3 Horses Who Could Win the 2026 Triple Crown

The Kentucky Derby is coming up Saturday, May 3, at Churchill Downs. It is just the first part of the arduous series of three-year-old races known as the Triple Crown – and though there is still a long way from winning the Kentucky Derby to achieving the most prestigious feat in horse racing, there’s no way to become a Triple Crown champion without winning the Run for the Roses first.

The Kentucky Derby is a challenge unlike any that the runners have ever seen. It requires the stamina to last 1 ¼ miles, a distance longer than any of the horses in the race have ever tried. It requires the ability to work out a trip in a chaotic 20-horse Derby field, and in many cases, the ability to handle a difficult gate.

The Triple Crown races get even more difficult, with the Preakness Stakes at Pimlico Race Course on the third Saturday in May, and then the Belmont Stakes at Saratoga three weeks after that, in early June. The third and final leg of the Triple Crown is usually run at Belmont Park, but with that track still under construction, the Belmont Stakes will be run one last time at Saratoga in upstate New York in 2026.

To become a Triple Crown winner, a horse needs to stay in form through that entire series, run at their best all three times, and perhaps get some good luck from a trip perspective. And, you only get one shot: since the Triple Crown is limited to three-year-old horses, no one gets a redo. No wonder only thirteen horses in the history of Thoroughbred racing have become Triple Crown winners since Sir Barton in 1919, running through to American Pharoah and Justify in the 21st century.

But, of course, the journey of a thousand miles begins with a single step, and the journey to becoming a Triple Crown winner begins with the Kentucky Derby. These are three horses who have shown the talent to perhaps become the 2026 Triple Crown winner … but only if they can find the wire first on the first Saturday in May.

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Triple Crown 2026: Horses Who Could Win the Triple Crown

1. Commandment

Although the favorite in the Kentucky Derby is probably going to be Arkansas Derby (G1) winner Renegade – and if not him, 11-length Blue Grass Stakes (G1) winner Further Ado – there’s a strong argument that the 2026 Kentucky Derby favorite really ought to be the favorite. Yes, his final-prep margin was a nose compared to the gaping chasms between Renegade and Silent Tactic, or Further Ado and Ottinho … but the horses just behind him in the Florida Derby were The Puma and Chief Wallabee, two other top Kentucky Derby prospects.

The Brad Cox trainee has won four races in a row, and built a nice foundation in a career that dates back to last October. Though he was defeated on debut, he was closing up ground, and based on both his pedigree and his race performance, six furlongs just wasn’t enough distance. He graduated next out at Churchill Downs, proving both that he could handle the footing and that he could show more tactical pace than he exhibited on debut. He then won three straight stakes races at Gulfstream over gradually lengthening distances: the one-mile Mucho Macho Man, the 1 1/16-mile Fountain of Youth (G2), and then the 1 ⅛-mile Florida Derby. And, being by three-time Kentucky Derby winning sire Into Mischief out of an Orb mare with some distance form in the family, it’s not out of the question for Commandment to keep progressing.

His running style and the pace scenarios he has handled build confidence that he is adaptable enough for the Triple Crown series. He has won races with a slow pace in front of him, a modest pace, or even a sharp pace, as he had in his maiden win at Churchill. This means he should be able to rally into all the early speed in the Derby – as well as work a more tactical trip if the Preakness Stakes and Belmont Stakes don’t attract so much front-end gas.

2. The Puma

The first step toward winning the Triple Crown is winning the Kentucky Derby, and The Puma is in a great spot to do just that. Like Commandment, he comes out of the strongest Kentucky Derby prep race of the season, the Florida Derby. He drew well in a nice middle gate. He gets plenty of pace to close into. And, his jockey Javier Castellano pulled a late-running rabbit out of his hat in 2023 with Mage – proving that he can time a run just right going 1 ¼ miles at Churchill Downs.

Should he win the Kentucky Derby, something that makes The Puma interesting going forward, especially for the Preakness, is the possibility of pace versatility. Though he has settled off the pace in his last two starts, he battled on the lead in his debut, only being run down late by Chief Wallabee, who has also developed into a top Kentucky Derby prospect. It was a good enough effort to suggest that he can show some zip if he needs it. And, even if he’s running from off the pace, he gets moving early enough to not leave him too much to do late.

The Puma’s pedigree is also a serious point in his favor. He is sired by Essential Quality, a Belmont-winning son of Tapit whose progeny already have a 7.3-furlong average winning distance despite the fact that his oldest foals are only three this year. That’s a huge early sign that his foals want to run long. And, he is out of a Declaration of War mare with plenty of two-turn form in the family, meaning he’s got stamina on top of stamina.

Perhaps the biggest question surrounding Puma is the lack of a race at age two. He didn’t make his debut until January 10. However, he proved himself against tough company in his four starts. And, it’s hard to put as much stock in the Curse of Apollo as handicappers used to – two horses who didn’t race at two have won the Kentucky Derby in the last eight years. One, Justify, became the 2018 Triple Crown winner after becoming the first horse since Apollo to win the Derby without a juvenile start. The other horse to break that trend? Mage, trained by Gustavo Delgado, who also conditions The Puma.

3. Renegade

Likely Kentucky Derby favorite Renegade followed a strange trajectory to that place at the top of the market. The Todd Pletcher trainee was beaten 18 lengths on debut in a sprint at Saratoga, and though he crossed the wire first in a maiden mile at Aqueduct on December 6, he was disqualified behind Paladin. Paladin then beat him on the square in the Remsen (G2), winning by two lengths. It was Paladin, not Renegade, who assumed the spot at the top of the Kentucky Derby futures after champion juvenile Ted Noffey was sidelined with bone bruising.

Then, Renegade put it all together at age three. He broke his maiden in the Sam F. Davis, winning strongly over a field that included The Puma, who ran third. On March 28, two things happened. That morning, Paladin suffered a condylar fracture in a work – it was non-displaced, treatable, but it took him off the Kentucky Derby trail. That afternoon, Renegade won the Arkansas Derby impressively, rallying clear to win by four lengths over Silent Tactic.

Perhaps the roughest moment of Renegade’s three-year-old year so far happened on April 25, a day he didn’t even race. Renegade drew the rail in the Kentucky Derby. The rail in a field of 20 can be a chaotic mess. The last time a Kentucky Derby winner broke from the rail and won was forty years ago, when Ferdinand did it. Todd Pletcher and Irad Ortiz, Jr. had a solid Kentucky Derby contender in 2021, Florida Derby (G1) winner Known Agenda … who broke from the fence, had a rough trip, and ran off the board.

A lot needs to go right for Renegade to win the first leg of the Triple Crown. He needs to buck that rail trend, and he needs jockey Irad Ortiz, Jr. to not only win his first Kentucky Derby, but hit the board for the first time in the Derby. But, Renegade’s late-running style does suit the pace flow of the race – and he should get a better setup in the Kentucky Derby than he did in either of his three-year-old preps. So, if Ortiz can stay out of trouble from the challenging gate and come home with a flourish? That’s one leg down.

Of course, the Preakness will be another challenge – that’s a race Todd Pletcher has yet to win – but Renegade has the raw talent, he has the distance pedigree, and he may be Todd Pletcher’s best chance yet to sweep the classics … if he can just overcome the fence in Louisville.

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