Finding 2023's Fantasy Football League-Winning Running Backs Through Season Simulations

We've learned in the past from Kevin Garnett that anything is possible in the world of sports.

But what's possible and what's probable aren't always the same thing.

And while we definitely want to be optimistic on some fantasy football sleepers, it never hurts to know the probability of certain players hitting certain thresholds by the end of the season.

After all, fantasy football is a volatile game. Your first-round running back might miss half the season, and your star wide receiver may have some unfortunate touchdown luck (which even happened to Justin Jefferson in 2022!).

So what are we to do? When in doubt, simulate it out.

That's what my motto is, at least.

And in case that's not also your motto, I'm going to share my findings after simulating the 2023 NFL season 10,000 times to try and help uncover the most likely "league-winning" players at each position.

I started with the quarterbacks and then moved on to tight ends and wide receivers. Now it's time to finish up with the running backs.

If you're not very interested in the math or history behind this, skip ahead to the "2023 Fantasy League-Winning Running Back Odds" section.

Simulating the NFL Season

Analyzing fantasy football running backs is always fascinating. There is a lot of proof that the early-round running backs are the ones who can really dominate a league, but we also know that there's a pretty heavy risk of injury and missed games.

So there's risk and reward, and often, the risk is worth the reward.

Since 2012, 33.8% of the backs taken in the top six of drafts (based on average draft position [ADP]) returned top-five fantasy seasons, and 55.4% of them were top-12 performers.

Those numbers are 25.8% and 56.1%, respectively, for the backs taken between 7th and 12th among the position.

Just one overall RB1 was drafted outside the top 24 over the past 11 years: Devonta Freeman in 2015 when he was the RB38 in ADP but scored 14 times and topped 1,600 scrimmage yards.

That means that the closest thing we have to a league-winning RB (the RB1) is often drafted within the top 12 among the position.

And top-end performance odds dwindle pretty quickly after the RB12 and then again after the RB24 range.

Let's rely on those historical findings and use numberFire's fantasy football projections to simulate out this season (10,000 times) and see how likely running backs are to hit certain fantasy thresholds.

2023 Fantasy League-Winning Running Back Odds

Here are the results of the 10,000 season simulations and each running back's average draft position in FanDuel's best ball fantasy football formats.

I know that a lot of these are going to look "wrong," but when we look back at history, they largely check out. They do a good job of accounting for historical injury rates, overperformance or underperformance ranges, and anything else that can make or break a fantasy season.

Christian McCaffrey has won plenty of people fantasy football leagues in the past, and the simulations say that he might be on track to do it again. His projection puts him in a tier by himself, and his 14.0% odds to be the RB1 are easily the best of the simulations.

Some projections sources either put Austin Ekeler ahead of McCaffrey or in the same tier as him, so we would see a tighter odds dispersion between the two if numberFire's model didn't like McCaffrey quite as much, yet Ekeler is in a strong position to produce for our squads yet again.

However, similar high-end odds can be found from Tony Pollard, Saquon Barkley, and Nick Chubb, all of whom numberFire's model love. Rushing and target volume is open for all three of these players, and they're some of the most explosive running backs in the NFL.

Rookie Bijan Robinson slots in somewhere between the Pollard-Barkley-Chubb trio but ahead of high-volume veterans Derrick Henry, Jonathan Taylor, and Josh Jacobs (last year's RB1). Robinson is in a run-heavy Atlanta Falcons offense and has early draft capital in his favor.

As is usual with projections and ranges of outcomes, things taper off pretty smoothly from there, and the top-12 odds are below 40% for everyone but the nine aforementioned names plus Najee Harris (40.2%).

Some players with lower best-ball ADPs than the simulations rank them include Miles Sanders (now with the Carolina Panthers) and Rachaad White in a new-look Tampa Bay Buccaneers offense.

This is always a good reminder of how probable certain players are to make a real difference on a weekly basis for our squads -- and how close outcomes are for most of our mid-round decisions.

This is also a good reminder that vying for a Zero RB strategy isn't because we can easily find top-12 running backs late in the drafts or on the waiver wire but rather how many options have reasonable top-24 odds. Top-24 backs paired with league-winning quarterbacks, wide receivers, and tight ends can be the path to a league-winning team, too.

While you wait for Week 1's daily fantasy football slates to lock, you can get in on some best-ball fantasy football drafts on FanDuel, as well. Just draft your team and watch the points pile up throughout the season.

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.