Home Run Props Today: Best MLB Home Run Predictions, Picks for Thursday, September 17

Today's Top Home Run Picks at a Glance

• Jackson Merrill (+330)
• Yordan Alvarez (+220)
• Riley Greene (+300)

Across all of sports, few things are more exciting than the long ball.

That translates to the prop market, too, where each crack of the bat can get our heart pumping.

Using our MLB projections as a guide, which home run props stand out for today's MLB action? Also, you can check out our MLB player news page to stay up to date with lineup news and injuries.

MLB odds via FanDuel Sportsbook and may change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Home Run Picks, Props and Predictions Today

Home Run Prediction: Jackson Merrill (+330)

Padres at Rockies, 3:11 p.m. ET

Our first stop is Coors Field, where Jackson Merrill and the San Diego Padres take on the Colorado Rockies.

Merrill has supplied plenty of pop this season, entering Thursday with 25 home runs across 148 games. He'll have the platoon advantage against right-hander Tanner Gordon, who has struggled to a 5.55 ERA and 1.48 WHIP across 97 1/3 innings this season.

Gordon has also generated just an 18.9% strikeout rate, so Merrill should have a good chance to put the ball in play. That can be dangerous at Coors Field, particularly for a hitter with Merrill's power.

The conditions shouldn't hurt, either. Temperatures are expected to be around 82 degrees at first pitch in Denver with little threat of rain.

Home Run Prediction: Yordan Alvarez (+220)

Royals at Astros, 7:16 p.m. ET

Yordan Alvarez has been one of baseball's premier power hitters again this season, and I like his chances to do damage against Seth Lugo.

Alvarez enters Thursday with 39 home runs in 147 games while producing a .310 average, .428 on-base percentage, and .594 slugging percentage. That power has helped him post an MLB-best 1.022 OPS entering today's action.

Lugo presents a matchup worth attacking. The right-hander owns a 4.99 ERA and 1.45 WHIP across 164 innings this season, and his 17.8% strikeout rate isn't particularly intimidating. That should give Alvarez a good opportunity to put the ball in play with authority.

There's also some encouraging history in this matchup. Current Astros hitters have produced a .577 expected slugging percentage against Lugo over 108 combined plate appearances.

With Alvarez carrying some of the best power numbers in baseball and getting a matchup with a low-strikeout righty, his home run odds stand out on Thursday's slate.

Home Run Prediction: Riley Greene (+300)

Tigers at White Sox, 7:41 p.m. ET

Riley Greene gets a favorable matchup with Erick Fedde as the Detroit Tigers visit the Chicago White Sox.

Greene has 20 homers in 131 games this season, and his underlying power has remained impressive. Greene owns a .196 ISO while his fly-ball rate sits at 42.7%

Fedde hasn't been very good. He's carrying a 5.12 FIP over 133 2/3 innings, and his 15.9% strikeout rate is among the lowest marks for any starter on Thursday's slate.

Fedde’s lack of swing-and-miss is a big plus for Greene. He's capable of doing significant damage whenever he gets the ball in the air, and Fedde should give him opportunities to make contact.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does +310 mean on an MLB home run prop bet?

A +310 line means a $100 bet returns $310 in profit if the player homers. You can bet any amount — a $10 bet at +310 returns $31 in profit. The number reflects the implied probability the sportsbook assigns to the event (roughly 24% for +310 odds).

What happens to my FanDuel HR prop if the player doesn't start?

FanDuel's policy is that a HR prop bet will not be voided if the player records at least one plate appearance — even as a pinch hitter. If they don't record a plate appearance, the bet is typically voided. Always check FanDuel's official terms before placing your wager.

Can I parlay home run props together on FanDuel?

Yes. FanDuel allows you to parlay multiple HR props as a standard parlay or as part of a Same Game Parlay (SGP) within a single game. All legs must win for the parlay to pay out.

What factors matter most when betting MLB home run props?

Some of the most important factors are: the hitter's recent HR rate and raw power profile, the opposing pitcher's home run rate allowed, ballpark dimensions and park factors, wind direction and game-time temperature, and batter-vs-pitcher handedness splits.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.