Is Ashton Jeanty Worth a First-Round Pick in 2025 Fantasy Football Drafts?

If you're reading fantasy football content in July, you're probably as entrenched in this exhilarating cultural phenomenon like I am.

Do you agree that, as the years pass of doing this, that the first round is actually sort of the hardest one to get right?

Think about it this way. Fantasy first rounds include players who, for the most part, were top-12 players at their position last year -- either overall or on a per-game basis. Asking them to avoid the rigors of an NFL season and do it again can be tricky.

That's why I tend to overvalue the shiny new toy in the top 12, and there's an obvious one this year. Ashton Jeanty went sixth overall in the 2025 NFL Draft to the Las Vegas Raiders, and the Heisman runner-up in college football last year is expected to be a top fantasy scorer right out of the gate.

Without having seen a snap of action, projecting Jeanty is a bit difficult. It's all educated speculation.

With a current ADP of 10.0, Jeanty goes in the first round of most drafts. Is that too high, or should we be even higher? What are realistic expectations for him?

Note: A player's ADP data comes from FantasyPros' half-PPR data. The basis for rounds used in this piece is from 12-player leagues.

Ashton Jeanty's Rookie Profile

While some might be uncomfortable with the notion of taking a rookie so early, the chances that Jeanty ends up like Trent Richardson are pretty darn low.

With a better modern understanding of how yards are earned by running backs versus offensive lineman than in Richardson's day, Jeanty's college profile is just absurd. According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), Jeanty led all of FBS last year in offensive rush grade (94.9), yards after contact per attempt (5.3), and elusiveness rating (216.5).

A hallmark of durability, he also missed only 2 of a possible 42 games in his three years with the Boise State Broncos.

With the pleasure of authoring our college profile for him before the draft, I didn't hand out a Ladainian Tomlinson comparison lightly. His short-area quickness and contact balance look like a cheat code in a video game. From Day 1, he is one of the best pure rushers in the NFL and is paid like one. Jeanty's draft slot made him the second-highest paid RB in the league already.

Now, if there is a concern in his profile, it's on third down.

Jeanty's 33 targets were just tied for 35th in FBS last season, and he was 126th in yards per route run (0.54 YPRR) among those with at least 100 carries. His 54.7 receiving grade at PFF also ranked just 115th among these backs. It was a surprisingly poor result for a Boise offense built around him and lacking elite quarterback play. I highlighted issues in pass protection issues in my profile, too.

Normally, I'd say this caps a three-down role for a rookie running back who didn't do well here in college. However, the Raiders' choice to make him such a lofty draft pick and other existing options on the team still imply that Jeanty is the leader in the clubhouse for passing-down work. How will it go?

Ashton Jeanty 2025 Fantasy Football Outlook

There's absolutely a path where Ashton Jeanty doesn't return first-round value.

Though optimism in Las Vegas is rampant, it's not exactly like we've seen Pete Carroll, new offensive coordinator Chip Kelly, and Geno Smith be "locks" to be part of productive, efficient NFL offenses.

NFL's Next Gen Stats shows Smith averaged -0.02 expected points added per drop back (EPA/db) last season on the back of 15 interceptions, and he was fortunate to recover all 6 fumbles.

The weaponry isn't amazing here, either. Brock Bowers is one of the best tight ends in football, but Jakobi Meyers and fourth-round rookie Dont'e Thornton Jr. are an underwhelming starting duo as second-rounder Jack Bech has been working with reserves in minicamp.

If PFF's 18th-ranked offensive line is on the wrong side of league average, things could spiral quickly.

However, the most appealing part of Jeanty's team-level profile is his competition. A dusty version of Raheem Mostert nor Zamir White nor Sincere McCormick are legitimate threats to pull carries off Jeanty outside of a breather. White's ceiling from 2023 is interesting to bounce back and win the RB2 job, but he's not plucking carries away from a top-10 pick.

At a higher level, "some" improvement from last season's 29th-ranked schedule-adjusted offense and 32nd-ranked rushing offense won't be enough to make Jeanty a top-five running back in fantasy football. It'll almost certainly be better with Geno, Kelly, and Jeanty in the room, but it does seem the latter needs to be a good chunk of the reason for optimism.

The good news? We covered in his rookie profile why he definitely can be.

Where Should Jeanty Go in Fantasy Drafts?

Luckily, history has somewhat set a precedent for us with recent top-10 running backs. They've all been awesome in fantasy football:

A floor of total fantasy points has been established as an RB1 for the last five rookie running backs selected in the top 10. The worst year was an RB11 campaign from Christian McCaffrey.

I think that's a valuable lens to look at them through because, coming into the NFL, there is so much tread on the proverbial tires to avoid injury. That's an underrated aspect of a rookie running back like Jeanty compared to this year's versions of Saquon Barkley or Derrick Henry coming off a minimum of 344 NFL touches in 2024.

My skepticism of the Raiders' improvements should be quelled by the fact that Bijan Robinson battled both Desmond Ridder and Arthur Smith to still post a top-10 season in total fantasy points at running back. It's hard to forecast a worse situation with Smith, Bowers, and Meyers being decent last year -- and now having Kelly at the controls.

Frankly, none of these previous rookie tailbacks went to an offense that had year-to-year projected improvement as great as Las Vegas' is. The closest comparison is likely the 2016 Dallas Cowboys after finding Dak Prescott. Most of these situations were bad offenses in the prior year, and the tailback made the difference. Obviously, they didn't add a franchise quarterback with a first-round pick spent on them.

With that the case, Jeanty is my favorite first-round pick in a bizarre year for the projected top 12. Guys like CeeDee Lamb and Puka Nacua have added a legitimate threat for targets compared to last season. Whether it be a playcaller or quarterback, Justin Jefferson, Jahmyr Gibbs, and Amon-Ra St. Brown's offenses lost key pieces of some sort in the offseason. Barkley and Henry are aging off a ton of work last year.

Most of these guys will still be good, but are they going to win leagues?

Beyond Ja'Marr Chase, I see no great bets. You get to the fourth or fifth pick and are looking squarely at Jeanty. History tells us rookies like Jeanty are likely to be RB1s, and if you can get out of the first round finding an RB1 with top-five upside, that should be a much, much better result than many of your leaguemates get.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.