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Fantasy Football Winners and Losers From Week 11

Jim Sannes
Jim Sannes@JimSannes

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Fantasy Football Winners and Losers From Week 11

Sometimes, a young quarterback just needs some confidence.

We've seen the role that can play in a guy's career. Baker Mayfield and Geno Smith didn't magically become talented out of nowhere; it just seemed like they needed to find a good situation and rebuild confidence.

Week 11 saw some quarterbacks who needed a jolt get one.

We're going to start there in laying out whose stock is up and whose is down coming out of Week 11. It may not mean these quarterbacks are fixed, but it does mean their outlook now is rosier than it was.

As a note, none of the "stock up" players will be as a result of injuries to their teammates. For a rundown of key injuries from Sunday, check out our Week 11 fantasy football recap. All snap rates referenced are via Next Gen Stats. "RZ Share" is the percentage of team carries or targets inside the red zone, and a "deep" target is one more than 15 yards beyond the line of scrimmage.

Fantasy Football Stock Up

Anthony Richardson

After a two-week benching, Anthony Richardson primarily needed a steady Week 11 to get things pointed in the right direction.

His actual results were a bit better than that, even.

Richardson averaged 0.19 Passing Net Expected Points (NEP, numberFire's EPA metric) per drop back on his 32 drop backs Sunday. That's a good amount above the league average and easily clear of his pre-benching mark (-0.12).

That efficiency is despite the fact that most of his volume came on late downs. Only 13 of his drop backs came on 1st or 2nd down, so the New York Jets knew there were increased odds of a pass most of the time. Richardson still was solid.

The early-down versus late-down split is why we should still be cautious with the pass-catchers. They're not trying to have Richardson rip it a bunch, putting a lid on the receivers' median and ceiling expectations. Richardson, himself, though, gets a boost up.

Richardson added a pair of short touchdowns on the ground. If he can give you something as a passer while doing what he does as a rusher, he can be an every-week fantasy starter. Sunday was a move in the right direction for him, even if we need a larger sample before we declare him fully "back."

Moneyline

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Total Match Points

Nov 24 6:00pm UTCMore odds in Sportsbook

Caleb Williams

Sure, the Chicago Bears lost in heart-breaking fashion on Sunday.

But Caleb Williams looked good in his first game with a new offensive coordinator, and that matters way more than wins and losses this year.

Williams averaged 0.22 Passing NEP per drop back, well clear of his season-long mark of -0.07 entering the game.

That number doesn't count Williams' legs, which were active. He ran 9 times for 70 yards, both either tying or setting new season-highs. Four of those were designed runs after he had 11 across the first 9 games combined.

This is good for Williams' fantasy value as it provides a higher baseline, assuming they keep him involved as a rusher. But it also just seemed to add an extra element that the offense needed, which boosts everybody.

It's easier to envision Williams getting the combo of passing volume and efficiency that we're looking for than Richardson, and that's key to unlocking his ceiling. We should still likely prefer Richardson due to the higher rushing expectation, but things definitely moved in the right direction for Williams Sunday despite the loss.

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Nov 24 6:00pm UTCMore odds in Sportsbook

Matthew Stafford

Clearly, Matthew Stafford also belongs in the "young guys who run" bucket, right?

Even without anything in that department, Sunday was another good one for Stafford, which was encouraging after a disappointing effort on Monday Night Football in Week 10. Here, Stafford threw for 295 yards and 4 touchdowns, his second 4-touchdown game in the past month.

He had three passing touchdowns all season prior to that.

The key here is obviously Puka Nacua. In Nacua's three full games, Stafford has averaged 289.0 passing yards and 2.7 touchdowns per game. That touchdown number should regress, but they're more willing to air it out in the red zone now that they've got healthy pass-catchers again. Stafford is the beneficiary.

Stafford will still be dependent on huge games through the air in order to generate a ceiling, which does ding him in both season-long and DFS. But it's nice to know he can do that now, putting him back on the streaming menu and in DFS consideration in the right matchups.

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Nov 25 1:20am UTCMore odds in Sportsbook

Taysom Hill

We can't expect 188 yards from scrimmage out of Taysom Hill every week.

But knowing he can do it is more than you can say about most tight ends, making him a massive winner in leagues where he's tight end-eligible.

Omitting Week 4 (when Hill left early due to injury), he has now averaged 65.7 yards from scrimmage and 0.7 touchdowns per game. Those 65.7 yards from scrimmage per game would rank third among tight ends, trailing only Brock Bowers (71.5) and George Kittle (70.0). That's before even discussing Hill's red-zone role, which boosts his touchdown expectation, as well.

Additionally, it does seem like they're featuring him more with Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed sidelined. They need playmakers, and -- like it or not -- Hill is one. In three games with Olave out or leaving early, Hill has averaged 5.3 carries and 5.7 targets per game, including a career-high 10 targets Sunday.

Hill's a top-five tight end the rest of the way. He'll have poor games, but as Sunday showed, even guys like Travis Kelce can have those. When the payoff is as good as it was this week, he's well worth the risk and even flex-worthy if you have another strong option at the position.

Brock Bowers

The Las Vegas Raiders realize they have something special in Brock Bowers and have decided to just run the offense entirely through him.

Bowers set career-highs in both targets (16) and yards from scrimmage (126) on Sunday. This was actually his first time topping the century mark despite hitting 90 yards 3 separate times.

