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Kentucky Derby 2025 Exacta and Trifecta Picks and Predictions
The Kentucky Derby happens at Churchill Downs on Saturday, May 3.
The Run for the Roses is one of the best betting opportunities in all of sports. The race attracts a top-class field thanks to its $5 million purse and its place in history. The 20-horse field ensures that there are always live longshots whom the public sleeps on. And, with a six-month prep season and so much news around horses working toward the big race, there is a lot of information that can help you be an informed bettor.
One of the best ways to cash big on the Kentucky Derby is by playing exactas and trifectas. There is usually a long shot or two who runs in the top few places of the Kentucky Derby, and even playing long shots with more conventional favorites can produce big payouts. For example, in last year’s Kentucky Derby, 18-1 Mystik Dan won, with 9-2 second choice Sierra Leone in second and 7-1 third choice Forever Young in third. Even with some well-bet horses, the $2 exacta paid $258.56, and the $0.50 trifecta paid $556.92!
Get ready to bet on the Kentucky Derby winner with FanDuel Racing. Explore the exciting 2025 Derby promos available on FDR. Stay updated on the Kentucky Derby Odds and Contenders as we approach the Run for the Roses!
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How to Bet Exactas and Trifectas
Before you start your Kentucky Derby betting, it is a good idea to learn what exactas and trifectas are, what strategies exist for betting them, and the costs and benefits of those strategies.
What Are Exactas and Trifectas?
The classic win bet is just that: the bet cashes if your horse wins. Exactas and trifectas are just an extension of that: instead of betting on just the first horse to cross the wire, you are betting on the first few horses across the wire.
To cash an exacta, you need to have the first two finishers in the correct order. In a trifecta, you are betting on the first three horses to finish, in order. These are harder to get correct than just picking a winner. However, especially in races like the Kentucky Derby with huge fields, getting them correct can lead to a huge payout.
Horse Racing Exacta and Trifecta Betting Strategies
These are the basic strategies for betting exactas and trifectas.
Straight Exacta or Trifecta: One Combination
You can bet the exacta or trifecta straight, just one sequence or two or three horses. However, this is uncommon, especially in races with fields as big as the Kentucky Derby. If you have a very strong opinion that one horse is likely to finish first and another horse is likely to finish second, a straight exacta can be the right move in a race. However, it is more common to bet multiple possible combinations, and the large payouts when a live long shot runs into the top two or three can make this a profitable strategy.
Boxed Exacta or Trifecta
The opposite of betting a single combination is by betting an exacta box or a trifecta box. In a box, you are taking a group of horses you think can finish in the top two or three and betting all possible combinations of groups of those horses finishing first or second for an exacta, or first, second, and third for a trifecta.
A box can make sense if you have a short list of horses you want to play, especially if most or all of them are long shots. But, the price escalates rapidly: for example, if you play a trifecta box, and you think there are seven horses with a chance at the top three, and you want to play every combination? There are seven possible horses who can win, then six possible horses behind each of those, then five possible horses who can be third behind those two. That’s seven times six times five—or, 210 combinations.
These are the common costs of exacta and trifecta boxes at the minimum bets offered by Churchill Downs:
# of horses | Exacta box combinations | $1 exacta box cost | Trifecta box combinations | $0.50 trifecta box cost |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 (2 * 1) | $2.00 | n/a | n/a |
| 3 | 6 (3 * 2) | $6.00 | 6 (3 * 2 * 1) | $3.00 |
| 4 | 12 (4 * 3) | $12.00 | 24 (4 * 3 * 2) | $12.00 |
| 5 | 20 (5 * 4) | $20.00 | 60 (5 * 4 * 3) | $30.00 |
| 6 | 30 (6 * 5) | $30.00 | 120 (6 * 5 * 4) | $60.00 |
| 7 | 42 (7 * 6) | $42.00 | 210 (7 * 6 * 5) | $105.00 |
| 8 | 56 (8 * 7) | $56.00 | 336 (8 * 7 * 6) | $168.00 |
Another issue with boxing exactas or trifectas is that they usually do not reflect your actual opinion on a race. A boxed bet suggests that you have a similar opinion on each horse’s chances to finish in the top two or three, since you put the same amount of money on each combination. However, if you have a horse or two who you think are more likely to finish high, or even finish in a particular spot, you are essentially wasting money by betting just as much on extremely unlikely combinations as you are on the ones that involve the horse or horses you think will run well.
