MLB Best Bets, Player Props, and Home Run Picks for Sunday 9/15/24

Baseball has you covered if you want a large inventory of options to bet.

From moneylines to player props to home runs, we have plenty of ways to bet the long, arduous MLB schedule daily. Outlooks can be vastly different due to starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know if an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due for positive -- or negative -- regression.

Using numberFire's game predictions and FanDuel Research's daily MLB projections as a guide, which MLB odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated projections.

Today's Best MLB Bets and Player Props

New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies

David Peterson Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+100)

It's a bit surprising this line isn't 3.5.

David Peterson is no dominant pitcher, ranking in the 21st percentile of strikeout rate (18.9%) with a below-average whiff rate (24.3%). His 2.98 ERA is also hiding a 4.92 expected ERA (xERA) behind it, implying great fortune on balls in play this season.

Today's opposing Philadelphia Phillies are a dominant club that can turn fortunes around quickly. They've posted the league's best wRC+ (124) with its third-lowest strikeout rate (17.3%) against southpaws in the past 30 days.

FanDuel Research's daily MLB projections have got the New York Mets' Sunday starter projected for 4.55 Ks at a median, but that would imply roughly -110 odds to go under that mark. We'll take the friendly amount of plus money.

Chicago Cubs at Colorado Rockies

Over 11.5 Runs (-104)

These two clubs missed the hook on this number in last night's game, but today's starting pitching at Coors Field is U-G-L-Y without an alibi.

Kyle Hendricks toes the slab for the opposing Chicago Cubs, and Hendricks' awful 5.12 xERA, .288 expected batting average allowed (xBA), and 15.4% K rate seem like a disaster entering baseball's best park for hitters.

For the home side, Cal Quantrill sees that danger and raises him a worse xERA (5.02) with enchanced potential to let up dingers. Quantrill has coughed up 1.30 HR/9 this season with a hard-hit rate allowed (40.1%) that make it no surprise.

In the past 30 days, these are two of baseball's top-11 offenses against righties (by OPS) and bottom-13 bullpens (by xFIP). Every metric you could check leads to heightened potential for scoring at Coors today.

Today's Best Home Run Prop Bets

Giancarlo Stanton to Hit a Home Run (+300)

The New York Yankees draw Kutter Crawford one last time in the closing stretch of 2024, and I've got to include a dinger prop against him.

Crawford leads all MLB pitchers to log at least 150 innings in HR/9 allowed (1.67), and he's coughed up five across 17.2 innings against the Bronx Bombers this season. His 50.2% flyball and 10.3% barrel rates allowed -- both bottom 5% marks in baseball -- might have something to do with it.

Against righties at present, the Yanks' best power threat is arguably Giancarlo Stanton. The artist formerly known as Mike has turned around a slow start to crush orthodox pitchers for a .744 OPS, .288 ISO, 57.6% flyball rate, and 42.4% hard-hit rate in the past 30 days -- or 57 plate appearances (PAs).

Our projections have Stanton swatting 0.38 home runs at a median in today's game, which would imply closer to +216 odds for a bomb if correct.

Trevor Larnach to Hit a Home Run (+440)

For some reason, our projections want to pick on Cincinnati Reds righty Rhett Lowder. These are the odd spots they're usually correct.

Lowder's first 15.1 innings have produced a 0.59 ERA, but his 5.09 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA) implies much worse days are ahead. He is allowing a hard-hit ball on 42.9% of those in play, and importantly, he's yet to top 85 pitches in a start. That'll put a good chunk of this game in the hands of a Reds bullpen with the fourth-worst reliever xFIP in the past 30 days (4.29).

If we're picking on a right-hander, Trevor Larnach is not a bad place to start on the Minnesota Twins. Larnach has pummeled opposite-handed pitchers for a .912 OPS, .262 ISO, 41.0% flyball rate, and 41.0% hard-hit rate across his last 75 PAs -- yet has just four homers to show for his work.

FanDuel Research's projections see value on a fifth coming this afternoon. We'd set his odds closer to +387 for a home run based on a median projection of 0.23 dingers.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.