Kentucky Derby Prep Races for 2026

Key Takeaways:

• Success in the Kentucky Derby often traces back to a handful of proven Road to the Kentucky Derby prep races, making it useful to weigh the historical strength of each prep when evaluating a crowded 20-horse field.
• The Florida Derby remains the most productive source of Kentucky Derby winners over time, with a long record of producing contenders who finish near the top at Churchill Downs.
• In recent decades, races like the Santa Anita Derby and Arkansas Derby have grown in importance, regularly sending competitive runners to Louisville and shaping the modern Derby landscape.
• While juvenile races still help identify early talent, results from two-year-old stakes such as the Breeders' Cup Juvenile are less predictive than they once were, making current-season form a more reliable guide.
• International entries into the Kentucky Derby prep season continue to expand the global reach of the Derby trail, but events like the UAE Derby have yet to consistently produce top finishers in the Run for the Roses.

The Kentucky Derby is the most extensively analyzed horse racing puzzle of the year. It’s no wonder: not only is it one of the most historic races in the world, but with 20 horses in the Kentucky Derby starting gate, the field size makes it an unparalleled betting opportunity. Furthermore, the months-long Kentucky Derby prep season means there is a long trail of data to collect and consider.

One of the critical questions when handicapping the Kentucky Derby is how to determine the relative strength of prep races. Though that’s not the only thing to consider – pace preferences, speed figures, pedigree, trainers, and jockeys also matter! – when judging horses coming from prep series all across the country, when other factors seem too close to call, it makes sense to give a little more weight to a horse from a traditionally live prep, especially if that horse is going to be a nice price on the first Saturday in May.

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Florida Derby is King

No race during the Kentucky Derby prep season has produced more winners of the Run for the Roses than the Florida Derby (G1). Between 1953 and 2025, 26 horses who started in Gulfstream Park’s premier Kentucky Derby prep have gone on to win the Run for the Roses, including 15 winners of that prep. All but four of those Kentucky Derby winners out of the Florida Derby finished in the top three as well, with the last off-the-board finisher there to win in Louisville being Go for Gin in 1994.

That trend isn’t just historically relevant, but also recently relevant: those 26 Kentucky Derby winners from the Florida Derby include eight in the 21st century. Two of the last three Kentucky Derby winners have improved from runner-up finishes in the Florida Derby to a win in the Kentucky Derby: Sovereignty did it in 2025, as well as Mage in 2023.

Santa Anita Derby Shines

The Santa Anita Derby has produced 19 winners of the Kentucky Derby. And, though that is not as many as the Blue Grass Stakes (23) or Wood Memorial (20), it is a far more relevant race in recent years.

Five Santa Anita Derby runners have gone on to win the Kentucky Derby in the 21st century. In that time frame, the Blue Grass has only produced one, and the Wood two. The Santa Anita Derby’s winners are also more recent: the last Blue Grass runner to win the Kentucky Derby was Street Sense in 2007, and the last Wood runner to do it was Funny Cide in 2003. However, the Santa Anita Derby has accounted for four winners since 2012 alone. It also accounted for the second- and third-place finishers in 2025: Journalism and Baeza went 1-2 in the Santa Anita Derby and then 2-3 behind Sovereignty in both the Kentucky Derby and Belmont.

Arkansas Derby Is the Rising Star

Although only eight horses have come out of the Arkansas Derby (G1) to win the Kentucky Derby, it has produced five winners in the 21st century, tying it with the Santa Anita Derby and putting it behind only the Florida Derby.

Notably, Arkansas Derby winners don’t have to have won Oaklawn’s final prep to go on and win in Kentucky, though all eight horses coming out of that race to win the roses hit the board in it. The last two Kentucky Derby winners to come out of the Arkansas Derby finished third: Mystik Dan in 2024, and Country House in 2019.

Two-Year-Old Stakes Are Less Indicative of Winners

Even though most Kentucky Derby winners still race at age two, it’s harder than it used to be to identify specific juvenile stakes that produce Kentucky Derby contenders.

Looking at the whole of Kentucky Derby history, it hasn’t always been that amorphous. A couple of two-year-old races were heavy hitters: 23 horses have run in the Champagne (G1) and gone on to win the Kentucky Derby, while 20 have contested the Hopeful (G1) and won the Run for the Roses. However, only Super Saver (2010) ran in the Champagne in the 21st century, and only I’ll Have Another (2012) ran in the Hopeful in that time frame.

The closest things to a notably live juvenile race nowadays are the Del Mar Futurity (G1) and the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. Three Kentucky Derby winners in the 21st century have run in each. Though only six Breeders’ Cup Juvenile runners have gone on to win the Kentucky Derby, three did so in the 21st century: Street Sense (2007), Mine That Bird (2009), and Nyquist (2016). Three of the seven horses have run in the Del Mar Futurity and gone on to win the Kentucky Derby, three did so in the 2010s: California Chrome (2014), Triple Crown winner American Pharoah (2015), and Nyquist (2016).