Bowers currently ranks ninth in yards from scrimmage among all pass-catchers, not just tight ends, according to Stathead. He's likely due for some touchdown regression, as well, with just three scores on the season thus far.

Obviously, he's an every-week guy for season-long. For DFS, I always struggle getting to players of his profile (high salaries within poor offenses) because touchdown expectation is lower for them than their peers. I might have to tweak that approach because Bowers is simply too good to ignore right now.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba

Jaxon Smith-Njigba's 110-yard day Sunday was his third time going over 100 this season.

Importantly, though, this one came alongside D.K. Metcalf, meaning it's possible the JSN breakout we've been waiting for is finally coming.

If we look at the games Metcalf has played, Smith-Njigba's target shares are slowly starting to creep up on the offense's incumbent alpha.

With Metcalf Active
Overall Targets
Deep Targets
RZ Targets
DK Metcalf23.3%45.6%20.0%
Jaxon Smith-Njigba21.7%24.6%23.3%
Tyler Lockett16.3%22.8%23.3%

That 24.6% deep target share isn't an amazing number, but Smith-Njigba does have multiple deep targets in three straight games with Metcalf, and he had six alongside Metcalf in Week 2, as well. His upside is very clearly on the rise.

Metcalf is still the WR1 within this offense, but Smith-Njigba is boosting both his median and ceiling expectations. We shouldn't be surprised if this gap continues to close as the season goes along.

Moneyline

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Total Match Points

Nov 24 9:25pm UTCMore odds in Sportsbook

Will Dissly

I yelled at my colleague, Brandon Gdula, when he told me on Slack last week that Will Dissly was going to score twice in Week 11.

Even though Dissly scored just once, I have to concede that Brandon was right. Please don't tell him I said that.

Dissly took over as the Los Angeles Chargers' top tight end coming out of their bye. Since then, he has played four games alongside Quentin Johnston. Here's the team's target shares in that time.

With Johnston Since Bye
Overall Targets
Deep Targets
RZ Targets
Ladd McConkey24.1%25.8%8.3%
Will Dissly18.5%12.9%25.0%
Quentin Johnston16.7%22.6%16.7%

We want our tight ends to get volume and be tied to efficient offenses. With Justin Herbert absolutely shredding right now, Dissly gives us both.

Frankly, I just want pieces of this offense in general, whether it's via Dissly or Johnston. They're efficient, throwing at a decent clip, and getting concentrated enough usage to be viable. It's just a delight to get to enjoy this offense once again, and Dissly is -- somehow -- a key part of that.

Fantasy Football Stock Down

D'Andre Swift

The one person whose stock took a hit with the coordinator change in Chicago was D'Andre Swift.

Swift played just 54.4% of the snaps Sunday, his lowest mark since Week 3. Roschon Johnson ate into his high-leverage looks, as well.

In Week 11
Carries
Targets
Yards From Scrimmage
Snap Rate
RZ Share
D'Andre Swift1428454.4%14.3%
Roschon Johnson1014144.1%57.1%

Swift is still startable in season-long. He did, after all, score a long touchdown, which is why his yardage output was still fine. But his role could be declining, and Johnson's red-zone role means we shouldn't bank on touchdowns going forward.

As for Johnson, he's close to having standalone value with the potential for more should he continue to eat into Swift's usage. With six teams on bye in Week 12, Johnson is at least a consideration as a desperation flex play.

Aaron Jones

Surprisingly, Cam Akers has played pretty well since joining the Minnesota Vikings, allowing them to finally trim back Aaron Jones' snaps a bit.

Jones played just 55.2% of the snaps Sunday, his lowest since Week 1 in games he didn't miss time due to injury. He still had 15 carries and 1 target, but that was actually his fewest adjusted opportunities (carries plus two-times his target total) in a full game all season.

With Jones, the situation is different than with Swift. There, Johnson is genuinely talented and could be earning more work. Here, Jones is definitively the better back; the Vikings just need to get him a breather to keep him healthy all season. Thus, I'm still far more optimistic here than I am with Swift.

We just should expect Jones' role to be closer to what it was Sunday than what it was earlier in the season now that they have a viable alternative in Akers.

Nick Chubb

I thought there was at least a chance that Nick Chubb's role would expand coming out of the bye. He was two weeks further removed from his knee injury, and he was in an elite matchup with the Saints' leaky run defense.

Nope.

Instead, Chubb played a season-low 28.6% of the snaps as the Cleveland Browns were forced into catch-up mode. He finished with 50 yards from scrimmage, putting his full-season average at 42.3.

If we could bank on an expanded role going forward, I wouldn't care much about that. But Sunday lowered the odds of that happening, especially with the team clearly out of the playoff hunt.

We can still consider Chubb in season-long if we expect the Browns to get a lead. That's just tough to bank on right now, and it makes Chubb someone who's best left on the bench in most scenarios.

Audric Estime

Audric Estime's run as the Denver Broncos' lead back was short-lived.

On Sunday, he played just 21.7% of the snaps, and that likely would have been lower had it not been for the blowout score. They rode with Javonte Williams, instead, and Williams looked solid enough.

It's going to be tough to trust anybody in this backfield until they firmly establish themselves as the lead guy. They're clearly experimenting with the personnel and usage back there, which isn't a bad idea from a football perspective. It's just tough for us in fantasy. Thus, Estime is best left on the bench for the time being.


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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.

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