Home Run Props Today: Best MLB Home Run Predictions, Picks for Tuesday, October 6

Today's Top Home Run Picks at a Glance

• Ronald Acuna Jr. (+540)
• Jake Bauers (+470)

Across all of sports, few things are more exciting than the long ball.

That translates to the prop market, too, where each crack of the bat can get our heart pumping.

Using our MLB projections as a guide, which home run props stand out for today's MLB action? Also, you can check out our MLB player news page to stay up to date with lineup news and injuries.

MLB odds via FanDuel Sportsbook and may change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Home Run Picks, Props and Predictions Today

Home Run Prediction: Ronald Acuna Jr. (+540)

Dodgers at Braves, 6 p.m. ET

With Chris Sale and Yoshinobu Yamamoto starting, there aren’t many home run props that catch my eye in today’s Atlanta Braves-Los Angeles Dodgers Game 3. Ronald Acuna Jr. is my preferred option of the bunch.

Yamamoto is excellent in basically every split, but he let up slightly more jacks per nine to right-handed hitters (1.07) than lefties (0.89). The same is true for Yamamoto’s fly-ball and hard-hit rates allowed.

Acuna hit 20 homers this year with a solid batted-ball profile, including a 39.6% hard-hit rate and 39.3% fly-ball rate. He’s really squaring up the ball in the postseason, amassing a 46.7% hard-hit rate through his first 22 plate appearances. Against RHPs this season, Acuna generated a 42.9% hard-hit rate and 40.2% fly-ball rate. He also had a 43.0% fly-ball rate at home, compared to a 35.8% fly-ball rate on the road.

Home Run Prediction: Jake Bauers (+470)

Brewers at Padres, 9:30 p.m. ET

Nick Pivetta has always surrendered a lot of fly balls, and that makes him a good pitcher to pick on tonight.

Pivetta allowed a 52.3% fly-ball rate in limited action this past regular season (34.2 IP), and he’s given up 1.44 homers per nine over his career. Lefty bats pieced together a 36.0% hard-hit rate and 48.0% fly-ball rate against Pivetta in 2026.

Jake Bauers had a breakout year, launching 26 dingers en route to a .381 wOBA. He posted a 41.3% hard-hit rate versus righties, and he had a much higher wOBA on the road (.406) than at home (.354).

I think Pivetta’s fly-ball ways are a good matchup for Bauers, and this is my favorite HR pick for today.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does +310 mean on an MLB home run prop bet?

A +310 line means a $100 bet returns $310 in profit if the player homers. You can bet any amount — a $10 bet at +310 returns $31 in profit. The number reflects the implied probability the sportsbook assigns to the event (roughly 24% for +310 odds).

What happens to my FanDuel HR prop if the player doesn't start?

FanDuel's policy is that a HR prop bet will not be voided if the player records at least one plate appearance — even as a pinch hitter. If they don't record a plate appearance, the bet is typically voided. Always check FanDuel's official terms before placing your wager.

Can I parlay home run props together on FanDuel?

Yes. FanDuel allows you to parlay multiple HR props as a standard parlay or as part of a Same Game Parlay (SGP) within a single game. All legs must win for the parlay to pay out.

What factors matter most when betting MLB home run props?

Some of the most important factors are: the hitter's recent HR rate and raw power profile, the opposing pitcher's home run rate allowed, ballpark dimensions and park factors, wind direction and game-time temperature, and batter-vs-pitcher handedness splits.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.