Home Run Predictions Today: 3 Best MLB Home Run Picks for Dinger Tuesday (August 11)

Today's Top Home Run Picks at a Glance

• Michael Busch (+390)
• Gunnar Henderson (+340)
• Kyle Tucker (+500)

Across all of sports, few things are more exciting than the long ball.

That translates to the prop market, too, where each crack of the bat can get our heart pumping.

Using our MLB projections as a guide, which home run props stand out for today's MLB action? Also, you can check out our MLB player news page to stay up to date with lineup news and injuries.

MLB odds via FanDuel Sportsbook and may change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Home Run Props Today: MLB Home Run Predictions, Picks

Michael Busch to Hit a Home Run (+370)

Cubs vs. Nationals, 6:46 p.m. ET

I’m into Michael Busch today for his clash with Jake Irvin and the Washington Nationals‘ bullpen.

Irvin is letting up a 40.2% hard-hit rate and 47.6% fly-ball rate to left-handed hitters. He’s permitted three long-balls over his last two starts (10.1 IP).

Once Irvin leaves the game, he’ll turn it over to a Washington bullpen that owns the third-worst xFIP over the last 30 days.

As for Busch, he does his best work against RHPs, with 10 of his 14 homers coming in the split a year after 30 of his 34 jacks were against righties.

Lastly, it doesn’t hurt that the wind is blowing out to right at 6 MPH.

Gunnar Henderson to Hit a Home Run (+330)

Orioles vs. Twins, 7:41 p.m. ET

I missed on Gunnar Henderson in yesterday’s HR article. I’m going back to him today because I love his matchup with Bailey Ober.

Ober is getting rocked by lefties, surrendering a 55.5% fly-ball rate and 1.77 homers per nine in the split along with recording a lowly 12.3% K rate. Yes, please.

Henderson is having a meh season. But just a year ago, he racked up a .373 wOBA and 44.2% hard-hit rate with the platoon advantage. He is hitting the ball extremely well of late, posting a 60.0% hard-hit rate so far in August, and after Ober, Henderson will get to see a Minnesota Twins bullpen that ranks fourth-worst in xFIP this year.

Kyle Tucker to Hit a Home Run (+500)

Royals vs. Dodgers, 10:11 p.m. ET

I’ve written up Kyle Tucker a few times recently, and I’m going back to the well again for tonight. The reason I keep getting drawn to Tucker is pretty simple — I think he’s emerging from his funk and his HR odds are still long on a nightly basis.

In the midst of a disappointing debut season with the Los Angeles Dodgers, Tucker is showing signs of life lately, hitting four home runs and generating a .458 wOBA over his last 58 plate appearances. He’ll have the platoon advantage today against Michael Wacha, and Tucker has registered a 42.5% fly-ball rate against RHPs this campaign.

Wacha is the owner of a 4.42 SIERA and 19.1% K rate. He’s allowed a 46.0% fly-ball rate to lefties, and he’ll be followed by a Kansas City Royals bullpen that has given up the most homers per nine this year (1.51).

Oh, and the wind is blowing out to right at 7 MPH in LA.

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Frequently Asked Questions

What does +310 mean on an MLB home run prop bet?

A +310 line means a $100 bet returns $310 in profit if the player homers. You can bet any amount — a $10 bet at +310 returns $31 in profit. The number reflects the implied probability the sportsbook assigns to the event (roughly 24% for +310 odds).

What happens to my FanDuel HR prop if the player doesn't start?

FanDuel's policy is that a HR prop bet will not be voided if the player records at least one at-bat — even as a pinch hitter. If they don't get any at-bat, the bet is typically voided. Always check FanDuel's official terms before placing your wager.

Can I parlay home run props together on FanDuel?

Yes. FanDuel allows you to parlay multiple HR props as a standard parlay or as part of a Same Game Parlay (SGP) within a single game. All legs must win for the parlay to pay out.

What factors matter most when betting MLB home run props?

Some of the most important factors are: the hitter's recent HR rate and raw power profile, the opposing pitcher's home run rate allowed, ballpark dimensions and park factors, wind direction and game-time temperature, and batter-vs-pitcher handedness splits.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.