Home Run Props Today: Best MLB Home Run Predictions, Picks for Friday, September 25

Today's Top Home Run Picks at a Glance

• Kyle Schwarber (+250)
• Munetaka Murakami (+420)
• Jordan Walker (+360)

Across all of sports, few things are more exciting than the long ball.

That translates to the prop market, too, where each crack of the bat can get our heart pumping.

Using our MLB projections as a guide, which home run props stand out for today's MLB action? Also, you can check out our MLB player news page to stay up to date with lineup news and injuries.

MLB odds via FanDuel Sportsbook and may change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Home Run Picks, Props and Predictions Today

Home Run Prediction: Kyle Schwarber (+250)

Rays at Phillies, 6:41 p.m. ET

Kyle Schwarber enters Friday with 45 homers in 153 games, and he’s got a .401 wOBA at home, compared to a .339 wOBA on the road.

The matchup with Freddy Peralta isn't necessarily one we'd normally go out of our way to target, but there is one aspect that works in Schwarber's favor. Peralta has been more susceptible to left-handed power, giving up 1.45 jacks per nine in the split

That's exactly the kind of weakness Schwarber can exploit. Few hitters possess his combination of extreme fly-ball tendencies and top-end raw power, and Citizens Bank Park gives him a quality setting to turn one well-struck fly ball into a round-tripper.

Home Run Prediction: Munetaka Murakami (+420)

Rockies at White Sox, 7:41 p.m. ET

Munetaka Murakami has gone deep 33 times in 124 games this season, and he’s listed at +420 odds to add another homer tonight. That's an appealing number for someone who has a good matchup as well as elite power.

The matchup puts the left-handed Murakami opposite right-hander Tomoyuki Sugano. While Sugano's full-season work has been uneven, the most important thing for a home run bet is that Murakami has continued to produce elite impact when he gets the ball in the air. His enormous raw power was the centerpiece of his offensive profile before coming to MLB, and that power has translated into 33 homers in his debut season.

There's obviously plenty of swing-and-miss in Murakami's game, making him a volatile hitter on a plate-appearance basis. But volatility isn't necessarily a negative when we're getting +420 on an outcome that requires only one mistake from the opposing pitching staff.

Plus, the swing-and-miss concerns don’t matter as much today with Sugano sporting a lowly 14.4% K rate.

With Murakami getting the platoon advantage against Sugano, he's one of my favorite dinger targets on Friday.

Home Run Prediction: Jordan Walker (+360)

Cardinals at Brewers, 7:41 p.m. ET

This season, Jordan Walker has finally started converting his impressive raw tools into home run production, and tonight's matchup gives him a chance to keep it going.

Walker has 28 home runs across 155 games this season and is +360 to homer against the Milwaukee Brewers.

Milwaukee is scheduled to start left-hander Robert Gasser, giving the right-handed Walker the platoon advantage. Gasser has not missed many bats in his previous meetings with the current Cardinals roster, recording a meager 14.6% strikeout rate over 41 plate appearances.

That's particularly appealing for Walker because the quality of contact can be excellent when he puts the ball in play. His combination of bat speed and raw power has always given him significant home run upside, and his 28 long balls this year show that he's doing a much better job turning those physical tools into production.

Walker has been particularly lethal against LHPs, producing a .382 wOBA in the split.

At these odds, Walker offers a nice combination of power and matchup.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does +310 mean on an MLB home run prop bet?

A +310 line means a $100 bet returns $310 in profit if the player homers. You can bet any amount — a $10 bet at +310 returns $31 in profit. The number reflects the implied probability the sportsbook assigns to the event (roughly 24% for +310 odds).

What happens to my FanDuel HR prop if the player doesn't start?

FanDuel's policy is that a HR prop bet will not be voided if the player records at least one plate appearance — even as a pinch hitter. If they don't record a plate appearance, the bet is typically voided. Always check FanDuel's official terms before placing your wager.

Can I parlay home run props together on FanDuel?

Yes. FanDuel allows you to parlay multiple HR props as a standard parlay or as part of a Same Game Parlay (SGP) within a single game. All legs must win for the parlay to pay out.

What factors matter most when betting MLB home run props?

Some of the most important factors are: the hitter's recent HR rate and raw power profile, the opposing pitcher's home run rate allowed, ballpark dimensions and park factors, wind direction and game-time temperature, and batter-vs-pitcher handedness splits.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.