College Football Playoff Bracket Pool Tips, Advice, and Picks
With the College Football Playoff bracket expanding from 4 to 12 teams, bracket pools will likely begin to be an annual staple for many fans. In most pools, you fill out your bracket and whoever holds the most accurate bracket when it's all said and done gets the bragging rights. Essentially, think March Madness bracket pools but make it football.
In a 12-team field -- compared to the 68-team field in basketball -- there's far less room for error. Therefore, most winning brackets in pools (depending on the size of the group) will need to get nearly every game correct.
What are some strategies we can use for College Football Playoff bracket pools? Check out our tips and picks for brackets in the inaugural 12-team College Football Playoff along with various College Football Playoff odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.
You can download our full College Football Playoff Bracket here.
CFB Playoff Bracket Advice
In the intro, I compared the CFP bracket to the basketball NCAA Tourney, but the NFL playoffs is probably a more sound comparison. Avoiding complete chalk is probably a wise decision, but it's unlikely that this is complete mayhem like college basketball. Some upsets will probably happen, but it's unlikely that double-digit seeds advance deep into the playoff.
Look at how the CFP has panned out over the last few years. From season to season, only a handful of teams truly feel like true national title contenders. There is a clear talent gap in college football -- perhaps more than any other sport out there. Heavyweights like the Oregon Ducks, Georgia Bulldogs, Texas Longhorns, and Ohio State Buckeyes have far more talented rosters than 99.9% of college football teams. Powerhouses will probably beat teams like the Boise State Broncos 9 times out of 10.
Just take a look at the first-round matchup odds. Every single game carries a point spread of at least 7.5 points. No. 8 Ohio State is 7.5-point favorites against the No. 9 Tennessee Volunteers, and the No. 7 Notre Dame Fighting Irish are also a 7.5-point favorite against the No. 10 Indiana Hoosiers. Some of this can be chalked up to a home-field advantage, but Ohio State and Notre Dame simply carry the more talented rosters, too.
As mentioned, complete chalk probably won't lead to the best bracket. Take an upset here and there, but picking your upsets in the later rounds seems like the best choice.
In the first year of the 12-team playoff, the seeding process was -- frankly -- a mess. This has led to several high seeds likely drawing some tough matchups in the quarterfinals. For example, No. 1 Oregon could face No. 8 Ohio State in the quarters. In the regular season, the Ducks beat Ohio State by only one point at home. FanDuel's hypothetical college football odds have Oregon as just a 1.5-point favorite over OSU.
On the other side of the bracket, No. 2 Georgia and No. 7 Notre Dame could meet up in the quarters, and FanDuel actually has the Irish as a 1.5-point favorite in that game as the Dawgs are expected to be without quarterback Carson Beck (elbow).
Simply put, a handful of teams with the best rosters should be in consideration to win it all -- which we will get to later. Some upsets should be taken, too, though expecting too much chaos in the first-round matchups could be a fool's errand. Before we get into our favorites to win the bracket, let's look at some potential upsets.
College Football Playoff Upset Picks
In the first round of the playoffs, each home team is heavily favored. The Clemson Tigers are the biggest underdogs as 11.5-point 'dogs at Texas. This is one I'm willing to completely glance over.
Moving to Tennessee-Ohio State, the Buckeyes are vulnerable following a loss against Michigan. However, OSU will have a home night crowd behind them and will likely play angry. With the Buckeyes one of football's most talented teams, this should be a tricky spot for Tennessee.
Perhaps the most likely upsets are the SMU Mustangs against the Penn State Nittany Lions and Indiana visiting Notre Dame. Penn State has a reputation for losing big games, and SMU has an elite run defense that can deal with the Nittany Lions' high rush-play rate. Notre Dame carries a similar perception to Penn State, failing to truly contend in the postseason for a while now. However, there are some real reasons to be in on the Fighting Irish this time around, as highlighted by our CFB playoff dark horse picks.
If I had to circle one first-round upset, it'd be SMU over PSU. The Mustangs excel at stopping the run, and quarterback Kevin Jennings has the ability to take over a game. If this goes down, even taking SMU to make the semifinals carries value. The 'Stangs hold +450 odds to make the CFP semifinals.
Going back to Notre Dame, the Fighting Irish have a very favorable pull. They get to avoid Oregon (+360), Texas (+360), and Ohio State (+500) -- who are all among the four shortest odds to win the national championship. Georgia has an injury at quarterback, giving ND a real chance of advancing to the semifinal. We talked about Penn State's inability to win big games, and as a Group of Five squad, Boise State will always be overlooked. If the Irish can get to the semifinal, I wouldn't write off a national championship appearance. Notre Dame sports +390 odds to make the national championship game.
