Home Run Predictions Today: 3 Best MLB Home Run Prop Bets for Wednesday 5/6/26

Today's Top Home Run Picks at a Glance

• Adolis Garcia
• Corey Seager
• Brandon Lowe

Across all of sports, few things are more exciting than the long ball.

That translates to the prop market, too, where each crack of the bat can get our heart pumping.

Using our MLB projections as a guide, which home run props stand out for today's MLB action?

MLB odds via FanDuel Sportsbook and may change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Best Home Run Bets, Props and Picks for Today

Adolis Garcia to Hit a Home Run (+410)

A's at Phillies, 6:41 p.m. ET

Adolis Garcia has a friendly home matchup with southpaw Jeffrey Springs, and that puts him on my HR radar.

Springs is a fly-ball pitcher -- 47.2% fly-ball rate this season -- who posted a meh 19.4% strikeout rate last season. Pitchers who give up a lot of fly balls and don't miss many bats are exactly the type of guys I like to pick on in the dinger market.

Garcia is off to a slow start, producing a .304 wOBA through his first 142 plate appearances with the Philadelphia Phillies. However, his expected wOBA is .325, and his hard-hit rate is an impressive 42.4%. He's being held back in the homer department by a 9.7% homer-to-fly-ball rate, which is well below his career 16.1% mark.

Once Springs leaves the game, Garcia will see an Athletics bullpen that ranks sixth-worst in reliever xFIP.

Corey Seager to Hit a Home Run (+390)

Rangers at Yankees, 7:06 p.m. ET

Corey Seager gets a huge park-factor bump today in the Bronx, and when you combine that with a date versus right-hander Will Warren, Seager becomes a quality home-run bet.

Warren has just a 9.6% swinging-strike rate this season after a 9.5% swinging-strike rate in 2025. Lefties got to him for a .342 wOBA and 19.9% K rate last year, compared to his excellent work against righties (29.2% K rate and .294 wOBA).

Seager has put up six jacks and a .348 expected wOBA this season. Five of his six bombs have come on the road, and he mashed RHPs last year to the tune of a .391 wOBA.

As an added bonus, the wind is blowing out at Yankee Stadium.

Brandon Lowe to Hit a Home Run (+450)

Pirates at Diamondbacks, 9:41 p.m. ET

Brandon Lowe is hammering right-handed pitching this season, and he's in a good spot versus Michael Soroka.

Soroka is posting improved numbers this year after recording a 42.0% fly-ball rate and 9.4% swinging-strike rate in 2025. I'm not sure I buy into his 2026 numbers just yet, and even still, lefties are having a lot of success against him this season, racking up a .389 wOBA and 45.3% hard-hit rate. So, even among some improved clips in this year's small sample, Soroka is still a great matchup for Lowe.

With eight long balls and a .384 wOBA, Lowe's Pittsburgh Pirates tenure is off to a blistering start. He's got a .421 road wOBA so far this campaign, and six of his eight tanks have come with the platoon advantage.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does +210 mean on an MLB home run prop bet?

A +210 line means a $100 bet returns $210 in profit if the player homers. You can bet any amount — a $10 bet at +210 returns $21 in profit. The number reflects the implied probability the sportsbook assigns to the event (roughly 32% for +210 odds).

What happens to my FanDuel HR prop if the player doesn't start?

FanDuel's policy is that a HR prop bet will not be voided if the player records at least one at-bat — even as a pinch hitter. If they don't get any at-bat, the bet is typically voided. Always check FanDuel's official terms before placing your wager.

Can I parlay home run props together on FanDuel?

Yes. FanDuel allows you to parlay multiple HR props as a standard parlay or as part of a Same Game Parlay (SGP) within a single game. All legs must win for the parlay to pay out.

What factors matter most when betting MLB home run props?

Some of the most important factors are: the hitter's recent HR rate and raw power profile, the opposing pitcher's home run rate allowed, ballpark dimensions and park factors, wind direction and game-time temperature, and batter-vs-pitcher handedness splits.

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Which home run props stand out to you today? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB odds to see the full menu of options.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.