Best Home Run Bet for Today: FanDuel Daily Dinger Pick for Thursday, September 3

Daily Dinger Home Run Pick

• Jonathan Aranda (+480)

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For today, who should you pick to hit a home run?

MLB odds via FanDuel Sportsbook and may change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise. This HR pick is taken from today’s home run picks article. Click here to find it as well our other MLB betting content.

Best Home Run Pick Today, Daily Dinger

Home Run Prediction: Jonathan Aranda (+480)

Rays at Rangers, 8:05 p.m. ET

Cal Quantrill will be on the mound for the Texas Rangers, and while Quantrill is getting good results (3.01 ERA), the underlying numbers aren’t nearly as strong.

The right-handed Quantrill owns a 4.43 xFIP and 18.5% strikeout rate while allowing a 42.8% fly-ball rate. Against left-handed hitters, Quantrill’s fly-ball rate rises to 44.2%.

Jonathan Aranda has a career-best 17 long-balls with a 40.8% hard-hit rate this season. With the platoon advantage, he’s got a .365 wOBA, 41.7% hard-hit rate and 41.0% fly-ball rate. Of his 17 dingers, 15 have come against RHPs.

Once Quantrill leaves the game, Aranda will see a Texas bullpen that has let up the fourth-most jacks per nine over the last 30 days (1.45).

Frequently Asked Questions

What does +310 mean on an MLB home run prop bet?

A +310 line means a $100 bet returns $310 in profit if the player homers. You can bet any amount — a $10 bet at +310 returns $31 in profit. The number reflects the implied probability the sportsbook assigns to the event (roughly 24% for +310 odds).

What happens to my FanDuel HR prop if the player doesn't start?

FanDuel's policy is that a HR prop bet will not be voided if the player records at least one at-bat — even as a pinch hitter. If they don't get any at-bat, the bet is typically voided. Always check FanDuel's official terms before placing your wager.

Can I parlay home run props together on FanDuel?

Yes. FanDuel allows you to parlay multiple HR props as a standard parlay or as part of a Same Game Parlay (SGP) within a single game. All legs must win for the parlay to pay out.

What factors matter most when betting MLB home run props?

Some of the most important factors are: the hitter's recent HR rate and raw power profile, the opposing pitcher's home run rate allowed, ballpark dimensions and park factors, wind direction and game-time temperature, and batter-vs-pitcher handedness splits.

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Which home run props stand out to you today? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB odds to see the full menu of options.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.