Home Run Predictions Today: 3 Best MLB Home Run Prop Bets for Friday 5/1/26

Today's Top Home Run Picks at a Glance

• Elly De La Cruz
• Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
• Chase DeLauter

Across all of sports, few things are more exciting than the long ball.

That translates to the prop market, too, where each crack of the bat can get our heart pumping.

Using our MLB projections as a guide, which home run props stand out for today's MLB action?

MLB odds via FanDuel Sportsbook and may change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Best Home Run Bets, Props and Picks for Today

Brandon Lowe to Hit a Home Run (+470)

Reds at Pirates, 6:46 p.m. ET

Brandon Lowe has a nice home matchup against right-hander Brady Singer, and it puts Lowe on my dinger radar.

Singer is surrendering 1.55 jacks per nine so far this season en route to a 4.66 SIERA. Lefties got to him for a .340 wOBA and 1.44 homers per nine last year. In a small 2026 sample, lefties are mashing him for a .396 wOBA.

Lowe's first campaign with the Pittsburgh Pirates is off to a stellar start. He's slugged his way to a .386 wOBA and eight longballs through 121 plate appearances. Per usual, he's at his best with the platoon advantage, tagging RHPs for a massive .458 wOBA this season in addition to a 40.4% hard-hit rate and 42.1% fly-ball rate in the split.

Once Singer departs, Lowe will take on a Cincinnati Reds bullpen that has the sixth-worst xFIP this season.

On top of all that, the wind is blowing out today in Pittsburgh.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to Hit a Home Run (+440)

Blue Jays at Twins, 8:11 p.m. ET

Simeon Woods Richardson is really struggling this season for the Minnesota Twins, and that makes the Toronto Blue Jays a good place to look for HR props.

Enter Vladimir Guerrero Jr..

Woods Richardson might be on his way out of the Twins' rotation. He's the owner of a 5.81 SIERA and 11.0% K rate. He's allowed 1.80 home runs per nine overall, including 1.72 per nine to righty bats.

Vladdy has only two homers this season, but his underlying stats are very strong. He's generated a .396 expected wOBA but is being held back in the homer department by a 7.4% homer-to-fly-ball rate. His career homer-to-fly-ball rate is 17.5%, so he's due for some bombs. This is a pretty great matchup for him to leave the yard.

Chase DeLauter to Hit a Home Run (+490)

Guardians at Athletics, 9:41 p.m. ET

While Chase DeLauter has slowed after a red-hot start to the season, he's still got great numbers and is in a lovely spot today at homer-happy Sutter Health Park versus J.T. Ginn.

DeLauter has produced a .371 expected wOBA and 46.1% fly-ball rate. After going homer crazy early in the year, he hit only one tank in April, but it's important to remember these are his first-ever regular season at-bats as he debuted in last year's playoffs. The league has seemingly made an adjustment to him, but he's still hitting the ball well.

That fly-ball rate should play today in Sacramento against Ginn, who has given up 1.64 homers per nine since the start of 2025. Ginn did not enjoy the A's temporary home last year, getting lit up for a .385 wOBA and 2.28 dingers per nine in Sacramento.

Ginn will be followed by an A's bullpen that sits 10th-worst in reliever xFIP, putting DeLauter in a good spot all night.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does +210 mean on an MLB home run prop bet?

A +210 line means a $100 bet returns $210 in profit if the player homers. You can bet any amount — a $10 bet at +210 returns $21 in profit. The number reflects the implied probability the sportsbook assigns to the event (roughly 32% for +210 odds).

What happens to my FanDuel HR prop if the player doesn't start?

FanDuel's policy is that a HR prop bet will not be voided if the player records at least one at-bat — even as a pinch hitter. If they don't get any at-bat, the bet is typically voided. Always check FanDuel's official terms before placing your wager.

Can I parlay home run props together on FanDuel?

Yes. FanDuel allows you to parlay multiple HR props as a standard parlay or as part of a Same Game Parlay (SGP) within a single game. All legs must win for the parlay to pay out.

What factors matter most when betting MLB home run props?

Some of the most important factors are: the hitter's recent HR rate and raw power profile, the opposing pitcher's home run rate allowed, ballpark dimensions and park factors, wind direction and game-time temperature, and batter-vs-pitcher handedness splits.

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Which home run props stand out to you today? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB odds to see the full menu of options.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.