Golf Best Bets: PGA Tour Valero Texas Open Odds, Predictions and History

Here’s a preview for the 2026 Valero Texas Open, the PGA TOUR’s final stop before the Masters. The tournament is at TPC San Antonio (Oaks Course), a par 72 at 7,438 yards, with a $9.8 million purse and 500 FedExCup points to the winner. Recent winners here include Brian Harman (2025, -9), Akshay Bhatia (2024, -20) and Corey Conners (2022 and 2023, both -15), which is a useful reminder that this event can reward both grinders and elite ball-strikers depending on wind and scoring conditions.

The market is tight at the top. FanDuel lists Tommy Fleetwood at +1600, Ludvig Åberg and Russell Henley at +1500, with Jordan Spieth, Robert MacIntyre, and Collin Morikawa at +2000. The field is stronger than a typical pre-major tune-up, with PGA TOUR and field reports highlighting names like Fleetwood, Morikawa, Åberg, Henley, Hideki Matsuyama, Jordan Spieth, Gary Woodland, and Michael Thorbjornsen.

My approach this week is simple:

1. Favor players arriving with strong March form.
2. Give extra credit to TPC San Antonio history.
3. Downgrade players with a current health question.
4. Prefer players whose profiles fit a harder, more demanding setup rather than a pure birdie-fest.

Here's all you need to know.

All golf odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook and may change after this article is published.

Valero Texas Open: Golf Best Bets, Picks

Best outright pick: Russell Henley (+1600)

Henley is my favorite outright because his current form is the cleanest combination of consistency and upside among the co-favorites. His 2026 results already include T19 at Sony, T8 at The American Express, T19 at Pebble Beach, T6 at Bay Hill, and T13 at THE PLAYERS. That is a very steady run against strong fields, and unlike some of the bigger names here, he is not arriving with a fresh injury question.

Statistically, Henley’s profile has long fit tougher PGA TOUR tests: he tends to contend through precision and control more than volatility, which matters at a course where recent winning scores have ranged from -9 to -15 in three of the last four editions rather than the ultra-low numbers you see at easier venues.

Prediction: Henley is my most likely winner.

Best favorite: Tommy Fleetwood (+1300)

If you want the shortest number I’m most comfortable backing, it’s Fleetwood. FanDuel has him at the top of the board, and his recent results justify it: 4th at Pebble Beach, 7th at Genesis, 49th at Bay Hill, and T8 at THE PLAYERS. Even with the Bay Hill dip, that’s still one of the best recent résumés in the field.

There’s also a broader trend argument. Fleetwood’s 2025 season was a breakout in terms of wins and top-end finishes, and he entered 2026 with the kind of momentum you want from a player still looking to sharpen up before Augusta.

The concern is mostly price. At +1600, you are paying for consistency without a major course-history edge at this event. He did not have a notable result here in 2025, so while I like him, I like Henley slightly more at the same odds band.

Prediction: Fleetwood is more likely to finish top 10 than almost anyone in the field, and he’s a deserved contender.

Best ceiling play: Ludvig Åberg (+1600)

Åberg is the volatility play with genuine win equity. His recent form is excellent: 3rd at Bay Hill and 5th at THE PLAYERS. He also has prior Valero experience, finishing T14 here in 2024.

Why I’m not making him my outright No. 1 is simple: the Sunday collapse at THE PLAYERS is a real signal. He was in position to win and shot 76 in the final round to finish fifth. That does not mean he cannot bounce back immediately, but it does make him a riskier outright than Henley or Fleetwood this week.

Still, if you are betting pure upside, Åberg belongs near the top. He’s trending the right way overall, and his prior TPC San Antonio result suggests the course is at least comfortable for him.

Prediction: Åberg is a strong outright and an even stronger top-10 candidate.

Best course-history value: Jordan Spieth (+2200)

Spieth is the best narrative plus course-history bet in the field. He won this event in 2021, and tournament history still highlights that win as the place where he snapped a long drought by consistently giving himself birdie chances. He also finished T12 here in 2025.

His recent results are better than the market may be crediting. PGA TOUR/CBS/ESPN snippets show 4 top-25 finishes in 7 starts, and he posted T11 at the Valspar with solid week-long stats there: 307.8 yards off the tee, 63.5% driving accuracy, 68.1% GIR, and 16 birdies. That’s not a perfect comp for San Antonio, but it does show his game is functional right now.

At TPC San Antonio, Spieth makes more sense as a top-10 or top-20 than as a full outright. He still has enough volatility that I would not put him above Henley or Fleetwood, but this is exactly the type of venue where his creativity can matter.

Prediction: Spieth is one of my favorite placement bets this week.

Best longshot/top-10 look: Michael Thorbjornsen (+3000)

If you want a longer-ticket angle, Thorbjornsen is the name I’d watch. He just finished T6 in Houston, and his ESPN scorecard there showed real scoring pop: a 64 in Round 2, 323.6-yard average driving distance, and 75% GIR for the event. PGA TOUR also highlighted that he was chasing a last-minute Masters berth and entered Sunday under pressure, which is useful information about current form and motivation.

That does not automatically make him an outright winner, but it does make him a live top-10/top-20 candidate in this field.

Prediction: Thorbjornsen is my favorite deeper placement sleeper.

Final Betting Card

My favorite bets for the 2026 Valero Texas Open are:

• Russell Henley outright
• Tommy Fleetwood top 10
• Jordan Spieth top 20
• Ludvig Åberg top 10
• Michael Thorbjornsen top 20

If you want one single winner pick, it’s Henley. If you want the safer bet, it’s Fleetwood top 10. If you want the course-history angle, it’s Spieth in the placement market.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.