Home Run Props Today: Mookie, Aranda and a +680 Dinger Pick

Today's Top Home Run Picks at a Glance

• Jonathan Aranda (+480)
• Lazaro Montes (+680)
• Mookie Betts (+470)

Across all of sports, few things are more exciting than the long ball.

That translates to the prop market, too, where each crack of the bat can get our heart pumping.

Using our MLB projections as a guide, which home run props stand out for today's MLB action? Also, you can check out our MLB player news page to stay up to date with lineup news and injuries.

MLB odds via FanDuel Sportsbook and may change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Home Run Picks, Props and Predictions Today

Home Run Prediction: Jonathan Aranda (+480)

Rays at Rangers, 8:05 p.m. ET

Cal Quantrill will be on the mound for the Texas Rangers, and while Quantrill is getting good results (3.01 ERA), the underlying numbers aren’t nearly as strong.

The right-handed Quantrill owns a 4.43 xFIP and 18.5% strikeout rate while allowing a 42.8% fly-ball rate. Against left-handed hitters, Quantrill’s fly-ball rate rises to 44.2%.

Jonathan Aranda has a career-best 17 long-balls with a 40.8% hard-hit rate this season. With the platoon advantage, he’s got a .365 wOBA, 41.7% hard-hit rate and 41.0% fly-ball rate. Of his 17 dingers, 15 have come against RHPs.

Once Quantrill leaves the game, Aranda will see a Texas bullpen that has let up the fourth-most jacks per nine over the last 30 days (1.45).

Home Run Prediction: Lazaro Montes (+680)

A’s at Mariners, 9:40 p.m. ET

This is a huge number for a guy with elite power.

Lazaro Montes just got to The Show and has only five MLB plate appearances to his name. But his minor-league power output has been remarkable, with Montes popping 38 home runs across two levels this season. In 2025, he launched 32 tanks over two levels.

He hit a bomb in his MLB debut earlier this week, and while Montes is a pinch-hit risk if he faces a southpaw, I like his matchup with RHP Jack Perkins, who is the A’s probable starter.

Perkins has swing-and-miss stuff (12.4% swinging-strike rate), but he’s also got a gopher-ball problem, allowing 1.70 homers per nine and a 45.9% fly-ball rate. Lefty bats have recorded 1.82 home runs per nine against him, and he’ll be followed by an Athletics bullpen that has the fourth-worst xFIP since the break (4.64).

Home Run Prediction: Mookie Betts (+470)

Cardinals at Dodgers, 10:10 p.m. ET

It’s been a down year for Mookie Betts, with the grind of playing shortstop every day possibly taking away from his offensive numbers. He’s picking it up lately, though, and I like his date with LHP Quinn Mathews.

Over his last 57 plate appearances, Betts has mashed his way to a .417 wOBA. He’s generated a 49.1% fly-ball rate against lefties this year.

Mathews has permitted 11 earned runs through his first 19.2 MLB innings. He’s facing a tall task today against a loaded Los Angeles Dodgers lineup, and I think Mookie can have success in this matchup.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does +310 mean on an MLB home run prop bet?

A +310 line means a $100 bet returns $310 in profit if the player homers. You can bet any amount — a $10 bet at +310 returns $31 in profit. The number reflects the implied probability the sportsbook assigns to the event (roughly 24% for +310 odds).

What happens to my FanDuel HR prop if the player doesn't start?

FanDuel's policy is that a HR prop bet will not be voided if the player records at least one plate appearance — even as a pinch hitter. If they don't record a plate appearance, the bet is typically voided. Always check FanDuel's official terms before placing your wager.

Can I parlay home run props together on FanDuel?

Yes. FanDuel allows you to parlay multiple HR props as a standard parlay or as part of a Same Game Parlay (SGP) within a single game. All legs must win for the parlay to pay out.

What factors matter most when betting MLB home run props?

Some of the most important factors are: the hitter's recent HR rate and raw power profile, the opposing pitcher's home run rate allowed, ballpark dimensions and park factors, wind direction and game-time temperature, and batter-vs-pitcher handedness splits.

Play the FREE Daily Dingers Game and select a player you think will hit a home run today! If your player hits a DINGER, you’ll get a Profit Boost Token tomorrow to use on ANY MLB Wager! See here for full terms and conditions. Learn about today's other offers at FanDuel Sportsbook Promos.

Which home run props stand out to you today? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB odds to see the full menu of options.

Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook and FanDuel Daily Fantasy today!

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.