ET

The Boston Red Sox get to see Max Scherzer, who is running on fumes at this point in his career.

Mad Max owns a 5.10 SIERA and 16.8% strikeout rate this year across 36 frames. He let up two taters last time out and has been tagged for 2.75 jacks per nine this campaign. While it’s a small sample, Scherzer is permitting a .412 wOBA and 53.1% fly-ball rate to left-handed hitters.

Enter Jarren Duran.

It hasn’t been a good season for the Boston outfielder. This is a quality matchup for him, though, and he’s starting to get on track, producing a .359 expected wOBA over his last 50 plate appearances. Just a season ago, Duran put up a .366 wOBA with the platoon advantage, so we know what he can do when he’s right.

After Scherzer is pulled, Duran can pick on a Toronto Blue Jays bullpen that sits 11th-worst in xFIP (4.57) over the last 30 days.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does +310 mean on an MLB home run prop bet?

A +310 line means a $100 bet returns $310 in profit if the player homers. You can bet any amount — a $10 bet at +310 returns $31 in profit. The number reflects the implied probability the sportsbook assigns to the event (roughly 24% for +310 odds).

What happens to my FanDuel HR prop if the player doesn't start?

FanDuel's policy is that a HR prop bet will not be voided if the player records at least one at-bat — even as a pinch hitter. If they don't get any at-bat, the bet is typically voided. Always check FanDuel's official terms before placing your wager.

Can I parlay home run props together on FanDuel?

Yes. FanDuel allows you to parlay multiple HR props as a standard parlay or as part of a Same Game Parlay (SGP) within a single game. All legs must win for the parlay to pay out.

What factors matter most when betting MLB home run props?

Some of the most important factors are: the hitter's recent HR rate and raw power profile, the opposing pitcher's home run rate allowed, ballpark dimensions and park factors, wind direction and game-time temperature, and batter-vs-pitcher handedness splits.

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Which home run props stand out to you today? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB odds to see the full menu of options.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.