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3 Dark Horse Teams in the College Football Playoff

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3 Dark Horse Teams in the College Football Playoff

The final College Football Playoff bracket has finally been unveiled. The biggest story was the Alabama Crimson Tide being left out of the field, becoming perhaps the biggest playoff snub. The top half of the bracket is also quite top heavy, featuring three of the top four favorites to win the national championship. The Texas Longhorns and Penn State Nittany Lions are two teams perceived to have "easy paths" by many. Plus, the Georgia Bulldogs got a much more favorable pull compared to their national championship favorite counterparts.

With that said, we have plenty of directions to take when looking at FanDuel Sportsbook's college football playoff odds. This includes several darkhorse picks with juicy odds. Here are three improbable runs that should be on your radar.,

Biggest Dark Horses in the College Football Playoff Bracket

Notre Dame to Win National Championship (+850)

One team is standing out as a sleeper to win it all. It's none other than the Notre Dame Fighting Irish.

Look I get it; taking this team seriously has been a challenge for years. However, Notre Dame has won 10 consecutive games while going 9-1 against the spread (ATS). The Irish also carry an average scoring margin of +30.7 points during the blistering hot streak. Notre Dame has been one of the nation's top teams, proven by holding the fourth-best mark in net EPA per play.

There are still questions about the Fighting Irish's ability to win a big game. That brand is still there, and their four top-25 matchups came against Texas A&M, Louisville, Navy, and Army. Only one of these teams is still in the top 25 of the College Football Playoff rankings (No. 22 Army). Notre Dame is about to have a huge step up in competition, starting with the No. 8 Indiana Hoosiers, who were awarded the 10 seed.

With that said, the Irish are heavily favored in the first round as 7.5-point favorites at home. With a win, Notre Dame would get a quarterfinal matchup in the Sugar Bowl against the Georgia Bulldogs, who will be without quarterback Carson Beck (elbow).

Assuming the Fighting Irish can take care of Indiana, a matchup against Georgia feels more than winnable. In a full half of play against the Texas Longhorns, backup QB Gunner Stockton totaled only 71 passing yards and 4.4 yards per passing attempt. A one-dimensional offense would be an excellent matchup for Notre Dame's defense that allows the fourth-fewest EPA per play.

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On the other side of the ball, the Dawgs will likely depend on forcing turnovers as they nabbed three in the win against Texas . The Irish are logging 1.0 giveaways per contest (top 17%) paired with a +1.3 turnover margin per game (second-best).

The bottom of the CFP bracket feels like a clear race between Penn State, Notre Dame, and Georgia. The Boise State Broncos hold the No. 3 seed and are +310 to just make the semifinals -- which would require only one win. Plus, Penn State still has a problem winning big games under coach James Franklin. If Notre Dame can get through Georgia -- which I like its chances -- a national championship appearance looks likely.

With that said, the Fighting Irish's +850 odds to win it is oozing with potential. Since Monday morning, that line has dropped from +1100. Among teams to win the national championship, Notre Dame is my favorite value pick -- especially with quarterback Riley Leonard logging Pro Football Focus passing grades of at least 74.0 in five straight games. The icing on the cake is College Football Data's Elo Ratings gives Notre Dame the highest probability to win the national championship (28.1%), and the next-best likelihood is carried by the Oregon Ducks (16.5%).

SMU to Make the Semifinals (+450)

Staying in the bottom half of the bracket, some upsets could be imminent. Georgia is dealing with an injury at quarterback while Penn State and Notre Dame have struggled to be relevant in the postseason for years.

I'd particularly like to focus on Penn State. The Nittany Lions have one top-25 win on the season against Illinois, which is currently ranked 20th. PSU won this game 21-7 and have looked shaky at times against lesser teams, including a one point win over Minnesota in Week 13. Going back and forth with Oregon in a 45-37 loss in the Big Ten Championship provides a little comfort, but this feels similar to the 20-13 loss against the Ohio State Buckeyes. The Lions trailed by multiple scores for most of the game against the Ducks, and they were outscored 20-3 to end the game against Ohio State.

With that said, I'm not that worried about the SMU Mustangs' weak schedule in the ACC. They have two top-25 wins, but Louisville and Pittsburgh are now unranked. The Clemson Tigers led by as many as 17 points in the ACC Championship, yet SMU showed fight by tying the game at 31-31 with 16 seconds remaining.

Following a heartbreaking loss, the Mustangs feels undervalued as 8.5-point underdogs on the road against Penn State. SMU ranks fifth in EPA allowed per rushing attempt and surrenders only 2.8 yards per carry (third-fewest) and 98.3 passing yards per game (eighth-fewest). The Nittany Lions carry a 56.7% rush play rate (top 25%). If PSU can't run the ball effectively, the 'Stangs should be in business.

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Taking out the Nittany Lions will be SMU's biggest challenge. If it pulls off the upset, a quarterfinal matchup could go either way against Boise State. Once again, the Mustangs' elite run defense should come into play against the Broncos' 56.8% rush play rate (top 25%).

SMU's quarterback Kevin Jennings is averaging 294.0 passing yards per game over his last five, logging PFF passing grades of at least 83.0 in three of those five contests. Considering the Mustangs' run defense that could fare well against two run-heavy teams, those +450 odds to make the semifinal don't look too shabby.

Tennessee to Make the Semifinals (+860)

We have one more darkhorse to make the semifinal, and it comes in the most difficult part of the bracket. The best first round matchup is likely between the Tennessee Volunteers and Ohio State Buckeyes (favored by 7.5 points). About 76% of spread bets have been on the road underdog Tennessee.

Since 1977, the Vols' coldest game was a game-time temperature of 28 degrees against Missouri in 2015. December 21st could bring similar temperatures as the matchup kicks off at 8 p.m. ET, and early forecasts in Columbus are calling for temperatures in the low 30s. Big Ten fans have been clamoring to host SEC squads in the cold for years, but Tennessee could be better suited than Ohio State for cold weather.

The Volunteers carry a 60.8% rush play rate (top 8%) paired with 5.0 yards per carry (top 22%). In comparison, the Buckeyes own a 53.2% rush play rate (top 48%) and also average 5.0 yards per carry. Tennessee gives up the fewest EPA per carry while OSU ranks third in the category. Running the rock will likely be difficult for both teams.

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However, UT's chances of winning the run game feels more likely. The Buckeyes are still dealing with injuries on the offensive line and will likely shift the unit yet again following a poor showing in the loss to Michigan. Keep in mind the Volunteers' biggest strength is probably their front seven, which includes projected first-round edge rusher James Pearce Jr.

If the Vols can topple Ohio State -- which carries the fourth-shortest odds to win the national championship (+500) -- defeating Oregon is certainly possible. When pressured, quarterback Dillon Gabriel has a 63.7 PFF passing grade (90.1 passing grade this season). This once again plays into Tennessee's biggest strength. If the defensive front seven plays well, the Vols could be poised for a run.

Still, this is a long shot as going on the road against Ohio State followed by Oregon in the Rose Bowl will be a tough road. Tennessee could be worth a dart to make the semifinal, though, considering the juicy +860 odds.


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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.

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