5 Best MLB Bets, Player Props, and Home Run Picks for Sunday 9/28/25

In a given MLB slate, you've got tons of markets to dig through, from totals to home runs and strikeout props.

Which bets stand out for today's games?

Below, I'm going to run through my favorite bets in FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB betting odds. You can get additional insights from our daily MLB player prop projections.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Today's Best MLB Bets, Player Props, and Home Run Picks

Colorado Rockies at San Francisco Giants

Giants -1.5 in First 5 Innings (-102)
Matt Chapman to Hit a Home Run (+480)

The Colorado Rockies are significant favorites...to add a 119th loss to their dismal 2025 record. One last mismatch awaits them in the Bay Area today.

A final home start for Logan Webb is great news for San Francisco Giants fans. Webb has a stellar 3.25 ERA at home this year, and his 2.80 xFIP suggests it could be better. Webb is an enormous advantage against a Rockies squad with MLB's third-worst OPS against righties in the past 30 days (.640). That seems impossible playing half your games at Coors Field.

Colorado's McCade Brown is coming off his best career start, but the 25-year-old's 5.34 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA) is still pretty ugly. He's had a poor combination of minimal whiff upside (9.5% swinging-strike rate) and too many free passes (13.8 BB%). The Giants also have MLB's fifth-best team OPS against righties (.760) in the same period of the Rox's ineptitude.

Both of these bullpens rank in the bottom five (by SIERA) over the past 30 days. I'll dodge both of them while expecting Webb stakes San Fran to an early lead.

Matt Chapman could help them build it.

Favorable winds for a right-handed bat should ring alarm bells about Chapman, who has a sizable 41.6% flyball rate against right-handed pitching this season. Surprisingly, 18 of his 21 homers have come via same-handed bats in 2025.

Brown's contact splits are ripe for a bomb. He's given up 1.35 HR/9 to right-handed bats with elevated flyball (38.9%) and hard-hit (44.4%) rates to that side of the dish.

Of course, as I mentioned, the Rockies' bullpen is also going through it, allowing the third-most HR/9 (1.29) over the last month. Unlike our first wager, this one could be live throughout all nine innings.

FanDuel Research's MLB player prop projections are with me, projecting Chappy for 0.27 HR on Sunday. We'd have expected to see him closer to +323 for a round trip.

Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewers

Brewers Moneyline (-130)
Freddy Peralta to Record 6+ Strikeouts (+158)

The final NL Wild Card spot will be decided today. It'll be the Cincinnati Reds' with a win or New York Mets loss. The opposite of those two outcomes puts the Metropolitans in the dance.

Unfortunately for Cincy, this is not going to be any easy task. They're underdogs against the Milwaukee Brewers in a sport where most teams will stay play starters and give it 100% on the final day.

The Brew Crew are pulling out all the stops with right-hander Freddy Peralta. Peralta's 3.70 SIERA and 28.2% K rate have shined in this All-Star campaign, and the Reds still haven't quite figured out this split all year. Even in just the past 30 days of good baseball, they're a bottom-12 club in wRC+ (92) and K rate (24.9%) when adjusting for their home park.

Milwaukee's wRC+ against righties (103) in this time has been much better, and Brady Singer (4.19 SIERA) is a weaker one. Singer's ERA is actually much worse on the road (4.74) than at Great American Ball Park, too.

Miraculously, Peralta has faced these division-rival Reds just once this season. He struck out nine over 6.0 innings. A similar outcome could await today as the Reds continue to struggle with whiffs in this split. Freddy has also turned up the heat with a 38.8% (!) K rate in September despite games with the San Diego Padres and Philadelphia Phillies.

Our projections expect 6.33 median Ks from today's starter, so extreme plus money on at least six is great value.

This is a painful prediction for Reds fans, but I believe Cincinnati loses control of their destiny today. Root on those Miami Marlins.

Pittsburgh Pirates at Atlanta Braves

Pirates Under 3.5 Runs (-148)

How can you not be romantic about baseball? At the request of Chris Sale, Charlie Morton will start Sunday in his final MLB game -- for the same team he made his debut with in 2008.

Frankly, Morton (4.38 SIERA) hasn't been atrocious if the Atlanta Braves wanted to lengthen his start, but it does seem that the righty will give way to Sale for the bulk of Sunday's game. Atlanta's season could have been very different if they had more of their southpaw, who has a phenomenal 2.30 SIERA and 35.6% K rate since returning from injury on August 30th.

Either should be able to tackle this dismal Pittsburgh Pirates offense, which is a bottom-five order in team OPS against lefties or righties in the past 30 days.

Considering Morton's ceremonious ending will lengthen Sale's outing, and the Bravos' bullpen (3.76 SIERA) has been okay in the past 30 days, I don't see an avenue to offense for the Buccos on Sunday night.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.