Using a Key Horse in Exactas and Trifectas
You can cover multiple combinations while focusing on stronger opinions by using a key horse. A key horse is just like it sounds: they are the key to your bet, and you are leaning on them to finish in a certain position.
One way of using a key horse is by betting for a horse to finish in a particular position in your exacta or trifecta. This is most often done by keying a horse to win (“keying on top”), though you can also key a horse in second or third. For example, if a horse finishes second often, keying a horse in second in exactas and trifectas can be just the right move.
Then, you just play the other horses you think can finish in the exacta or trifecta in the other spots where you do not have your key horse. You have fewer winning combinations since the key horse has to finish in the spot where you placed them, but also, you are putting your money on your opinion about that one horse.
# of horses | Exacta key combinations | $1 exacta key cost | Trifecta key combinations | $0.50 trifecta key cost |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 key + 2 others | 2 (1 * 2) | $2.00 | 2 (1 * 2 * 1) | $1.00 |
| 1 key + 3 others | 3 (1 * 3) | $3.00 | 6 (1 * 3 * 2) | $3.00 |
| 1 key + 4 others | 4 (1 * 4) | $4.00 | 12 (1 * 4 * 3) | $6.00 |
| 1 key + 5 others | 5 (1 * 5) | $5.00 | 20 (1 * 5 * 4) | $10.00 |
| 1 key + 6 others | 6 (1 * 6) | $6.00 | 30 (1 * 6 * 5) | $15.00 |
| 1 key + 7 others | 7 (1 * 7) | $7.00 | 42 (1 * 7 * 6) | $21.00 |
Finally, a good middle ground between a key and a box can be a wager sometimes called a “key box.” In an exacta key box, you are wagering on a situation that has your keyed horse finishing either first or second, with any of your other horses of interest in the other spot: it’s basically two separate key bets, one keying them in first and one keying them in second. The trifecta key box works similarly, except it’s like three key bets at once: one keying them in first, one keying them in second, and one keying the horse third.
# of horses | Exacta key box combinations | $1 exacta key box cost | Trifecta key box combinations | $0.50 trifecta key cost |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 key + 2 others | 4 (1 * 2 * 2) | $4.00 | 6 (1 * 2 * 1 * 3) | $3.00 |
| 1 key + 3 others | 6 (1 * 3 * 2) | $6.00 | 18 (1 * 3 * 2 * 3) | $9.00 |
| 1 key + 4 others | 8 (1 * 4 * 2) | $8.00 | 36 (1 * 4 * 3 * 3) | $18.00 |
| 1 key + 5 others | 10 (1 * 5 * 2) | $10.00 | 60 (1 * 5 * 4 * 3) | $30.00 |
| 1 key + 6 others | 12 (1 * 6 * 2) | $12.00 | 90 (1 * 6 * 5 * 3) | $45.00 |
| 1 key + 7 others | 14 (1 * 7 * 2) | $14.00 | 126 (1 * 7 * 6 * 3) | $63.00 |
Especially given the large field size and the potential for chaos in the Kentucky Derby, this can be a useful wager structure when betting Kentucky Derby exactas and trifectas. Even the best horse on the day can finish second or third due to trip trouble, and in such a large field, the risk versus reward ratio often merits the cost of covering situations in which your key horse finishes anywhere in the exacta or trifecta.
2025 Kentucky Derby Field
You know the mechanics of exactas and trifectas, so it’s time to meet the 2025 Kentucky Derby field and start building those bets! These are the 2025 Kentucky Derby horses along with the post positions, trainers, and morning-line odds for each runner:
Up to 20 horses can run in the Kentucky Derby. Thus, Baeza only gets in if there is a scratch ahead of him before the deadline, 9 a.m. EDT on Friday. If Baeza gets into the field, Flavien Prat will ride him with first priority. If Baeza does not draw in, Prat will ride Neoequos.
Kentucky Derby Contenders
These are the key horses for wagers on the 2025 Kentucky Derby.
