SportsgGambler explicitly back Taremi as their first goalscorer pick: "Favourite Mehdi Taremi is available at +380 to be the First Goalscorer. Similar odds apply if you're interested in him to score the last goal." Oddschecker give him the highest anytime probability in the match at 35.19% — and he tops ESPN's entire first goalscorer board at +500.

SI.com make the most detailed structural case: "Taremi is arguably Iran's best goalscorer entering the World Cup, and he has a favorable matchup with Iran favored to beat New Zealand. Taremi had 10 goals in 24 matches for Olympiacos and scored twice in 10 Champions League matches. New Zealand has allowed 18 goals in its last 10 international matches while posting 1.75 expected goals against per game — so Iran should be in the mix to score two times, which makes Taremi a pretty decent value at near 2/1 odds." With Azmoun absent through discipline, Taremi leads Iran's attack without competition. In a projected 2-0 Iran win, the undisputed #1 striker scoring first is the clearest structural bet on the card.

CBS Sports' Martin Green, currently 12-5-2 on World Cup picks this tournament, explicitly names Mohebi alongside Taremi, Ghayedi, Hosseinzadeh and Eckert as Iran's "dangerous forwards" who "should leave them with enough firepower to beat this limited New Zealand team." He is confirmed as a starter in Iran's right attacking midfield slot in the 4-2-3-1 — cutting inside to create shooting opportunities or arriving into the box when Taremi drags defenders. Racing Post's predicted lineup confirms him starting. At +700 first scorer (+295 anytime) for a confirmed Iran starting attacker backed by CBS Sports' top expert, this is the best-value Iran pick beyond Taremi on the first scorer market.

Wood is the only New Zealand player capable of delivering a first goal against Iran. Squawka identify him as the key man: "In Chris Wood they have a Premier League striker capable of changing any game in a single moment." Racing Post confirm he is fit after the knee scare that threatened his tournament participation — calling it "a huge boost."

SportsgGambler's bet builder includes "Jesse Randall (New Zealand) to record a minimum of one shot on target" alongside Iran picks — confirming they expect New Zealand to create at least some attacking moments even in defeat. Covers note that New Zealand's low block "frustrated England at times last weekend" — and if they can absorb Iran pressure and nick a counter-attack, Wood's movement and aerial ability gives them a genuine first-goal route. At +650 for New Zealand's sole world-class attacker in a match most experts project ending 1-0 or 2-0 to Iran, this is the best-value pure longshot on the card — the single play that wins big if New Zealand manage to score first off a set piece or counter.

SportsgGambler top first scorer pick. Oddschecker 35.19% probability — #1 in match. SI.com explicit recommendation. ESPN board #1. Azmoun disciplinary absence = undisputed Iran #1. 2G+1A at 2022 WC. NZ allowed 18 goals in last 10. If you want value: Mohebbi +700 first (same structural argument from the RW slot).