Knicks vs. Pacers: Betting Picks and Prediction for Game 6

The New York Knicks against the Indiana Pacers has been about as back and forth as it gets, but we haven't seen a competitive contest since Game 3. The Pacers won Game 4 by 32 points while the Knicks had a 30-point margin in their Game 5 win.

Indiana is back home in Gainbridge Fieldhouse and is looking to force a Game 7. The home team has won all five games in this series, and the Pacers are 3-0 this season when hosting New York. Will these trends continue for tonight's matchup?

Let's break down the matchup while looking at NBA odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook. Which game line holds the best value for Game 6?

All NBA odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook and may change after this article is published.

NBA Playoffs Betting

Knicks-Pacers Betting Odds

Date and Time: Friday, May 17th at 8:30 p.m. ET

Spread: Pacers -6 (-110)

Total: 215.5

Moneyline:

• Knicks: +198
• Pacers: -240

Knicks vs. Pacers Advanced Stats Breakdown

nERD via numberFire. Adjusted offensive/defensive ratings and pace via DunksAndThrees.

• Knicks:
  • nERD: 61.3 (7th)
  • Adjusted Offensive Rating: 117.4 (8th)
  • Adjusted Defensive Rating: 112.8 (8th)
  • Pace: 95.7 (30th)
  • Against-the-Spread Record: 44-37-1
• Pacers:
  • nERD: 56.3 (14th)
  • Adjusted Offensive Rating: 120.1 (2nd)
  • Adjusted Defensive Rating: 117.9 (24th)
  • Pace: 102.1 (2nd)
  • Against-the-Spread Record: 44-35-3

Knicks vs. Pacers Best Bet

Pacers Team Total Over 110.5 (-115)
Knicks +6.0 (-110)

The Pacers have enjoyed success at home against the Knicks. Not only is Indiana 3-0 in home games when facing the Knicks, but they've also gone 2-1 against the spread (ATS) in those games. However, New York is 1-1 ATS in away games during this series.

Since the injury to OG Anunoby, the spreads in each game have taken a huge turn. New York was favored by 6.0 and 4.5 points in the first two games of the series. Anunoby has missed the last three contests; the Knicks were 7.0 and 6.0-point underdogs in Game 3 and 4. In the most recent contest, New York was favored by only 1.5 points. Compare this to the Knicks first two home games; there was a significant difference in the spread.

New York is missing an exceptional defender in their lineup, and the Knicks' defense has already underachieved in the postseason. They had a 112.8 defensive rating during the regular season (eighth-lowest), which has rose to 117.9 in the playoffs (fourth-highest in postseason). Indiana has logged 116.0 points per game (PPG) at home in this series; I expect this kind of production to continue, making over 110.5 points for the Pacers an intriguing wager in my eyes.

Here's the biggest talking point for over 110.5: Indiana totaled 117.5 PPG through the first four games of this series. Game 5 was a stinker for the Pacers with only 91 points, but I think this was a one-off that shouldn't hold much weight. The Pacers attempted only 72 shots in the loss; they averaged 89.9 attempted field goals per game in their previous 10 contests in the playoffs.

Indiana also mustered only 36 points in the paint in Game 5. They led the Association with 56.8 points in the paint in the regular season and currently rank second among active teams with 44.6% of their points coming from in the paint. The Knicks are also giving up the third-most points in the paint among active teams in the playoffs. Before Game 5, the Pacers were tallying 60.0 points in the paint per game in this series. I expect Indiana to find success around the rim once again.

Now, let's focus on the spread. Whoever has won the rebounding battle has won all five games of this series. Along with the Pacers' failures in the paint last game, their outcome in the possession battle also felt a bit fluky. Indiana was outrebounded by 24 and turned the ball over 18 times. This led to New York attempting 29 more field goals. I highly doubt that these kind of numbers continue in Game 6. However, I'm still worried about the Pacers stopping the Knicks on the offensive glass.

New York currently has the highest offensive rebounding percentage in the playoffs while Indiana has the lowest defensive rebounding percentage among active teams. Can we rely on a team to keep winning the glass by over 20 boards? Probably not. But Game 5's result in the rebounding battle may have only been a matter of time. Even when the Pacers managed to win the rebounding battles in their victories in this series, the Knicks averaged 13.0 offensive rebounds per game. They are also logging 14.5 offensive boards each contest over the past four games.

I mentioned that Anunoby's absence impacts New York's defense, but their shooting splits actually improve without him on the court. In the regular season, the Knicks had a 53.8% effective field goal percentage (eFG%) overall. When Anunoby is not playing, their eFG% jumps to 54.9%. New York has the scoring to stay in this game, especially with Jalen Brunson coming off a 44-point eruption paired with his 32.0 PPG average in this series.

numberFire's game projections attach a 63.86% likelihood of the Knicks covering compared to the implied odds of 52.4% at this -110 price. Massey Ratings is also projecting only a three-point win for the Pacers. I'm in line with the models by backing New York.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.