When it comes to fantasy football -- and daily fantasy football or best-ball fantasy football -- touchdowns matter.

A lot.

Outlier games (which are crucial for every type of fantasy football) are tied quite heavily to touchdown variance, and that means we need to target touchdown scorers.

But we also don't want to chase touchdown scorers -- because that can be a bad long-term strategy.

Though that sounds like a bold claim, touchdown regression is a very real thing, and history indicates that we should take advantage.

I'll be looking at wide receivers who overperformed (and underperformed) in the touchdown department in 2022 -- and lay out why it makes sense to put stock into what we see.

Defining Touchdown Regression

The idea of regression can be both complex and oversimplified, and I'm going to err on the side of oversimplifying it initially.

Simply put, regression just suggests that players will return to a baseline level of performance over a larger sample.

When a player scores a ton of touchdowns, he's probably good, yes, but he's also likely to score fewer touchdowns moving forward and trend back toward his long-term baseline.

Likewise, when a player -- say -- racks up elite yardage but scores just a handful of times, he's likely to score at a higher rate moving forward.

To make it a little more complex now -- and don't worry if math isn't your thing; we're just talking touchdowns here -- we can leverage a regression model to compare various stats to touchdown totals, determine a mathematical relationship between the two stats, and then use that to find expected touchdown output.

To varying degrees, passing stats such as passing yards, passing air yards, and numberFire's Passing Net Expected Points (NEP) tell us a lot about touchdown totals. (NEP is just an Expected Points Added [EPA] model by another name.)

History tells us that when yardage goes up touchdown totals go up. And we can put a tangible number on exactly how much yardage and NEP tell us about touchdowns. That's our key here.

Testing the Process

Now, I'm going to examine just how predictive this process can be for wide receivers. We need to make sure the results are telling us anything of note.

If you don't care about the math, then you can skip ahead to the next section.

The strongest relationships with touchdowns based on the stats that I used come from these three stats.

1. Receiving Yards
2. Reception NEP
3. Successful Receptions

Successful receptions are based entirely on numberFire's Net Expected Points (NEP) model (a.k.a. an Expected Points Added [EPA] model). If a catch actually increases scoring, then it's a success. For example, this almost assuredly rules out a two-yard catch on a 3rd-and-20. That's not a meaningful play, and it's almost never leading to a touchdown.

If I deem overachievers and underachievers as players whose touchdown rate (percentage of targets that led to a touchdown) was at least 1.0% over or under their expected touchdown (xTD) rate and look at players with at least 50 targets in consecutive seasons for a reference point, here's what I found.

Since 2012, 194 players qualified as an overachiever. Of those 194, 163 (84.0%) saw their touchdown rate decrease the following season. And it fell pretty drastically on average (-3.0%).

As for the underperformers (202 of them), a good portion (75.2%) increased their touchdown rate the next season, and the bounce-back players increased their touchdown rate by an average of 1.7%.

Touchdown rates for receivers are pretty volatile, and some players can have a rate over expected based on an elite red-zone role. But overall, the math checks out.

Wide Receiver Regression Candidates for 2023

Here's a snapshot of the 2022 wide receiver class, their touchdown numbers, their expected touchdown numbers, and the difference between their touchdown total and their expected touchdown total.

The table includes receiving touchdowns only and is sorted by total expected touchdowns from 2022's performance.

Justin Jefferson, Minnesota Vikings

It's hard to look at a 128-catch, 1,809-yard season from Justin Jefferson and want more, but...he could've had more. His underlying data was great, and his numbers say he should have scored at least 11 times (11.3 xTD).

Instead, he scored "only" eight times.

Receivers with at least 1,700 receiving yards in a season in NFL history have averaged 10.4 touchdowns. That's 10.6 without Jefferson's 2022 campaign in there, and it includes a 1,964-yard, 5-touchdown season by Calvin Johnson in 2012.

As for Jefferson, he has actually accrued a lot of poor touchdown luck in his career and has underperformed his xTD total by 5.1 in his three seasons.

