Mets vs Yankees Prediction, Odds, Moneyline, Spread & Over/Under for July 4

Odds updated as of 12:11 a.m.

The New York Mets versus the New York Yankees is on the MLB schedule for Friday.

All the information you need to make smart wagers on this matchup at FanDuel Sportsbook can be found below. Check out all of the latest MLB betting lines here.

Mets vs Yankees Game Info

• New York Mets (50-38) vs. New York Yankees (48-39)
• Date: Friday, July 4, 2025
• Time: 3:10 p.m. ET
• Venue: Citi Field -- Queens, New York
• Coverage: MLB Network, SNY, and YES

Mets vs Yankees Odds & Moneyline

• All MLB odds, betting lines and prop bets are available on FanDuel Sportsbook.
• Moneyline: NYM: (-112) | NYY: (-104)
• Spread: NYM: +1.5 (-178) | NYY: -1.5 (+146)
• Total: 9 -- Over: (-122) | Under: (-100)

Mets vs Yankees Probable Starting Pitchers

Probable Pitchers: Justin Hagenman (Mets) - 0-0, 1.50 ERA vs Marcus Stroman (Yankees) - 1-1, 8.16 ERA

The Mets will give the nod to Justin Hagenman and the Yankees will turn to Marcus Stroman (1-1, 8.16 ERA). Hagenman did not pitch as the moneyline favorite last season. The Yankees have gone 3-1-0 ATS in Stroman's four starts that had a set spread. The Yankees have always been the moneyline underdog when Stroman starts this season.

Mets vs Yankees Prediction & Pick

All MLB win probability predictions and picks are according to numberFire.
Prediction: Mets win (52.7%)

Mets vs Yankees Moneyline

• The Mets vs Yankees moneyline has the Mets as a -112 favorite, while the Yankees are a -104 underdog on the road.

Mets vs Yankees Spread

• The Mets are hosting the Yankees and are 1.5 on the runline and -178 to cover, while New York is +146 to cover the spread.

Mets vs Yankees Over/Under

• The over/under for Mets-Yankees on July 4 is 9. The over is -122, and the under is -100.

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Mets vs Yankees Betting Trends

• The Mets have been favorites in 58 games this season and have come away with the win 38 times (65.5%) in those contests.
• This year, the Mets have won 38 of 58 games when listed as at least -112 or better on the moneyline.
• The Mets and their opponents have hit the over in 36 of their 84 games with a total this season.
• The Mets have posted a record of 42-42-0 against the spread this season.
• The Yankees have been the moneyline underdog seven total times this season. They've finished 1-6 in those games.
• When they have played as a moneyline underdog with odds of -104 or longer, the Yankees have a record of 1-6 (14.3%).
• The Yankees have played in 86 games with a set over/under, and have combined with their opponents to go over the total 34 times (34-48-4).
• The Yankees have put together a 38-48-0 record against the spread this season.

Mets Player Leaders

• Juan Soto has 80 hits this season and a team-best OBP of .396. He has a .260 batting average and a slugging percentage of .500.
• Among qualified hitters in the majors, he is 76th in batting average, fourth in on-base percentage, and 23rd in slugging.
• Soto has picked up at least one hit in two straight games. In his last five games he is hitting .278 with three walks and two RBIs.
• Pete Alonso leads New York with 95 hits and a team-best slugging percentage of .532. He's batting .287 with an on-base percentage of .378.
• He ranks 27th in batting average, 16th in on-base percentage and 12th in slugging in MLB.
• Francisco Lindor has collected 90 base hits, an OBP of .329 and a slugging percentage of .455 this season.
• Lindor heads into this matchup with two games in a row with at least one hit. In his last five games he is hitting .250 with two doubles, a home run, a walk and three RBIs.
• Brandon Nimmo has been key for New York with 80 hits, an OBP of .313 plus a slugging percentage of .463.
• Nimmo brings a two-game hitting streak into this game. During his last five outings he is batting .286 with a double, two home runs and six RBIs.

Yankees Player Leaders

• Aaron Judge has racked up an on-base percentage of .474, a slugging percentage of .734, and has 116 hits, all club-bests for the Yankees (while batting .364).
• Including all qualified players in the big leagues, he is first in batting average, first in on-base percentage and first in slugging percentage.
• Judge brings a three-game hitting streak into this game. During his last five outings he is hitting .571 with two doubles, three home runs, nine walks and seven RBIs.
• Cody Bellinger has 15 doubles, three triples, 12 home runs and 28 walks while batting .269. He's slugging .456 with an on-base percentage of .327.
• He is 61st in batting average, 82nd in on-base percentage and 54th in slugging percentage in the majors.
• Paul Goldschmidt has 18 doubles, a triple, eight home runs and 27 walks while hitting .286.
• Trent Grisham is hitting .249 with seven doubles, a triple, 16 home runs and 39 walks.

Mets vs Yankees Head to Head

• 5/18/2025: 8-2 NYY (Favorite: Yankees, Spread: -1.5, Total: 9, Favorite Moneyline: -164, Underdog Moneyline: +138)
• 5/17/2025: 3-2 NYM (Favorite: Yankees, Spread: -1.5, Total: 10, Favorite Moneyline: -134, Underdog Moneyline: +114)
• 5/16/2025: 6-2 NYY (Favorite: Yankees, Spread: -1.5, Total: 9, Favorite Moneyline: -146, Underdog Moneyline: +124)
• 7/24/2024: 12-3 NYM (Favorite: Yankees, Spread: -1.5, Total: 8.5, Favorite Moneyline: -172, Underdog Moneyline: +144)
• 7/23/2024: 3-2 NYM (Favorite: Yankees, Spread: -1.5, Total: 9, Favorite Moneyline: -156, Underdog Moneyline: +132)
• 6/26/2024: 12-2 NYM (Favorite: Yankees, Spread: -1.5, Total: 8.5, Favorite Moneyline: -126, Underdog Moneyline: +108)
• 6/25/2024: 9-7 NYM (Favorite: Yankees, Spread: -1.5, Total: 8.5, Favorite Moneyline: -144, Underdog Moneyline: +122)
• 7/26/2023: 3-1 NYY (Favorite: Yankees, Spread: -1.5, Total: 8.5, Favorite Moneyline: -146, Underdog Moneyline: +124)
• 7/25/2023: 9-3 NYM (Favorite: Mets, Spread: -1.5, Total: 8.5, Favorite Moneyline: -116, Underdog Moneyline: -102)
• 6/14/2023: 4-3 NYM (Favorite: Mets, Spread: -1.5, Total: 7.5, Favorite Moneyline: -112, Underdog Moneyline: -104)

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