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MLB Best Bets, Player Props, and Home Run Picks for Sunday 10/6/24

Austin Swaim
Austin SwaimASwaim3

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MLB Best Bets, Player Props, and Home Run Picks for Sunday 10/6/24

Baseball has you covered if you want a large inventory of options to bet.

From moneylines to player props to home runs, we have plenty of ways to bet the long, arduous MLB schedule daily. Outlooks can be vastly different due to starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know if an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due for positive -- or negative -- regression.

Using numberFire's MLB predictions and FanDuel Research's MLB projections as a guide, which MLB odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated projections.

Today's Best MLB Bets and Player Props

New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies

Over 8.5 Runs (+100)

Total Runs

Over
Oct 6 8:09pm UTCMore odds in Sportsbook

Both of these teams have a path to score at MLB's ninth-best hitter's park. This unusually high total for a game in October actually makes some sense.

I don't have to sell the New York Mets' offense too hard to anyone right now. New York has totaled 29 runs in their last four meaningful contests, and they're a threat even against the Philadelphia Phillies' quality starter, Cristopher Sanchez. This is Sanchez's second postseason appearance, and he's up against a Mets offense with a lethal .794 OPS against lefties over the past 30 days. Philadelphia's bullpen has also struggled to a 4.23 xFIP in this time (ninth-worst in MLB overall).

It'll help the Phillies to keep pace -- and potentially win if a -148 moneyline is any indication -- that Luis Severino is a bit weaker than your normal postseason starter. Severino had a 3.88 expected ERA (xERA) this season and gave up three runs over six innings -- a decent start -- in the Wild Card round. Philly has torched righties for a .756 OPS over the past month, though. They're a step up in competition from the Milwaukee Brewers.

numberFire expects 8.78 median runs in this one.

San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers

Dodgers -0.5 in First 5 Innings (-113)

First 5 Innings Run Line
Los Angeles Dodgers

As Shohei Ohtani continues to look from another planet in the postseason, the Los Angeles Dodgers are in a good spot to get out to a fast start when seeking a 2-0 series lead over the San Diego Padres.

San Diego is sending Yu Darvish to the mound, and Darvish's 43.6% flyball and 39.3% hard-hit rates allowed this season are awfully vulnerable in a game where a swing or two could change everything. Add in a 4.19 career postseason ERA, and it's easy to like Jack Flaherty to outduel him over five innings.

Allowing 10 runs in his last three starts, Flaherty's recent form isn't amazing, but we can trust an arm that ranked 70th percentile or better this season in xERA (3.51), strikeout rate (29.9%), and hard-hit rate allowed (35.9%). One of those starts was a win over these Friars.

I'm looking to dodge L.A.'s bottom-10 bullpen over the last 30 days (4.28 xFIP) whenever I can, but Flaherty and the stronger offense -- led by Ohtani -- project well for early success.

Today's Best Home Run Prop Bets

Mookie Betts to Hit a Home Run (+420)

To Hit A Home Run
Mookie Betts

Mentioning Darvish's struggles with the two key ingredients for bombs, he's probably where we should turn in the dinger market.

If there's a Dodgers hitter that profiles for a homer today, it's Mookie Betts. First, Betts' handedness is an edge when Darvish has actually allowed a greater rate of HR/9 to same-handed matchups (1.49) than lefties (1.14).

Of course, there's also Mookie's work at the dish. Over the past 30 days, Betts is sporting a .706 OPS, .224 ISO, 58.2% flyball (!) rate, and 38.2% hard-hit rate against right-handed pitching. That's across 62 plate appearances.

He might be a touch undervalued in this market today. At 0.24 median home runs in our daily MLB projections, we'd set him closer to +369 for a long ball. Maybe he's the one that'll put the Dodgers out front after five.


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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.

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