Home Run Props Today: Best MLB Home Run Predictions, Picks for Friday (Aug. 28)

Today's Top Home Run Picks at a Glance

• Michael Harris II (+390)
• Bryan Reynolds (+560)
• Zack Gelof (+390)

Across all of sports, few things are more exciting than the long ball.

That translates to the prop market, too, where each crack of the bat can get our heart pumping.

Using our MLB projections as a guide, which home run props stand out for today's MLB action? Also, you can check out our MLB player news page to stay up to date with lineup news and injuries.

MLB odds via FanDuel Sportsbook and may change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Home Run Picks, Props and Predictions Today

Home Run Prediction: Michael Harris II (+390)

Rockies at Braves, 7:16 p.m. ET

Following a sweep of the Los Angeles Dodgers, the Atlanta Braves are riding high. They should be able to keep the momentum going tonight against Tomoyuki Sugano and the Colorado Rockies.

Sugano is getting torched by lefties, giving up a .388 wOBA and 2.57 homers per nine in the split.

That pushes me toward Michael Harris II. Against RHPs this season, Harris owns a .353 wOBA and 43.6% hard-hit rate. He’s swinging it well right now, too, posting a .400 wOBA across his previous 37 plate appearances.

Lastly, once Sugano is removed from the game, Harris will see a Rockies bullpen that ranks second-worst in reliever xFIP over the last 30 days (4.98).

Home Run Prediction: Bryan Reynolds (+560)

Pirates at Cardinals, 8:16 p.m. ET

Bryan Reynolds is good against lefties, and he’ll take on rookie southpaw Quinn Mathews tonight.

Versus LHPs, Reynolds has slugged his way to a .367 wOBA. He’s slumped since the All-Star break but might be snapping out of it as he’s got a .362 expected wOBA over his last 52 plate appearances.

Mathews has only 14.0 MLB frames to his name but has surrendered a 42.2% fly-ball rate in that small sample. He allowed 1.18 homers per nine in Triple-A before getting called up.

For the cherry on top, the St. Louis Cardinals‘ bullpen has permitted the seventh-most homers per nine across the last 30 days (1.30).

Home Run Prediction: Zack Gelof (+390)

Orioles at Athletics, 9:41 p.m. ET

Zack Gelof loves hitting at Sutter Health Park, and he’s at home today against Brandon Young.

Gelof has hit 14 long-balls this season, 11 of which have come in Sacramento. He’s got a .391 wOBA at home — miles better than his road wOBA of .267 wOBA. He’s also been more productive against RHPs (.343 wOBA) than LHPs (.319 wOBA).

That makes the right-handed Young a great matchup for him because Young is showing some reverse splits, with right-handed hitters tagging him for 1.48 jacks per nine and a .350 wOBA.

Gelof has homered in three of his last nine home games, and he can add to that tally tonight. It doesn’t hurt that the wind is blowing out at 5 MPH.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does +310 mean on an MLB home run prop bet?

A +310 line means a $100 bet returns $310 in profit if the player homers. You can bet any amount — a $10 bet at +310 returns $31 in profit. The number reflects the implied probability the sportsbook assigns to the event (roughly 24% for +310 odds).

What happens to my FanDuel HR prop if the player doesn't start?

FanDuel's policy is that a HR prop bet will not be voided if the player records at least one at-bat — even as a pinch hitter. If they don't get any at-bat, the bet is typically voided. Always check FanDuel's official terms before placing your wager.

Can I parlay home run props together on FanDuel?

Yes. FanDuel allows you to parlay multiple HR props as a standard parlay or as part of a Same Game Parlay (SGP) within a single game. All legs must win for the parlay to pay out.

What factors matter most when betting MLB home run props?

Some of the most important factors are: the hitter's recent HR rate and raw power profile, the opposing pitcher's home run rate allowed, ballpark dimensions and park factors, wind direction and game-time temperature, and batter-vs-pitcher handedness splits.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.