Kentucky Derby 2025 Picks: 3 Dark Horses

Up to 20 horses run in the Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs every year. Especially in 2025, with such a hot favorite as Journalism, most of the field will be long shots. But—even in a year with a favorite who looks quite good—there’s a lot of room for long shots to outrun their odds, or even win the whole thing.

After all, none of the horses have tried 1 ¼ miles before. Final round preps on the road to the Kentucky Derby, like the Florida Derby (G1), Arkansas Derby (G1), and Santa Anita Derby (G1) typically cover 1 ⅛ miles. The longest, the Louisiana Derby (G2) and UAE Derby (G2), only go 1 3/16 miles, the Preakness distance.

None of the horses have run in a 20-horse field before, either. Not to mention, such a large field size can always add up to some chaos, and a lot of luck in order to get not just a good trip, but the winning one. If the favorites get snarled up in a mass of horses, that could give a pace-advantaged long shot, or one who got a particularly shrewd ride, the right trip to win.

When planning your betting strategy, make sure to pay attention to form, pace, and the latest Kentucky Derby news. But don’t forget about these three price horses, who might just shock the world on Derby day like Rich Strike, Country House, or Mine That Bird before them.

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1. Chunk of Gold - 30-1 ML

The advent of the Kentucky Derby points system increased the emphasis on longer prep races, making it far less likely for the Kentucky Derby pace to feature a bunch of sprinters burning themselves out and setting up for closers. However, it still happens sometimes that some intrepid speed horses will duel each other into submission and set up for a long shot closer, like Rich Strike in 2022.

The 2025 Kentucky Derby field has more one-way speed than any edition since the beginning of the points system. Citizen Bull, Rodriguez, East Avenue, and Owen Almighty all need the lead, and American Promise won’t be too far behind, either. Those early fractions are going to sizzle, and that’s great news for Chunk of Gold.

Chunk of Gold is still looking for his first stakes win, but earned enough qualifying points at Fair Grounds with runner-up finishes in the Louisiana Derby and the Risen Star (G2) to comfortably earn a spot in the Run for the Roses. He was perhaps a little closer to a hot pace than he wanted to be in the Louisiana Derby, but still made a good run of it and stayed on for the place. A trip more like what he got in the Leonatus or Risen Star is more likely.

His under-the-radar connections will help the price—and though it is trainer Ethan West’s first time on the Derby trail, jockey Jareth Loveberry has been here before with Two Phil’s. Loveberry won the 2023 Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3) with Two Phil’s and then gave him a brilliant ride in the Kentucky Derby, ultimately finishing second to Mage.

Finally, there’s also pedigree appeal. His young sire Preservationist, a long-winded son of Arch, won the 1 ¼-mile Suburban. Damsire Cairo Prince was also bred to stay, and his dam is half to My Boy Jack, who ran a credible fifth in the Kentucky Derby behind Justify.

2. Grande - 20-1 ML

Few people have more Kentucky Derby experience than trainer Todd Pletcher and jockey John Velazquez. Pletcher has started 65 horses in the Kentucky Derby, more than any trainer in history. Velazquez has ridden 26 times in the Run for the Roses, tied with Bill Shoemaker in second, and behind only the ageless Mike Smith’s 28.

Their Kentucky Derby horse, on the other hand, may fly under the radar this year because he has so little experience. Grande has only raced three times, including only one start in a stakes race. But he has the talent and the pedigree for the Kentucky Derby.

Grande did not debut until January at Gulfstream Park, stalking the pace before clearing off to win by 2 ½ lengths over the one-turn mile. Pletcher ran him back in an allowance for his first two-turn try in February. Once again, he stalked the pace, took over, and won by the same 2 ½ length margin.

After those two races, he stepped up to a Kentucky Derby prep. However, instead of staying at Gulfstream for the Florida Derby, Pletcher shipped him north to run in the Wood Memorial (G2). Even though he didn’t win, he showed a lot of upside for the Kentucky Derby. He didn’t work that stalking trip; instead, he was toward the rear of midfield early, dealt with a wide trip early, and had to make up ground. And, though he didn’t reel in uncontested leader Rodriguez in the end, he kept on with interest to finish a clear second.

That ability to run well while a little further from the pace could do him a lot of good in a Kentucky Derby with so much early speed signed on. His pedigree also boosts his chances. Grande is by none other than Curlin, perhaps the premier dirt stamina merchant nowadays. Looking into his dam’s side, his dam Journey Home was a graded-stakes-winning turf router, his second dam Soul Search hit the board in both the Spinster (G1) and the Personal Ensign (G1), and another Curlin baby in his female family tree is the hard-knocking Solar Maximus, who shined for a few years in marathon starter allowances.

3. Final Gambit - 30-1 ML

Final Gambit tries dirt for the first time on the first Saturday in May at Churchill Downs—but just ask the connections of 2011 Kentucky Derby winner Animal Kingdom. If your horse is good enough, a lack of dirt experience is not going to get in the way.

The big appeal for Final Gambit is his running style. In both a one-mile maiden win at Turfway Park in February as well as an even more emphatic victory in the Jeff Ruby Steaks there the next month, Final Gambit closed like a freight train. In a race with so many need-the-lead types signed on, that running style is going to be a benefit … and with the pace in the Jeff Ruby honest but not truly torrid, Final Gambit likely gets an even better setup at Churchill Downs.

Even though Final Gambit has only ever run on turf and Tapeta, his pedigree suggests that dirt could suit him. Sire Not This Time was a Grade 3 winner and Grade 1-placed on dirt, and has gone on to become one of the best sires in the game. Not This Time can throw a good horse on any surface: he sired champion three-year-old and Kentucky Derby runner-up Epicenter, as well as long-winded turf champion Up to the Mark.

His damsire is Belmont Stakes super-sire Tapit, which adds some dirt influence to a nice European turf family. His dam Pachinko’s only win came in a maiden special weight turf mile, but she is half to several serious lawnmowers like Announce, winner of the Prix Jean Romanet (G1) at 1 ¼ miles, and Mexican Gold, winner of the Prix de la Grotte (G3) at a mile.

Top and bottom, it looks like Final Gambit should take well to the Kentucky Derby distance, and there is enough dirt in his pedigree to think this Brad Cox trainee has a shot, especially with the right running style.

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