Home Run Props Today: Best MLB Home Run Predictions, Picks for Wednesday, September 23

Today's Top Home Run Picks at a Glance

• Corbin Carroll (+400)
• Mike Trout (+310)
• Mookie Betts (+450)

Across all of sports, few things are more exciting than the long ball.

That translates to the prop market, too, where each crack of the bat can get our heart pumping.

Using our MLB projections as a guide, which home run props stand out for today's MLB action? Also, you can check out our MLB player news page to stay up to date with lineup news and injuries.

MLB odds via FanDuel Sportsbook and may change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Home Run Picks, Props and Predictions Today

Home Run Prediction: Corbin Carroll (+400)

Diamondbacks at Rockies, 8:41 p.m. ET

Corbin Carroll has a delightful Coors matchup against RHP Mason Adams.

Adams has just 23 big-league innings to his name, and it’s not going well, with the Colorado Rockies‘ hurler showing a 4.57 SIERA and 8.2% swinging-strike rate. Over a small sample, left-handed hitters are tattooing him for a .440 wOBA and 2.53 dingers per nine. He’s also surrendered three long-balls over nine innings at home this season.

Carroll can take advantage. Of Carroll’s 22 homers, 15 have come against RHPs, and he’s got a 42.4% hard-hit rate and 47.2% fly-ball rate in the split this year.

To make this matchup even better, the Rockies’ bullpen has the second-worst second-half expected ERA (4.56).

Home Run Prediction: Mike Trout (+310)

Angels at A’s, 9:41 p.m. ET

I went with Mike Trout in yesterday’s HR article. He didn’t hit one on Tuesday, but I am going back to Trout today.

Trout still had a good game last night, going 3 for 5 with a double and two runs scored. It continues his strong end-of-the-year run as he boasts a .378 expected wOBA over his last 88 plate appearances.

Like last night, Trout is at homer-happy Sutter Health Park on Wednesday. He gets a sublime matchup versus Jeffrey Springs, a lefty who has a 4.91 SIERA. Springs has permitted a .391 wOBA and 2.60 jacks per nine at home this season.

With the platoon advantage in 2026, Trout owns a 40.6% hard-hit rate and 44.6% fly-ball rate. He checks a lot of boxes tonight.

Home Run Prediction: Mookie Betts (+450)

Padres at Dodgers, 10:11 p.m. ET

After a down campaign at the plate, Mookie Betts is starting to look like the Mookie Betts we know, amassing a gaudy .502 wOBA in September. I like his matchup tonight against lefty Robbie Ray.

Ray has taken a big step back in 2026, struggling to a 4.97 SIERA and 20.1% K rate. He’s got a 5.28 xFIP against righty bats, allowing a 49.9% fly-ball rate in the split.

Betts has posted a 47.1% fly-ball rate against southpaws and has gone deep five times over his previous 60 plate appearances.

Given Betts’ recent form and Ray’s struggles, I find Mookie’s HR odds appealing.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does +310 mean on an MLB home run prop bet?

A +310 line means a $100 bet returns $310 in profit if the player homers. You can bet any amount — a $10 bet at +310 returns $31 in profit. The number reflects the implied probability the sportsbook assigns to the event (roughly 24% for +310 odds).

What happens to my FanDuel HR prop if the player doesn't start?

FanDuel's policy is that a HR prop bet will not be voided if the player records at least one plate appearance — even as a pinch hitter. If they don't record a plate appearance, the bet is typically voided. Always check FanDuel's official terms before placing your wager.

Can I parlay home run props together on FanDuel?

Yes. FanDuel allows you to parlay multiple HR props as a standard parlay or as part of a Same Game Parlay (SGP) within a single game. All legs must win for the parlay to pay out.

What factors matter most when betting MLB home run props?

Some of the most important factors are: the hitter's recent HR rate and raw power profile, the opposing pitcher's home run rate allowed, ballpark dimensions and park factors, wind direction and game-time temperature, and batter-vs-pitcher handedness splits.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.