Exacta and Trifecta Key
Burnham Square is the key for exactas and trifectas in the 2025 Kentucky Derby.
After winning the Holy Bull (G3) and running fourth behind Sovereignty in the Fountain of Youth (G2), Burnham Square ended his road to the Kentucky Derby with a nose victory in the Blue Grass Stakes (G1) at Keeneland. He just barely nailed East Avenue at the wire, but that day East Avenue had an uncontested lead.
The pace in the first jewel of the Triple Crown should set up even better for Burnham Square. With four horses in the field who have not been able to win unless they set the pace, as well as another likely presser in American Promise, he should be able to get a fiery pace to close into. And, if it turns out that Churchill Downs is playing tough for real closers, Burnham Square is tactical enough to sit a little closer than the really deep closers.
More Kentucky Derby Exacta and Trifecta Contenders
Of course, the key is only part of hitting the exacta and trifecta on Derby day. You also have to combine that key horse with other contenders who run well.
Journalism is the likely favorite, and deservedly so. He is undefeated in four two-turn starts, and has won at three different tracks. He beat a lot of good horses on the southern California spur of the road to the Kentucky Derby, so he has the class. He isn’t a closer, but he is tactical enough to stay out of a battle for the early lead, and he can uncork very good late pace even from that tracking spot. And, in his Santa Anita Derby victory, he showed that he can stay interested and fight on even with a tough trip. In the chaos of the Derby, that could be his biggest weapon of all.
Sovereignty is a quality closer who should be able to take advantage of the contested early pace in the Kentucky Derby. He rallied to win the Fountain of Youth (G2) at Gulfstream Park in his sophomore debut, and ran a credible second behind the more forwardly-placed Tappan Street in his last prep, the Florida Derby (G1). The return to Churchill Downs should be good, too—Sovereignty broke his maiden in a five-length romp in the Street Sense (G3) over the course last year.
Chunk of Gold still seeks his first stakes win, but he comes into the Kentucky Derby off of a pair of runner-up finishes at Fair Grounds, in the Risen Star (G2) and the Louisiana Derby (G2). Though he has yet to get all the way there against class horses, he is a plucky sort who likes to sit off the pace and always fires. There’s often a horse like that who invades the Kentucky Derby exotics at a huge price, and with underrated jockey Jareth Loveberry in the irons, Chunk of Gold could be the one.
Grande only has three races, but the Todd Pletcher trainee has shown a lot in those three starts. In maiden and allowance wins at Gulfstream, he tracked the pace and took command, while he was able to sit further back and rally for the place behind Rodriguez in the Wood Memorial (G2). That new dimension should serve him well with all the early pace signed on for the race, as should his strong stamina pedigree.
Kentucky Derby Bet-Againsts
In short, take a stand against horses who need the early lead in the Kentucky Derby: there are several horses who have not proven that they have a tactical gear, and have only been able to win if they lead at every call. With multiple horses in this year’s field with that running style, they are likely to burn each other out.
Some of them, like Neoequos and Owen Almighty, are likely to be long shots. However, there could be some betting interest in the pair of horses Bob Baffert sends, Citizen Bull and Rodriguez. Baffert is drawing a lot of attention in the Kentucky Derby this year, as it is his return to the race after a three-year suspension. Though Baffert has won the Kentucky Derby six times, including two Triple Crowns, there are reasons to be suspicious of his two runners.
Citizen Bull was the juvenile champion last year, but comes out of a poor effort in the Santa Anita Derby and does not appear to be progressing the way he needs to in order to be a serious Kentucky Derby contender. Rodriguez has better recent form, by virtue of a victory in the Wood Memorial last out. However, he got his own way on the lead, and he has yet to win in any other way. With so much one-way speed signed on, Rodriguez will have it a lot tougher this time.
2025 Kentucky Derby Best Bets
Here are our recommended exacta and trifecta bets for the 2025 Kentucky Derby:
- Kentucky Derby exacta bet: Key box #9 Burnham Square with #8 Journalism, #18 Sovereignty, #19 Chunk of Gold
- Kentucky Derby trifecta bet: Key box #9 Burnham Square with #8 Journalism, #10 Grande, #18 Sovereignty, #19 Chunk of Gold
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