4 Best NBA Playoffs Bets and Player Props for Sunday 5/11/25

The NBA postseason is here, and it offers us a wide variety of betting options, from point spreads and totals to player props.

There's a lot to choose from, but various advanced statistics can help narrow the choices. Our NBA projections paired with advanced stats from the NBA can help give the inside track to quality bets.

While utilizing some of the mentioned tools, which NBA odds from FanDuel Sportsbook look like the best bets today?

Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All injury news comes from the NBA's official injury report.

NBA Betting Picks for Today's Playoff Games

Oklahoma City Thunder at Denver Nuggets

Thunder -6 (-112)

As someone largely proven correct this postseason, the Denver Nuggets aren't who you think they are.

Most see Denver as a plausible title contender as the credentialed Nikola Jokic leads a team that just keeps "finding a way" in clutch situations. The reality? They've been extremely fortunate to even have a chance because of the Oklahoma City Thunder's head coach and players regularly showing their inexperience.

Friday's game was an impossibly bad shooting effort from OKC -- one of the NBA's best shooting teams. The Thunder posted the seventh-best eFG% (56.0%) during the regular season, but they were held to 9-for-35 shooting (25.7%) from downtown in Game 3. Woof.

If the Thunder made one more triple, that game doesn't sniff overtime because Jokic is in jail, averaging 7.0 turnovers per game in three contests. I don't know how much longer Aaron Gordon and Russell Westbrook can bail him out. He said it himself.

Shockingly to some, OKC is still instilled as a -235 favorite to win this series, and it's not a gift from FanDuel. I'll back the Thunder to score their second blowout win of the series.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 1.5 Made Threes (-158)

We've got to target a threes prop after that showing from deep, right?

Let's start at the tippy top with MVP-to-be Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. After a really dismal effort Friday, I expect SGA to respond after totaling just his second game below 18 points of these playoffs.

Moreover, the point guard is underperforming from three in the playoffs overall. After shooting 37.5% from three during the regular season, Gilgeous-Alexander is a frigid 11-for-42 (26.1%) from deep in the postseason. With a couple of days to adjust to shooting at elevation, I like his chances.

Plus, Denver can hand them out, allowing the ninth-most made threes to opposing point guards during the regular season (3.3).

FanDuel Research's NBA player prop projections expect 2.0 made threes from SGA on Sunday. Crunch some math, and we'd have expect closer to -XXX odds on this line.

Cleveland Cavaliers at Indiana Pacers

Pacers Over 113.5 Points (-106)

As someone picking the Cleveland Cavaliers to even the series, it'll be more difficult than it was Friday.

The Indiana Pacers didn't just go cold from the floor in Game 3. They were horrible, shooting just 9-for-30 (30.0%) from three. They shot just 38.9% on shots deemed to be "wide open", so as much as I respect the DPOY, Evan Mobley, he alone didn't cause an off night for the 'Cers.

If you're wondering where a lack of urgency, up 2-0 in the series, crept into the Pacers' outlook, I'd also check the offensive glass. Indiana got gashed for 18 offensive boards.

In large part due to this series' exceptional 101.5 average pace, the Pacers still score scored 104 points despite all these problems. Tyrese Haliburton took just eight shots. Pascal Siakam might have been left on a flight back from Milwaukee at this stage. There's room for this team to grow offensively.

Massey Ratings has the Pacers projected for 117.0 median points in what should be another up-and-down Game 4.

Darius Garland 20.5 Points and Assists (-112)

My favorite prop of the day is behind Darius Garland here.

Physically, the point guard seemed fine returning from a toe injury. Only 25 minutes on the floor could suggest a minutes limit, but it was really just three fouls in the first quarter that reduced his playing time. Even worse, Garland failed to make the most of these minutes with a 3-for-11 (27.2%) shooting effort.

Still, Garland could still be a catalyst for an epic Cavs comeback opposite a Pacers squad that allowed the 11th-most points per game to opposing floor generals (24.7) during the regular season.

From a big-picture perspective, he'll have a full role and has averaged 24.1 points and 7.9 assists per 36 minutes across all action in 2024-25. The point guard's workload forecast seems normal, and this game's 231.5-point total doesn't suggest a "rock fight" type of game.

I'm missing something, right? FanDuel Research's projections disagree. They expect 17.8 points and 6.7 assists in 32.0 minutes from Garland on Sunday.

You can also check out our latest 2025 NBA Playoffs printable bracket, which includes the seeding and matchups for each conference.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.