Japanese Grand Prix Win Simulations: How Much Should We Downgrade Red Bull?

For the first time all year, Red Bull finally looked mortal in Singapore.

Carlos Sainz got the win, ending Red Bull's reign of terror 14-race streak atop the podium to open 2023.

That leaves one big question going forward: how much do we downgrade Red Bull?

On one hand, it's just a single race. Both Max Verstappen and Sergio Perez qualified poorly at a track where it's tough to pass, and an ill-timed safety car put them on the wrong strategy. Everything that could go wrong did go wrong.

On the other, their struggles came the exact weekend the FIA introduced new technical directives that influenced the amount of flexibility cars can have in the front wing and the underfloor. Red Bull team principal Christian Horner said this rule change did not play a role in their struggles, but it leaves open the possibility that Red Bull's slide was more than just variance.

Frankly, I can't answer how much we should downgrade Red Bull. What I can do is take data from Singapore, plug it into the model, increase the uncertainty a bit, and see what it spits out.

Based on that, here's where the sims have things prior to practice for the Japanese Grand Prix.

Even with the Singapore data and increased uncertainty, the model still has Red Bull's win odds at 69.7%. FanDuel Sportsbook's F1 betting odds have Red Bull at -440, which translates to 81.5% implied odds, so I am below market on them. I'm guessing the real answer is somewhere between those two probabilities.

Either way, there's more win equity up for grabs now than there was before. That leads to value on both Sainz and Lewis Hamilton to win this weekend at +2200.

I'm a bit wary of Sainz in large part because the sims have a larger gap between him and Charles Leclerc than I think they should. Granted, if we evenly distribute win equity between the two Ferraris, their win odds would be 5.6%. That's still above market for Sainz. However, when you combine that with the potential for Red Bull to be undervalued, that's when I get queasy.

Instead, I'd rather go back to the Sainz podium market. There, Sainz is +270 (27.0% implied). That is lower than the sims, which put him at 37.0%. Sainz has podiumed in consecutive races at two very different tracks, so I'm on board with this route to exposure.

The other repeat value is Pierre Gasly. The sims have Gasly inside the top six 11.5% of the time, up from 7.1% implied at +1300. Gasly keeps having issues in qualifying, so this could age poorly.

But Gasly still managed a sixth-place run (aided by good fortune) last week even after missing the final round of qualifying, and Alpine's speed has been better since recent upgrades. I once again agree with the sims that Gasly is undervalued.

The last one requires more convincing. That's Logan Sargent to finish top 10 -- which is 18.5% in the sims, up from 10.5% implied at +850.

First off, this is not the longest number you can get Sargent at. That should be clue number-one that the sims are too high on him.

Second, Sargent has struggled mightily, even with the upgrades Williams has brought over the summer.

Those upgrades are why the sims are showing faith in him, so I get it. His speed has been better recently than it was at the beginning of the season. I just might need to see a bit more life before I actually buy into what they're saying.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.