Miami Dolphins vs Washington Commanders Prediction, Picks, Lineups, Odds and Best Bets

NFL Betting Picks in Summary

• Under 36.5
• 1st Half Under 19.5
• Dolphins -3.5

Miami and Washington open their 2026 preseason schedules Friday night, and this is a genuinely interesting one given everything both rosters are working through right now.

All NFL preseason odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook's NFL betting odds and may change after this article is published.

Depth Chart Notes

Miami: This is a rebuilt roster in nearly every sense — a new coaching staff took over this offseason, and the front office moved on from both Tua Tagovailoa and every receiver who topped 350 yards last season. Willis enters as the new starting quarterback and had looked capable through much of camp, but reports out of this week's joint practices with Washington were rough across the board — the offensive line, receivers and secondary all struggled.

Washington: Jayden Daniels is healthy and entering his second season after an impressive rookie year, now with Stefon Diggs added alongside Terry McLaurin at receiver. Washington ranked just 25th in the league in 20-plus-yard plays a year ago; the hope is a healthy Daniels and Diggs's downfield ability change that.

NFL Predictions and Picks for Preseason Week 1

Miami Dolphins at Washington Commanders (Fri, 7 p.m. ET)

Under 36.5 (-105)

Miami's offense is genuinely rebuilding from scratch — new staff, new quarterback, new receivers — and this week's joint practices reportedly went rough for that side of the ball specifically. A brand-new unit still finding its footing in game one is a reasonable bet to produce stalled drives rather than a shootout.

1st Half Under 19.5 (-125)

Same logic, tightened to the window where it matters most — first-half snaps are typically reserved for the starters and top backups on both sides, which is exactly the group Miami's offense struggled to move the ball with in joint practice.

Dolphins -3.5 (-115)

I'll admit some homer bias here, but I think it's a defensible one. Jeff Hafley is in year one of resetting the culture in Miami, and a rough joint-practice week is exactly the kind of thing a new staff uses as fuel rather than a red flag — new coaches tend to come out of that first live setting with something to prove, not something to hide from. The roster is young and still finding itself, but young rosters playing with genuine energy for a new coaching staff have a way of outperforming a clipboard evaluation. I like Miami to settle in and cover at home.