Today's Best Bets for NFL Week 6

Week 6 of the NFL brings a few lines that are head-scratchers. We have an idea of which teams are good and which aren't, so why are the Baltimore Ravens one of the larger favorites of the day against the upstart Washington Commanders? Why are the Houston Texans such short road favorites in Foxboro? We might get some confusing results if FanDuel's correct.

Additionally, don't forget to check out FanDuel Research's NFL projections to see what numberFire's model expects from each player across key statistical categories.

Which value remains on the board in FanDuel Sportsbook's NFL betting odds? Let's check it out.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

Today's Best NFL Betting Picks

Cleveland Browns at Philadelphia Eagles

Browns +8.5 (-110)

As hideous as it is to back Deshaun Watson, feint dreams of Super Bowl LVII are the only reason bettors are laying 8.5 points with this current Philadelphia Eagles team.

On defense, Philadelphia is a bottom-eight team against both the rush and the pass, according to numberFire's schedule-adjusted efficiency metrics. On offense, Saquon Barkley has largely bailed out a passing offense that has been all out of sorts amidst injuries to DeVonta Smith and A.J. Brown. Both will play Sunday, but Jalen Hurts' struggles are the real issue, posting -0.03 expected points added per drop back (EPA/db) with six total turnovers in four games.

Watson's franchise-record struggles are noted, but the Cleveland Browns still hold nF's 17th-ranked defense and rushing offense. This is also the second-slowest combined adjusted tempo of all Week 6 matchups, according to Brandon Gdula's Week 6 adjusted pace and pass rate report. That makes every point -- much less a whopping 8.5 -- more valuable if this game sails under.

Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers

Over 46.5 Points (-110)
Diontae Johnson Over 5.5 Receptions (-108)

The Atlanta Falcons' "mini bye week" off Thursday Night Football in Week 5 likely hasn't turned their defense into the 1985 Chicago Bears. Expect points in Charlotte.

Surprisingly given the Carolina Panthers' early offensive ineptitude, the team is 4-1 to the over this season. That's largely due to a defense that numberFire, adjusting for schedule, ranks 31st against the pass and 21st against the rush. Their rush defense might not be a "strength" when giving up a league-high nine rushing TDs to running backs, though.

Carolina's certainly fared better with Andy Dalton (-0.11 EPA/db) than Bryce Young (-0.55), which might be undersold here off a tough matchup with the aforementioned Bears in Week 5. Atlanta ranks 21st against the pass and 20th against the rush.

With two poor defenses and the week's second-fastest adjusted tempo, this total should be closer to 50.

One of Dalton's best weapons since starting has been Diontae Johnson. Since Dalton took over in Week 3, Johnson has seen 11.0 targets per game, which is good for a team-high 33.0% of the Panthers' attempts. He's also run 84.4% of the team's routes.

Atlanta has been shredded by top receiving options in recent weeks. Rashee Rice, Chris Olave, and Chris Godwin -- leading their teams in respective target share -- averaged 8.3 catches against them, and Johnson's share of looks with Dalton compared to his teammates is higher than any of those three's for the season.

Projected to trail as 6.5-point 'dogs, I'll back the Black Cats' top wideout to catch at least six passes.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Las Vegas Raiders

Raiders Under 16.5 Points (-110)

This exact bet at this exact number didn't cash last week in Denver solely due to a pass deflection turned into a 57-yard touchdown. Oof.

We'll run it back here. The Las Vegas Raiders might take the cake for the most dysfunctional team in the NFL right now between the Davante Adams situation, a quarterback change, and a star defensive end beefing with Pat McAfee's guests. The real issue lies with an offense in the hands of Aidan O'Connell (-0.05 EPA/db) and Luke Getsy, though.

The Raiders are numberFire's fifth-worst offense and "play host" to numberFire's ninth-best defense this week, the Pittsburgh Steelers. There will be plenty of Terrible Towels in the transient Las Vegas crowd, though, so don't be surprised if the home team is using a silent count at some point.

Pittsburgh has surrendered 16.0 points per game overall, but this inconsistent Raiders offense without Adams, Michael Mayer (personal), and likely Jakobi Meyers (ankle) is running out of key pieces quickly. The Steelers' defensive line should have an edge against both the rush and the pass, limiting O'Connell's forecast in Week 6 quite substantially.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.