Home Run Props Today: Best MLB Home Run Predictions, Picks for Saturday, August 15

Today's Top Home Run Picks at a Glance

• Rafael Devers (+370)
• Elly De La Cruz (+340)
• Corey Seager (+350)

Across all of sports, few things are more exciting than the long ball.

That translates to the prop market, too, where each crack of the bat can get our heart pumping.

Using our MLB projections as a guide, which home run props stand out for today's MLB action? Also, you can check out our MLB player news page to stay up to date with lineup news and injuries.

MLB odds via FanDuel Sportsbook and may change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Home Run Props, Best Bets Today

Home Run Prediction: Rafael Devers (+370)

Rockies at Giants, 4:06 p.m. ET

Michael Lorenzen is the starting pitcher I’m most interested in attacking Saturday.

The Colorado Rockies right-hander enters the matchup with a 6.83 ERA and has struggled to miss bats (14.9% K rate), creating plenty of opportunities for opposing hitters to do damage when they put the ball in play.

That sets up well for Rafael Devers.

Devers has been one of the San Francisco Giants‘ primary power threats and went through an especially strong stretch during the middle of the season. He hit five home runs in May, eight in June and another five in July, giving him 18 homers across those three months.

For the year, Devers owns a .383 wOBA versus RHPs along with a 43.1% fly-ball rate and 42.2% hard-hit rate in the split.

Oracle Park isn’t the easiest venue for home runs, but Lorenzen’s inability to consistently miss bats makes Devers worth targeting anyway.

Home Run Prediction: Elly De La Cruz (+340)

Marlins at Reds, 6:41 p.m. ET

This is one of the best power environments on Saturday’s slate.

Elly De La Cruz and the Cincinnati Reds host the Miami Marlins at Great American Ball Park, with right-hander Ryan Gusto scheduled to start for the Marlins. Gusto enters the game with a 4.78 ERA and 9.0% swinging-strike rate. He’s had an especially hard time with lefty bats, permitting a 42.3% hard-hit rate in the split while striking out only 16.7% in the split.

De La Cruz will hit left-handed against the righty, and this has been Elly’s best split in his career.

The venue pushes this matchup over the top. Great American Ball Park consistently rewards elevated contact, and De La Cruz has more than enough raw power to take advantage of a mistake from Gusto. At home this season, Elly has posted a .406 wOBA, compared to a .316 wOBA on the road.

Home Run Prediction: Corey Seager (+350)

Rangers at Athletics, 9:41 p.m. ET

Corey Seager is another left-handed power bat worth targeting Saturday when the Texas Rangers face Athletics right-hander J.T. Ginn.

Seager has consistently done his best damage against right-handed pitching, and his combination of power and contact quality makes him a strong candidate whenever he owns the platoon advantage. He has also already taken Ginn deep in his career, going 2-for-7 with a home run against him.

Ginn has pitched well overall this season, posting a 3.41 ERA, but he has still surrendered 11 home runs across 98.2 innings — including 1.20 jacks per nine to lefties. He’s also got a 5.00 xFIP at home, compared to a 3.76 clip on the road.

This game will be played at Sutter Health Park, which has played much more favorably for offense than the Athletics’ former home in Oakland.

Seager’s power profile, the right-handed matchup, the stadium and his previous success against Ginn make him one of my favorite home run targets on the slate.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does +310 mean on an MLB home run prop bet?

A +310 line means a $100 bet returns $310 in profit if the player homers. You can bet any amount — a $10 bet at +310 returns $31 in profit. The number reflects the implied probability the sportsbook assigns to the event (roughly 24% for +310 odds).

What happens to my FanDuel HR prop if the player doesn't start?

FanDuel's policy is that a HR prop bet will not be voided if the player records at least one at-bat — even as a pinch hitter. If they don't get any at-bat, the bet is typically voided. Always check FanDuel's official terms before placing your wager.

Can I parlay home run props together on FanDuel?

Yes. FanDuel allows you to parlay multiple HR props as a standard parlay or as part of a Same Game Parlay (SGP) within a single game. All legs must win for the parlay to pay out.

What factors matter most when betting MLB home run props?

Some of the most important factors are: the hitter's recent HR rate and raw power profile, the opposing pitcher's home run rate allowed, ballpark dimensions and park factors, wind direction and game-time temperature, and batter-vs-pitcher handedness splits.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.