St. Jude Predictions: 3 Golf Picks and Best Bets for This Week

St. Jude Picks at a Glance

• Tommy Fleetwood Outright Winner (+2200)
• Matt Fitzpatrick Outright Winner (+2700)
• Russell Henley Top-10 Finish (+130)

The PGA Tour moves to the St. Jude Championship this week for the first stage of the FedEx Cup Playoffs.

Via the golf odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, which betting picks should be on your radar ahead of Thursday's opening round?

All golf odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook and may change after this article is published.

St. Jude Picks, Predictions and Best Bets

Tommy Fleetwood Outright Winner (+2200)

Fleetwood provides perhaps the best combination this week of current form and course history.

His 2026 season has been remarkably consistent. Fleetwood ranks third on the PGA Tour in Strokes Gained: Total at +1.421 strokes per round, trailing only Scottie Scheffler and Matt Fitzpatrick. He's also second on Tour in scrambling at 66.40%, an important skill at a Southwind layout where missed greens can quickly turn into bogeys.

His recent results are equally impressive. Fleetwood finished T14 at the Travelers Championship, T13 at the Scottish Open and T4 at The Open in his three most recent starts.

Then there's the course history. Fleetwood finished T22 here in 2024 before nearly winning last season, when rounds of 63 and 64 helped him finish T3 at 15-under.

Fleetwood is playing some of the most consistent golf on Tour and already demonstrated last year that his game translates extremely well to Southwind. At +2200, he's my favorite outright bet near the top of the board.

Matt Fitzpatrick Outright Winner (+2700)

Fitzpatrick rates out as a strong option this week.

No player on the PGA Tour has been better with his irons this season. Fitzpatrick leads the Tour in Strokes Gained: Approach at +0.846 per round. He's also second in Strokes Gained: Total at +1.642 and third in greens in regulation at 71.55%.

Those aren't numbers generated by a short hot streak, either. Fitzpatrick has already won twice this season, at the Valspar Championship and RBC Heritage, and he followed that with a fourth-place finish at the Travelers Championship and T3 at the Scottish Open.

The concern is that he hasn't yet produced an elite result at Southwind. He finished T18 in 2024 and T32 last year. Still, he's played eight competitive rounds here over those two appearances without shooting worse than 71.

At a golf course that places a premium on controlling approach shots, I'll take my chances on the best iron player on Tour at nearly 30/1.

Russell Henley Top-10 Finish (+130)

Henley is one of my favorite top-10 bets this week because TPC Southwind rewards exactly what he does best: keep the ball in play and avoid costly mistakes.

Henley leads the PGA Tour in driving accuracy this season at 72.81%, an especially useful skill at a Southwind layout where water hazards and wayward drives can quickly derail a round. He also enters the FedEx Playoffs having already produced several high-end finishes in 2026, including a T3 at the Masters, a win at the Charles Schwab Challenge and a T9 at The Open Championship.

There's also plenty of evidence that Henley is comfortable at TPC Southwind. He finished T8 in 2020 and T6 in 2023, giving him two top-eight finishes at the course, and he added a respectable T17 here last season.

Henley doesn't need to overpower a course to contend, which makes Southwind an excellent setup for his accurate, controlled game. Given his combination of current form, consistency and proven course history, I prefer backing him for a top 10 rather than asking him to win a loaded playoff event.

Golf Betting FAQ

What does it mean to bet on a golfer to win outright?

An outright winner bet — sometimes called a "to win" bet — is a wager on a specific golfer to finish first in the tournament. Because golf fields typically range from 70 to 156 players, winning outright is difficult, which is why odds for most players are expressed as large positive numbers (e.g., +1200 or +5000). A $100 wager on a +1200 golfer would return $1,200 in profit if that player wins.

What is a Top 5, Top 10, or Top 20 finish bet?

Finish position bets let you wager on a golfer to finish within a specified range on the final leaderboard, regardless of whether they win. A Top 10 bet pays out if the player finishes anywhere from first through 10th place. Odds are naturally shorter than outright markets to reflect the higher likelihood of success — a player might be +1200 to win but only +200 to finish Top 10.

How does a make/miss the cut bet work?

Most professional golf tournaments feature a 36-hole cut, trimming the field halfway through the tourney; the exact number of golfers who make the cut varies by event. A make/miss the cut bet is a simple two-way wager on whether a specific golfer will survive that cut and play the weekend.

What is a head-to-head matchup bet in golf?

A head-to-head matchup bet pairs two golfers against each other for the full tournament or for a single round, with the bet paying out based on which player finishes higher on the leaderboard.

What is a first-round leader bet?

A first-round leader bet is a wager on which golfer will post the lowest score in the first round (usually on Thursday). First-round leader bets tend to carry large odds given the size of the field and the variance of one-day results.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.