How Will Brock Bowers Fare in Fantasy Football as a Rookie?

In the 2024 NFL Draft, Brock Bowers went 13th overall, becoming the highest-selected tight end since Kyle Pitts was the No. 4 pick in 2021.

Pitts has been a constant nightmare for fantasy managers, failing to produce thanks to questionable use and meh quarterback play on the Atlanta Falcons. Will Bowers take a similar path?

Throughout the draft process, Bowers was consistently labeled a generational talent and directly compared to Pitts, who was the highest drafted tight end of all time while being labeled perhaps the best talent yet at the TE position.

Any comparison to Pitts isn't something most fantasy managers want to hear, although Pitts could finally deliver in 2024. Hold your horses -- Bowers is not doomed for failure just because Pitts struggled early in his career.

Let's look at Bowers' fantasy football outlook for the upcoming season, utilizing FantasyPros' half-PPR average draft position (ADP) data and numberFire's fantasy football projections. Will the Las Vegas Raiders tap into the tight end's supreme talent?

Brock Bowers Fantasy Football Outlook

Las Vegas Will Likely Lean Into 12 Personnel

Before getting into Bowers' potential usage, let's look at the fit. While nothing but positive reviews have mostly surrounded the Georgia product, there were some mixed feeling regarding the Raiders' selection.

Las Vegas took Michael Mayer in the second round of the 2023 NFL Draft. While he didn't make much noise during his rookie season with 304 receiving yards and a 9.1% target share, Mayer was a quality prospect himself and is still expected to be a contributor in 2024.

With the Raiders listed as the 10th-worst team in numberFire's NFL power rankings, holes are littered across Vegas' roster. The team opting to take another early-round TE was head-scratching, especially with the Raiders' win total set at 6.5, per FanDuel Sportsbook's NFL win totals.

Putting the criticism aside, the pairing of Bowers and Mayer likely means one thing -- lots of 12 personnel (one running back; two tight ends). Across the league in the 2023 season, 12 personnel was used on 19.3% of snaps -- the second-most since the NFL began tracking the number in 2016. Las Vegas used the formation on only 14.4% of plays, though (ninth-fewest).

The Raiders did, however, make a change at offensive coordinator, hiring Luke Getsy. With the Chicago Bears, Getsy used 12 personnel on 23.5% of snaps (eighth-highest). This was with Cole Kmet and Robert Tonyan; Bowers and Mayer are much more intriguing and talented duo. Getsy probably won't be afraid to lean into 12 personnel.

This formation is becoming increasingly popular around the league, as the league-wide rate from last season suggests. Think about it -- what team has two bodies big enough and athletic enough to hold their own against two quality tight ends?

The idea of pairing Bowers with Mayer makes sense, but what does it mean for Bowers fantasy football value? The thought of Bowers splitting targets with another tight end doesn't sound promising.

Will Bowers Be the Second-Most Targeted Raider?

Fortunately for Bowers, Mayer wasn't a massive receiving threat last year (9.1% target share). The Raiders were in the top half in pass-play percentage and Mayer logged a snap share north of 70%, meaning Mayer had plenty of chances to garner targets and didn't do so.

This team will likely throw the ball often in 2024, and Bowers looks poised for more targets than Mayer in 12 personnel.

Las Vegas features a new-look coaching staff and just spent a first-round pick on Bowers. Common sense tells us that Bowers will get every chance to be the go-to tight end. Plus, Bowers is simply the better talent; Mayer was nowhere close to garnering "generational talent" comments as a prospect.

The Raiders sorely need a No. 2 option behind Davante Adams, and Bowers could wind up being that player. The six-time Pro Bowl wideout had a team-high 175 targets in 2023; the player with the next-most targets was Jakobi Meyers with 106. There was a massive fall off following the two receivers as running back Josh Jacobs had the third-most targets at 54.

Bowers' talent alone suggests that he will have a good shot to be the second-most targeted player on the Raiders' roster.

According to PFF, Bowers had the second-most missed tackles forced among collegiate tight ends in 2023 while touting the seventh-highest yards after catch per reception. He also recorded 2.64 yards per route run last year, a number which would have led all NFL tight ends in 2023. Obviously, comparing college numbers to NFL stats isn't apples to apples, but there's a reason Bowers was such a highly touted prospect.

After finishing in the 98th percentile of receiving grade in FBS, Bowers proved his supreme talent. His ability after the catch especially stands out -- something the Raiders sorely need (11th-lowest yards-after-catch mark in 2023).

Bowers seems like the clear choice to receive the second-most targets on the team, but let's check numberFire's projections for proof.

Brock Bowers Fantasy Football Projection

Bowers' ADP is currently TE11 -- one spot ahead of his TE12 projection on numberFire. numberFire expects Bowers to be far above Mayer, projecting Bowers for 107 targets to Mayer's 25.

With that said, wideout Jakobi Meyers is likely the biggest threat to prevent Bowers from finishing second on the team in targets. numberFire has Meyers getting 113 targets.

Failing to be the second-most targeted Raider would be deflating for Bowers' 2024 outlook, but 107 targets still feels like enough work for Bowers to meet his ADP. That's the 11th-most projected targets among all TEs.

One of the biggest concerns for Bowers' fantasy upside is quarterbacks play. The Raiders currently have an open competition between Aidan O'Connell and Gardner Minshew. Neither signal-caller will knock your socks off as O'Connell (QB28) and Minshew (QB21) both failed to crack the top-20 fantasy QBs in 2023.

The underwhelming backfield of Zamir White and Alexander Mattison bodes confidence for the amount of work coming Bowers' way. Las Vegas' rushing attack -- which was fifth-worst in yards per attempt last season -- will likely be far from potent once again, especially running behind an offensive line that PFF ranks 19th.

Throwing the ball will probably stay at the forefront. As mentioned, we saw the Raiders finish in the top half of pass-play percentage in 2023; expect more of the same. Pair that with Bowers gearing up for around 100 targets -- per numberFire -- and we have some value.

The rookie tight end could still fail to become a consistent starter in 12-team fantasy leagues. He's currently tracking to be a low-end starting option. Meyers preventing Bowers from becoming the clear-cut No. 2 option is a big concern, and Vegas opting for consistent 12 personnel still gives me a little hesitation.

Thanks to elite talent, Bowers could easily become one of the best tight ends in fantasy football for years to come, but I don't expect this to begin in 2024.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.