No matter how you slice it, Jefferson is something special -- and he could be in line for better touchdown luck soon. (Let's not ignore a position-high 28 red-zone targets in 2022, either.)

He's the number-one pick in FanDuel's best-ball fantasy football format for a reason.

Tyreek Hill, Miami Dolphins

The only other receiver with at least 10.0 xTD in 2022 was Tyreek Hill in his debut season with the Miami Dolphins.

Hill (pick 6.1 on average in best-ball drafts and the WR3 overall) totaled 1,710 yards but just 7 scores. Remember that list just referenced above? Receivers with 1,700 yards -- albeit a small list -- have averaged north of 10 touchdowns historically.

Hill didn't exactly have a featured role in the red zone (a 17.6% target share) but had enough volume and efficiency to have scored more than he did.

Davante Adams, Las Vegas Raiders

The top five names in the table above (again, sorted by xTD) all fluctuated by at least 1.8 touchdowns from expectation. None had a larger absolute gap between xTDs and actual TDs than Davante Adams.

Adams scored 14 times despite an xTD output of 9.7.

In his defense of overperforming, Adams had a dominant 31.0% red-zone target share and a 39.0% end-zone target share.

But he'll now have a new quarterback yet again, so it's at least worth noting a 4.3-touchdown gap for this year's WR8.

Amon-Ra St. Brown, Detroit Lions

Bumping outside the top five now and back on the side of someone who should score at a higher rate this season, let's talk Amon-Ra St. Brown, whose WR9 ADP puts him one slot behind Adams among the position.

St. Brown has shown early signs of underachieving in the touchdown department with single-season differentials of -1.4 in 2021 and -1.9 in 2022. That's a 3.3-touchdown swing in just two seasons -- one of the worst per-season differentials of any player since 2012.

Mathematically speaking, it's very likely St. Brown's touchdowns go up in 2023.

Terry McLaurin, Washington Commanders

One place we can always look for explanations of touchdown volatility is teammates.

Like Adam Thielen overperforming in the TD column partially explaining Justin Jefferson's career scoring lag, Terry McLaurin was hit with a touchdown outburst by Jahan Dotson in 2022.

Dotson's +3.8 touchdowns over expectation were the second-most of any receiver (trailing Adams) in 2022, and he did that on only 61 targets!

That left McLaurin's touchdown total lacking (-2.2). That's reflected in a WR23 ADP.

Garrett Wilson, New York Jets

Garrett Wilson topped 1,100 receiving yards in his breakout rookie season. But with only four touchdowns, it was a bit of a letdown.

Receivers since 2012 with between 900 and 1,300 receiving yards have averaged 6.6 touchdowns, and the underlying data for Wilson suggested 7.0 scores, putting him a full 3.0 TDs below expected.

As the WR10 in best-ball drafts, you won't get much of a discount on the touchdown output. However, the upside is pretty clear.

Chris Godwin, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Since 2012, there have been 220 receiver seasons with at least 1,000 receiving yards. Of those 220, only 11 (5.0%) were tied to 3 or fewer touchdowns. Chris Godwin (WR34) had one of those seasons in 2022.

Godwin did have a limited red-zone role (14.8% target share), and that's a big factor. But it's not the only factor for touchdowns, and his efficiency does point to better touchdown luck.

With that being said, Godwin's ostensible quarterback downgrade is something we need to factor in, as well. His WR34 ADP makes a lot of sense.

Diontae Johnson, Pittsburgh Steelers

The largest underperformer -- by far -- in 2022 was Diontae Johnson, whose 882-yard season featured no end-zone trips.

Since 2012, only one receiver had more yards (Hakeem Nicks with 896) without any touchdowns. The following season, Nicks scored 4 times on just 68 targets.

Johnson's quarterback, Kenny Pickett, is a big regression candidate himself, so don't overlook Johnson as the WR35 because of a touchdown dearth in 2022.

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.