4 Best MLB Bets, Player Props, and Home Run Picks for Sunday 5/11/25

In a given MLB slate, you've got tons of markets to dig through, from totals to home runs and strikeout props.

Which bets stand out for today's games?

Below, I'm going to run through my favorite bets in FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB betting odds. You can get additional insights from our daily MLB player prop projections.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Today's Best MLB Bets, Player Props, and Home Run Picks

Milwaukee Brewers at Tampa Bay Rays

Rays -0.5 in First 5 Innings (-115)

I got bit with a Chad Patrick masterclass on Tuesday. I just can't see the converted reliever dodging danger twice in a row.

Patrick's 3.08 ERA is a fib, per his 4.34 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA). He's generated a low swinging-strike rate (8.2%) with elevated flyball (48.6%) and hard-hit (45.9%) rates allowed. Loud outs can't be the gameplan -- especially at a park that's trended toward offense in its brief time as the Tampa Bay Rays' home.

Plus, Tampa Bay's starter, Drew Rasmussen, is as solid as they come. Rasmussen's 3.59 SIERA would mark a fourth straight campaign under 3.75, and he's allowed just 1.03 HR/9.

The Rays (.715 team OPS) have slightly outperformed the Milwaukee Brewers (.693) in these matching right-handed splits, so I'll take the home side to pull ahead after five while dodging both of these clubs' sketchy bullpens.

Boston Red Sox at Kansas City Royals

Over 8.5 Runs (-115)

By name value, both of today's starters are probably overrated in this matchup.

The Boston Red Sox will send Lucas Giolito to the bump. Even as Boston has made the most of other acquisitions, Giolito's rocking an 8.38 ERA through two shortened appearances -- even if his peripheral mark (4.05 SIERA) is closer to average. He's allowed 1.86 HR/9 behind a giant barrel rate (12.1%), and I don't trust him with velocity still well behind his peak.

However, Seth Lugo is even closer to that "overrated" label because the former All-Star's 2.84 ERA is solid. The Kansas City Royals' right-hander is on borrowed time as their home park heats up, though, if a 4.36 SIERA, 39.3% flyball rate, and 46.9% hard-hit rate are any indication.

Kansas City has had moments of offensive ineptitude, but the softer matchup will help. I like a back-and-forth affair on a warm day at Kauffman.

Jaren Duran to Record 2+ Total Bases (-130)

Hitters that profile to do well against Lugo make regular contact, have great speed, and don't walk. Check, check, and check with Jarren Duran.

Even at -130, this bases prop is worth a look because of those factors. The right-handed pitcher's 82.3% contact rate is gigantic, and Duran has only walked 6.3% of the time against righties across 134 plate appearances (PAs) to this stage.

With plus speed, the outfielder has posted a .262 AVG, .418 SLG, .156 ISO, and 83.0% medium-to-hard contact rate against opposite-handed hurlers this season.

Cashing this in just two of nine May contests, I think this is a still a buy-low spot considering the matchup. FanDuel Research's MLB player prop projections expect 1.91 median total bases from Duran on Sunday.

Philadelphia Phillies at Cleveland Guardians

Kyle Schwarber to Hit a Home Run (+300)

Kicking off Sunday Night Baseball with a leadoff Kyle Schwarber dong would be sweet.

Whether it comes out of the gates or not, Schwarber is a live wire for a home run against any right-hander in the sport at present. He's totaled a .837 OPS, .217 ISO, 43.7% flyball rate, and 38.0% hard-hit rate across 113 PAs in the split.

Likely to feel some pressure in a high-profile spot facing Zack Wheeler, Cleveland Guardians starter Luis Ortiz has given up his fair share of bombs to this point. He's coughed up 1.21 HR/9 with hefty flyball (39.6%), hard-hit (46.2%), and barrel (12.3%) rates allowed.

We've got Schwarber projected for 0.30 median home runs on Sunday, implying closer to +286 odds for one if correct.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.