Other Kentucky Derby Prep Season Races to Watch

Especially for exotics players or price shoppers, considering which major prep races have produced a lot of recent money finishers in the Kentucky Derby can also help narrow down live price shots for Derby day.

Blue Grass Stakes

The Blue Grass has a muddled record, especially given Keeneland’s period with a synthetic track instead of conventional dirt, but even though only one Blue Grass runner has won the Kentucky Derby in the 21st century, a total of 13 horses have come from that race to hit the board in that time. The most recent was Sierra Leone in 2024, and he came within a nose of beating Mystik Dan.

Louisiana Derby

The Louisiana Derby accounts for another 12 money finishers in the 21st century, and has been an excellent place to look for long shots. Those include three winners, all of them price horses: Funny Cide (2003) was 12-1, Mandaloun (2021) was 26-1, and Country House (2019) was a dizzying 65-1. Some of the other money finishers were also real long shots, including Commanding Curve, second at 37-1 in 2014, and Golden Soul, second at 35-1 in 2013.

Risen Star

The Risen Star (G2) at Fair Grounds is not a final-round Road to the Kentucky Derby race, but rather the local prep for the Louisiana Derby. Even so, it has punched above its weight in recent years, with respect to producing horses who hit the board in the Kentucky Derby. Twelve Risen Star runners have hit the board in the Kentucky Derby in the 21st century, right on par with top-level final preps. That includes three long shot winners: Mandaloun, Country House, and 2002 victor War Admiral (20-1). Long shot placegetters who took a prep in the Risen Star include Commanding Curve, Golden Soul, and the 46-1 third-place finisher in 2020, Mr. Big News.

Two-Year-Old Races

Though two-year-old races correlate less with Kentucky Derby winners than before, there are still some that have been fairly dependable producers of money finishers in recent years.

The Breeders’ Cup Juvenile attracts a good mix of class and precocity every year, something that has translated to ten money finishers in the Kentucky Derby in the 21st century. Three were winners, most recently in 2016, but horses from that race have hit the board as recently as 2021—when Hot Rod Charlie and Essential Quality, the runner-up and winner at the Breeders’ Cup, placed second and third in the Run for the Roses (after the disqualification of Medina Spirit).

The Champagne Stakes remains historically important in this context. In addition to winner Super Saver, it has been a waypoint for five other money finishers in the Kentucky Derby in the 21st century. That includes four straight runners-up in Louisville: Good Magic (2018), Code of Honor (2019), Tiz the Law (2020), and Midnight Bourbon (2021).

One newer two-year-old race worth watching is the Street Sense (G3) at Churchill Downs. The race was only instituted in 2013, but has already produced three horses in the Kentucky Derby superfecta. Improbable, fourth in the 2019 Kentucky Derby, won the 2018 Street Sense in only his second starts. Two Phil’s, the 2022 Street Sense winner, was the runner-up in the Run for the Roses the next year. Sovereignty, who broke his maiden in the 2024 Street Sense, became the first Kentucky Derby winner to come out of Churchill Downs’ newest juvenile feature.

International Prep Races

No horse who has prepared for the Kentucky Derby overseas has won the Kentucky Derby yet, though Forever Young came just two noses short in 2024.

Until 2024, the UAE Derby (G2) was a 100-point prep on the conventional American Road to the Kentucky Derby. Starting in 2025, it was merged with the European spur to make a European-Middle East Road to the Kentucky Derby. The way that is structured, the winner is basically assured a spot in the Kentucky Derby, and the second-place finisher gets enough qualifying points to be in a good spot as well – this spur of the trail qualifies two horses to the Run for the Roses.

However, the UAE Derby still needs to prove itself on the Kentucky Derby trail. Twenty Kentucky Derby starters have come out of that race, and Forever Young’s close third-place finish in 2024 makes him the only horse so far to come out of that race and hit the board in Kentucky. Before that, the best Kentucky Derby finish for a UAE Derby horse was Curule’s seventh-place effort in 2000, 9 ¼ lengths behind Fusaichi Pegasus.

Looking to the Japan Road to the Kentucky Derby, no horse who has earned their way to Kentucky from that prep series has hit the board in the Kentucky Derby. The best finish for a horse who made it to Kentucky that way came in 2024, when Fukuryu Stakes winner T O Password finished fifth. However, there is a caveat: Forever Young did run in the Zen-Nippon Nisai Yushun, part of Japan’s road to the Derby, but actually earned his bid to Kentucky at Meydan.

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