Fantasy Football: Will Kyle Pitts Finally Live Up to the Hype?

Ever since being taken with the No. 4 pick in the 2021 NFL Draft by the Atlanta Falcons, Kyle Pitts has been a polarizing player to talk about in fantasy football. Pitts is an athletic freak at the tight end position, but due to various factors, he's failed to be a consistent fantasy football contributor.

Since the end of last season, the Falcons have replaced Arthur Smith at head coach with Raheem Morris while moving on from Desmond Ridder at quarterback in favor of Kirk Cousins. Additionally, Atlanta has a new offensive coordinator in Zac Robinson, who comes from Sean McVay's staff on the Los Angeles Rams.

The changes the Falcons made this offseason have many wondering how Pitts will perform in a new-look offense. Will the alterations be enough to help Pitts live up to the hype in 2024?

Kyle Pitts Fantasy Football Outlook

Pitts' 2023 Recap

It has been tough for Pitts to replicate his rookie campaign in 2021, when he hauled in 68 of his 110 targets for 1,026 yards and one touchdown. After being limited to 356 yards and two touchdowns on 28 catches across 10 games in 2022, Pitts posted 53 receptions, 667 yards, and three touchdowns a season ago.

Those numbers led Pitts to a TE14 finish in half-PPR formats last season while he averages the 17th-most fantasy points per game (6.5) at the position. Given where Pitts has gone in drafts in recent years, it's been disappointing to see him finish no better than TE13 in fantasy points per game over his first three years in the league.

In an Atlanta offense that averaged the seventh-fewest points per game (18.9) in 2023, Pitts finished second on the team in target share (17.7%) and air yards share (32.5%), per NextGenStats. Pitts also registered a solid average depth of target (aDOT) of 11.4 yards and garnered the second-highest end zone target share (17.4%) despite finishing with only three touchdowns.

Being targeted by Ridder and Taylor Heinicke in a struggling offense certainly lowered Pitts' ceiling with the Falcons. Getting a chance to play with one of the most consistent quarterbacks (Cousins) should benefit Pitts entering the upcoming season.

Major Upgrade at Quarterback

One of the most notable moves of the offseason was Cousins and the Minnesota Vikings electing to go their separate ways, allowing the veteran signal-caller to join the Falcons on a four-year, $180 million contract. While Cousins is coming off a torn Achilles he suffered in Week 8 of last season, he's expected to be ready for Week 1 of the 2024 campaign.

Cousins should be viewed as a major upgrade over the other quarterbacks Pitts has caught passes from in his career. Before being sidelined for the final nine games of last season, Cousins had a +4.6% completion percentage over expected with 18 touchdowns to 5 interceptions.

In each of his past four seasons, Cousins has ranked as at least the QB13 in fantasy points per game, and he's proven he can support multiple pass catchers in fantasy football.

Over a Year Removed From Knee Injury

Along with becoming a focal point in a Cousins-led aerial attack, Pitts is healthier entering the upcoming season than he was at this time last year.

The reason why Pitts missed the final six games of the 2022-23 season was because he sustained a torn MCL. Even though he was active in all 17 games, Pitts shared that he was still hampered by his knee injury a season ago.

Fast forward to now, and Pitts is well over a year removed from undergoing knee surgery. When looking at Pitts' route charts from last season via NextGenStats, it's telling that he was seemingly asked to run fewer routes that forced him to push off his right knee -- the knee that was injured.

The talented tight end is fully healthy entering the 2024-25 campaign, and Morris has made it known the Falcons are going to do everything they can to get the best out of Pitts. An environment boost and a healthy offseason could work wonders for Pitts.

Kyle Pitts Fantasy Football Projection

When looking at FanDuel's best-ball average draft position (ADP), Pitts is sitting with a 75.9 ADP, and he is the eighth tight end off the board. Ahead of a decisive year for Pitts, numberFire's fantasy football projections believe a fantastic year is in store for the former first-round pick.

numberFire's model is predicting Pitts to conclude the upcoming season -- assuming 17 games being played -- with 81 receptions, 1,009 receiving yards, and 6.6 receiving touchdowns on 128 targets. Among tight ends who have listed props on FanDuel Sportsbook, Pitts has the fifth-highest over/under receiving yards prop (775.5) at the position.

Tight end is a position that is unpredictable in fantasy football, and it can take years for a player to evolve into a consistent performer. Taking into account everything that has transpired this offseason, the 2024-25 campaign is shaping up to be Pitts' best in his four-year career.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.