If you can get past coach James Franklin's failures in big games, Penn State is another popular pick to advance deep into the bracket. They'd likely be notable favorites against No. 3 Boise State in the quarters and facing a shorthanded Georgia squad feels like a winnable game. Taking the No. 6 Lions to play in the natty is another head-turner, listed at +215 odds.
In the top half of the bracket, Oregon, Texas, and Ohio State are clearly the top teams. All three are in the top five of NET EPA per play; Notre Dame is the only other team in the playoff to be in the top five of this category -- further fueling our pick for the Irish playing in the championship.
Back to the task at hand, I wouldn't consider any of these potential matchups as "upsets," but Ohio State and/or Texas are teams with lower seeds that certainly have the ability to take out Oregon. The Buckeyes closed as 3.5-point favorites on the road against the Ducks in October. Depending on how OSU looks in the first round, it could be favored once again over Oregon. While it might not end up being an upset by the betting odds, taking an 8 seed over a 1 seed is appealing. If the Buckeyes get past Oregon to the semifinals, a win over Texas would also seem plausible. Ohio State has +310 odds to make the national championship, mostly due to a brutal stretch ahead.
The Longhorns also carry some plus odds at +215 to play for a natty (not far from Oregon's +186 odds). Texas could have the most favorable stretch to the semifinals, which includes Clemson in Round 1 followed by the Arizona State Sun Devils in the quarters. Texas is listed as a 13.5-point favorite over ASU. That's a pretty nice path to the semifinals, although things would get much tougher there. The Horns are the most likely "upset" pick to represent the top half of the bracket, though picking OSU to make deep run could provide more upside in bracket pools due to the Buckeyes' tough path.
In light of the Christmas spirit, let's wrap everything up in a neat bow. The top of the bracket probably won't feature early upsets due to Texas' and Ohio State's supreme talent. The Longhorns will probably be favored to coast to the semifinals. The first likely "upset" I like is the Buckeyes over the Ducks. As two national title contenders, Texas and Ohio State are realistic picks to represent the top of the bracket in the national title game.
The bottom of the bracket is where things could get messy. A deep run from SMU would be a surprise, but don't write it off due to Penn State's repeated failures in big games. Boise State awaiting in the quarterfinals could mean a deep run for the Mustangs, potentially leading to a winning bracket in pools for those who back SMU to make it to the semis. But my favorite pick to come out of the bottom of the bracket is Notre Dame. The Fighting Irish are rolling and look like one of college football's best teams. A banged-up Georgia team makes this run even more likely.
Who Will Win the College Football Playoff?
We've gotten through the messy parts of the bracket. This one is simple: who will win it all?
As mentioned, college football is usually led by a handful of teams that are way above the rest. We have four teams in the top five of NET EPA per play: Ohio State, Texas, Oregon, and Notre Dame. Georgia has the third-shortest odds to win the national championship (+500), but I have a hard time backing them due to Beck's injury and the Bulldogs' suspect pass defense (15th in EPA allowed per dropback).
Among the four-squad group, Notre Dame is the biggest longshot at +700 to win it all, but that number has dropped significantly since the bracket was unveiled. The Fighting Irish began at +1100 odds on Monday morning, which dropped to +850 by Monday afternoon. As of Wednesday afternoon, ND is now +700 to win it all. College Football Data's Elo Ratings have Notre Dame carrying the highest likelihood to win the national championship (28.1%).
You probably guessed the next three teams with the highest likelihood: Oregon (16.5%), Texas (16.3%), and Ohio State (14.3%). This is nearly neck and neck, with all three teams among the top four favorites to bring home the hardware. It's fair to put all three of these teams in the same vicinity when it comes to roster talent, as well.
Ultimately, I'd stack my chips on whoever comes out of the top half of the bracket. Any of these three squads have a more talented roster than Notre Dame does, proven by NFL Draft prospects on each roster. Each of the three would probably feature a more complete team if it's Georgia happens to be sitting there, as well. The trick is circling which team is the best bet among the three.
Ohio State hasn't really showcased its ceiling all year, so let's opt for Oregon or Texas. The Longhorns do not have a single top-25 win, losing both matchups against Georgia. The Ducks are the only undefeated team in college football, holding wins over Boise State, Ohio State, Illinois, and Penn State. This is the most proven team in the field -- hence the No. 1 seed.
Oregon is tied for the shortest odds to win it all (+360), and CFB Data gives it the highest likelihood to win it all (16.5%) among the teams in the top half of the bracket. Sitting behind Ohio State and Texas in NET EPA per play is slightly concerning, but I'll hang my hat on all of those big-time wins from the Ducks this season, as seen in our staff picks.
If you want to swing for the fences, Notre Dame could be your best bet. But the most likely champion looks to be Oregon.
Filling out a bracket can be a lot to digest, even in this small 12-team field. In my eyes, the biggest lesson from this piece is this: go for upsets in the quarterfinals, and take one of Oregon, Texas, or Ohio State to win the national championship.
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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.