MLB Best Bets, Player Props, and Home Run Picks for Saturday 9/28/24

Baseball has you covered if you want a large inventory of options to bet.

From moneylines to player props to home runs, we have plenty of ways to bet the long, arduous MLB schedule daily. Outlooks can be vastly different due to starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know if an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due for positive -- or negative -- regression.

Using numberFire's MLB predictions and FanDuel Research's MLB projections as a guide, which MLB odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated projections.

Today's Best MLB Bets and Player Props

Tampa Bay Rays at Boston Red Sox

Rays Moneyline (+102)

Plus-money packages don't get much better than the Tampa Bay Rays here. Tampa arguably has the Boston Red Sox beat in starting pitching, offensive output, and the bullpen today.

Shane Baz will toe the slab for the Rays on Saturday. He's overcome a slow start to post a solid 3.73 expected ERA (xERA) and .227 expected batting average allowed (xBA). On the flip side, Boston's Kutter Crawford is MLB's qualifying leader in HR/9 allowed (1.66) with a 4.17 xERA.

As these righties square off, Tampa Bay also has the better offense in the split recently. They've posted a .650 team OPS to Boston's .622, which isn't even factoring in the significant edge that hitter-friendly Fenway Park should give them. They'll both benefit from it today.

Finally, in the bullpen, the Rays' reliever xFIP over the past month (3.59) also trounces the Sox's (4.16) by a pretty significant margin. With motivation not a factor for either team, I'll take the better one in all phases.

Texas Rangers at Los Angeles Angels

Over 8.5 (-105)

It's still warm in Orange County, so you'll have to explain to me how tonight's total doesn't start with a "9" as Andrew Heaney and Griffin Canning put to bed forgettable 2024 campaigns.

Heaney's wasn't horrendous, per a 4.40 xERA. He just continued to struggle with the long ball, ceding 1.21 HR/9. We'll get to some of the reasons why later.

It's really Canning who has brought up the rear across baseball on several metrics all season. Canning's 4.74 xERA, .262 xBA, and 17.1% strikeout rate all rank 25th percentile or worse across MLB qualifiers.

These are also two struggling bullpens, posting bottom-eight reliever xFIPs both over the last 30 days and for the entire season. There's a reason this game doesn't have any playoff implications.

numberFire expects 8.79 runs between these clubs tonight. This is the side of the total I'd rather have than squint my eyes at these bullpens late.

Today's Best Home Run Prop Bets

Teoscar Hernandez to Hit a Home Run (+310)

This is one of those Los Angeles Dodgers spots at Coors Field that is so inevitable and toxic that you really can't bet it in a traditional market.

L.A. is 53.5% implied at FanDuel to post at least seven runs, yet Teoscar Hernandez -- one of their central bats for damage -- has pretty fair odds for a bomb tonight. I'm not sure he should when he's ripped the cover off the baseball against righties to the tune of a .984 OPS, .260 ISO, 39.4% flyball, and 36.4% hard-hit rate over the past 30 days.

Righties don't come much weaker than Antonio Senzatela, making his third 2024 start for the Colorado Rockies tonight. Senzatela's managed a 7.92 xERA and coughed up 2.25 HR/9 to this point, and a struggling Rockies bullpen (4.12 xFIP over the past month) won't be much of a reprieve.

Even over teammate Shohei Ohtani, FanDuel Research's daily MLB projections have Hernandez projected for the most home runs of any hitter this evening (0.40). If correct, that would imply roughly +203 odds for a dinger.

Logan O'Hoppe to Hit a Home Run (+400)

Should we look at the good news or bad news for a Logan O'Hoppe homer in tonight's matchup?

Let's start with the good. Over the past 30 days, O'Hoppe has posted a 100% flyball rate and 100% hard-hit rate against lefties like Texas' Andrew Heaney. It quite literally couldn't get better for contact splits.

The problem? With a 58.3% K rate in this time, there hasn't been much contact. That's how he's posted a .300 OPS and .000 ISO in the same time.

I'm still willing to take the plunge against one of baseball's most notorious launching pads. Heaney has ceded at least 1.20 HR/9 each of the last nine campaigns, and with a flyball (44.8%) and hard-hit (39.8%) rate similar to 2024, it's no mystery as to why.

We've got O'Hoppe projected for 0.23 home runs in this matchup tonight, which would normally imply odds closer to +387 for a bomb. That might equal his odds to make any contact at all this evening, but at four-to-one odds, we can live a little.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.