Finding 2023's Fantasy Football League-Winning Wide Receivers Through Season Simulations

We've learned in the past from Kevin Garnett that anything is possible in the world of sports.

But what's possible and what's probable aren't always the same thing.

And while we definitely want to be optimistic on some fantasy football sleepers, it never hurts to know the probability of certain players hitting certain thresholds by the end of the season.

After all, fantasy football is a volatile game. Your first-round running back might miss half the season, and your star wide receiver may have some unfortunate touchdown luck (which even happened to Justin Jefferson in 2022!).

So what are we to do? When in doubt, simulate it out.

That's what my motto is, at least.

And in case that's not also your motto, I'm going to share my findings after simulating the 2023 NFL season 10,000 times to try and help uncover the most likely "league-winning" players at each position.

I started with the quarterbacks and tight ends. Now it's time for the wide receivers.

If you're not very interested in the math or history behind this, skip ahead to the "2023 Fantasy League-Winning Wide Receiver Odds" section.

Simulating the NFL Season

One of the big reasons that the Zero-RB strategy (i.e. going heavy on receiver, quarterback, and tight end early in your drafts) has gained traction over the years has a lot to do with how (generally) reliable the wide receiver position is.

Busts still happen, of course, but there's a good level of predictability with fantasy football receivers.

Here is how receivers -- bucketed by average draft position (ADP) -- have finished the fantasy season by position rank since 2012.

This means that 7.6% of receivers drafted as a top-six receiver (i.e. the WR1 to WR6) finished as the overall WR1 for the season. (And keep in mind that only one player can do that each season, so the top-six's hit rate -- at best -- in a season is 1 out of 6 [16.7%].)

Top-six receivers by ADP have been at least top-12 fantasy receivers 65.2% of the time over the past 11 seasons. That number drops off to 36.4% for WR7 through WR12 and then to 24.4% for WR13 to WR24.

Basically, early receivers -- as a collective -- finish the season well.

Now it's time to leverage that (combined with numberFire's fantasy football projections) to try to identify this year's league-winning rates for wide receivers.

2023 Fantasy League-Winning Wide Receiver Odds

Here are the results of the 10,000 season simulations and each wide receiver's average draft position in FanDuel's best ball fantasy football formats.

I know that a lot of these are going to look "wrong," but when we look back at history, they largely check out. They do a good job of accounting for historical injury rates, overperformance or underperformance ranges, and anything else that can make or break a fantasy season.

The math on this one checks out pretty much everywhere (i.e. comparing these odds -- roughly -- to the historical ADP trends), so we're good on that front.

Justin Jefferson and Ja'Marr Chase tend to have elevated projections across the industry, thus putting themselves into a top tier all to themselves (and it's very easy to consider Jefferson in a tier all by himself). Combined, they soaked up 25.8% of the WR1 seasons in the simulations, thanks to their elite projections.

Depending on where you look, other players are occasionally in that top tier, but the only two constants really seem to be Jefferson and Chase.

Tier 2 looks like four players: Tyreek Hill, Cooper Kupp, Stefon Diggs, and CeeDee Lamb. They all have at least 50.0% odds to be a top-12 receiver and a 28.2% chance to be a top-five receiver.

As expected from there, it's a gradual decrease to the next level of wide receivers, yet Davante Adams, A.J. Brown, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and Jaylen Waddle deserve a shoutout for returning at least a 60.0% chance to be the WR24 or better.

Adams could either be in the Hill-Kupp-Diggs-Lamb tier or this one, depending on your level of optimism with his new quarterback situation.

Overall, only 18 receivers have at least a 1.0% chance to be the overall WR1 because even if Jefferson (and/or Chase) misses time or has an unexpectedly down season from a production standpoint, there are a lot of names in contention right behind him to be the guy this season.

Some potential values based on FanDuel best ball ADP include Tyler Lockett (WR33) and Marquise Brown (WR43).

I think the biggest takeaway here, perhaps, is that Jefferson and Chase are the consensus studs and that, with the gradual tiering of the position, we can largely bank on our personal preferences when looking at any given cluster of receivers on draft day.

Rankings between A.J. Brown, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and Jaylen Waddle might differ by four or five spots, but the odds are typically pretty close in a range that tight. So wide receiver is definitely not a place to be stuck to the rankings so long as the projections are within shouting distance of one another.

While you wait for Week 1's daily fantasy football slates to lock, you can get in on some best-ball fantasy football drafts on FanDuel, as well. Just draft your team and watch the points pile up throughout the season.

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.