Home Run Picks Today: 3 Best MLB Home Run Predictions, Props for Thursday, August 6, 2026

Today's Top Home Run Picks at a Glance

• Vladimir Guerrero Jr. +440
• Michael Harris II +360
• Fernando Tatis Jr. +450

Across all of sports, few things are more exciting than the long ball.

That translates to the prop market, too, where each crack of the bat can get our heart pumping.

Using our MLB projections as a guide, which home run props stand out for today's MLB action? Also, you can check out our MLB player news page to stay up to date with lineup news and injuries.

MLB odds via FanDuel Sportsbook and may change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Home Run Predictions Today: MLB Home Run Props, Picks

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to Hit a Home Run (+440)

Blue Jays at Cubs, 2:21 p.m. ET

It’s been a rough campaign for Vladimir Guerrero Jr., but he’s my favorite HR pick among the day games.

After posting a .384 expected wOBA last season, Vladdy’s expected wOBA is down to .336, which is still well above his .305 actual wOBA. Amazingly, he’s got just six long-balls. There’s some bad luck at play, though, as his homer-to-fly-ball rate has cratered this year to 5.4% — well off his career clip of 16.5%. He’s also on the road today, and that’s a good thing as all six of his homers have come away from home.

David Peterson, a lefty, is starting for the Chicago Cubs. Vladdy has a solid .349 wOBA with the platoon advantage, and Peterson owns a meh 18.8% K rate this season.

The cherry on top — the wind is blowing out at 6 MPH to left.

Michael Harris II to Hit a Home Run (+360)

Marlins at Braves, 7:16 p.m. ET

There was a stretch early this year where it looked like Janson Junk might be in for a breakout season. It hasn’t happened, and I’m backing Michael Harris II to go yard against Junk and the Miami Marlins.

Junk is the owner of a 4.42 SIERA and 6.5% swinging-strike rate. Lefties are cooking him to the tune of a .371 wOBA, and he’s letting up 1.47 dingers per nine away from home.

It seems like Harris has been around for a long time, but this is still just his age-25 season. He’s having one of the best years of his career, producing a .352 expected wOBA. His next homer will set a new career high (and will be his 21st). He’s posted a .352 wOBA and 43.0% hard-hit rate against RHPs.

The wind is blowing out slightly (3 MPH) to right, and this is a strong matchup for Harris to put one in the seats.

Fernando Tatis Jr. to Hit a Home Run (+450)

Padres at Diamondbacks, 9:41 p.m. ET

I put Fernando Tatis Jr. in yesterday’s HR article, and he came through with a looooong bomb to center. I’m going to press my luck and go back to Tatis today.

Tatis is set to face lefty Kohl Drake, who has only 13 MLB frames to his name. In that tiny sample, Drake has surrendered a 57.5% fly-ball rate, and over a 66.1-inning Triple-A season this year, Drake had a meh 19.3% K rate while letting up 1.49 homers per nine.

Tatis has mashed his way to a .368 wOBA against left-handers, and while his HR output is down this year, he’s clearly still got pop as — after yesterday’s tank — he’s the only player in the bigs with multiple homers of at least 465 feet.

With a .390 wOBA over his past 35 plate appearances, Tatis is in a groove, and I like these odds for him to launch another homer.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does +310 mean on an MLB home run prop bet?

A +310 line means a $100 bet returns $310 in profit if the player homers. You can bet any amount — a $10 bet at +310 returns $31 in profit. The number reflects the implied probability the sportsbook assigns to the event (roughly 24% for +310 odds).

What happens to my FanDuel HR prop if the player doesn't start?

FanDuel's policy is that a HR prop bet will not be voided if the player records at least one at-bat — even as a pinch hitter. If they don't get any at-bat, the bet is typically voided. Always check FanDuel's official terms before placing your wager.

Can I parlay home run props together on FanDuel?

Yes. FanDuel allows you to parlay multiple HR props as a standard parlay or as part of a Same Game Parlay (SGP) within a single game. All legs must win for the parlay to pay out.

What factors matter most when betting MLB home run props?

Some of the most important factors are: the hitter's recent HR rate and raw power profile, the opposing pitcher's home run rate allowed, ballpark dimensions and park factors, wind direction and game-time temperature, and batter-vs-pitcher handedness splits.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.