SportsgGambler are explicit: "Mehdi Taremi (Iran) is available at +170 to be among the goals. The odds that he will be an Anytime Goalscorer look attractive based on the evidence and we'll plump for him to find the net." Oddschecker give him the highest anytime probability of any player in the match at 35.19%. SI.com make the case structurally: "Taremi is arguably Iran's best goalscorer entering the World Cup, and he has a favorable matchup with Iran favored to beat New Zealand. Taremi had 10 goals in 24 matches for Olympiacos, and he scored twice in 10 Champions League matches."

The Azmoun disciplinary absence removes Iran's only alternative central striker option — Taremi is now the undisputed #1. CBS Sports' Martin Green, currently 12-5-2 on World Cup picks, backs Iran to win citing their dangerous forward line with Taremi at its apex. SI.com note that New Zealand "allowed 18 goals in its last 10 international matches while posting 1.75 expected goals against per game — so Iran should be in the mix to score two times, which makes Taremi a pretty decent value at near 2/1 odds." At +200 for the match's top-rated player by anytime probability against the tournament's worst-ranked defence, Taremi is the clearest goalscorer pick on the entire Monday slate.

Wood is New Zealand's first, last and only realistic goalscoring option — and Squawka note exactly why he matters despite the mismatch: "In Chris Wood they have a Premier League striker capable of changing any game in a single moment." Racing Post confirm his recovery: "Chris Wood's recovery from a knee injury is a huge boost." He has 45 goals in 88 New Zealand caps — the all-time national record by some distance.

Covers note that New Zealand's plan is to sit deep in a "steady low block" — meaning Wood will receive minimal service, but the service he does receive will arrive precisely when New Zealand see their best chance. Iran's defence is organized but not impenetrable, and a single set piece, long ball or counter-attack reaching Wood gives him a direct scoring opportunity against an Iran side who have conceded in recent fixtures. At +260 for New Zealand's only credible scorer and the tournament's most experienced big-game international striker on the All Whites' roster, this is the best New Zealand value on the board by a wide margin.

Oddschecker give Alipour a 27.5% anytime probability — the second highest in the entire match, behind only Taremi's 35.19%. CBS Sports' Martin Green explicitly names Alipour in his list of "dangerous forwards" for Iran alongside Taremi, Ghayedi, Mohebi and Eckert. He sits fourth on ESPN's goalscorer board at +750 first / +300 anytime. Whether starting or coming on as Iran's primary striker substitute, Alipour in 30+ minutes against New Zealand's leaking defence carries genuine scoring probability. At +300 anytime for a player Oddschecker rates as the second-most likely scorer in the match, this is the best Iranian value pick beyond Taremi himself — and the best pure-value dark horse on the card.

SportsgGambler top pick. Oddschecker 35.19% probability — highest of any player. SI.com explicit recommendation at ~+200. Azmoun out (disciplinary) = Taremi undisputed #1. 2G+1A at 2022 WC. NZ allowed 18 goals in last 10. Iran beat Costa Rica 5-0. This is Taremi's tournament to start.