Fantasy Football Week 11 Injuries, Breakouts, Snap Rates, and Takeaways
We can sometimes make jokes about Taysom Hill on social media.
We joke about his age. His salary. His athletic testing scores.
But at the end of the day, the dude is a good football player. And at some point, we should just accept that and treat him like the fantasy asset he is.
Unsurprisingly, Hill will be a key talking point in recapping all that we saw across Week 11 from a fantasy perspective. We'll get to him in the role-change section, on top of some other key surprises, injuries to note, and much more across all the action.
All snap-rate and average depth of target (aDOT) data is via Next-Gen Stats unless noted otherwise. A "deep" target here is a target more than 15 yards beyond the line of scrimmage.
Week 11 Fantasy Football Injuries
Darnell Mooney
Darnell Mooney missed most of the second half of the Atlanta Falcons' blowout loss Sunday due to a hamstring injury, putting his status in doubt even with the Falcons heading into their bye.
Mooney missing time would be tough for the offense. He's their most potent downfield threat as Drake London better operates in the intermediate part of the field. If Mooney is out, I would downgrade Kirk Cousins.
It would boost London, though. London has a 25.5% target share, and guys with his talent can occasionally push to near 30%. Even without tons of downfield work, London would have a ceiling via volume alone.
This would also boost Kyle Pitts and Ray-Ray McCloud. Pitts had just three targets Sunday, but he's clearly the second most talented true pass-catcher (excluding Bijan Robinson) on the team. They'd find a way to get him more involved if Mooney couldn't go. It'd make Pitts a solid starter for season-long and a DFS consideration.
McCloud probably wouldn't have the necessary ceiling for DFS, but he could be a desperation option for season-long. His target share for the season is 15.8%, so he has remained involved even with Mooney and London dominating looks. He should be on the waiver radar depending on what news we get on Mooney's timeline.
Tyjae Spears
Tyjae Spears finally got back on the field last week, but he left to be evaluated for a concussion Sunday and didn't return.
Spears had played quite a bit until that point. He still finished with a 43.6% snap rate as he and Tony Pollard actually shared the field on four plays. He probably would have eclipsed 50% had it not been for the injury.
The team has consistently said they don't want to over-work Pollard, and their record is now 2-8. Therefore, we shouldn't expect Pollard's snap rate to shoot back up into the 80% range where it was without Spears earlier.
At the same time, they have nothing on the roster. Julius Chestnut played exclusively special teams Sunday despite Spears' injury. So, we should bump up Pollard if Spears misses time while being cautious not to go too far, given the combo of team situation and inefficiency.
Gabe Davis
In what was already an ugly Week 11 loss, the Jacksonville Jaguars lost Gabriel Davis to a knee injury, and he did not return.
If Trevor Lawrence doesn't return, this won't matter much, given how hideous Mac Jones has played. It'll be hard for even Brian Thomas Jr. and Evan Engram to live up to expectations there.
If Lawrence does come back, though, an absence for Davis would boost Thomas and put Parker Washington further on the map. Washington ran 19 routes on 30 drop backs even with Davis playing the first half, and he has had times where he has earned downfield targets.
Even with Lawrence and without Davis, Washington's median expectation would be very low, but there'd at least be a chance he'd develop into a fantasy-relevant player.
Alexander Mattison and Zamir White
Both Alexander Mattison (ankle) and Zamir White (quad) sustained injuries in Week 11 and were unable to return.
This left Ameer Abdullah as the lone active running back, but he'd be unlikely to command much early-down work even if both players miss time. Even as the lone healthy option, Abdullah still logged just 1 carry and 3 targets on a 35.5% snap rate on Sunday.
Regardless of where the Las Vegas Raiders turn, this is likely to be a committee, and it's in an offense incapable of running the football. It would boost the passing game, giving us more incentive to slobber over Brock Bowers after his 13-target, 126-yard day.
Fantasy Football Role Changes
Taysom Hill
We've known Taysom Hill was fantasy-relevant for a while. There's a reason his salary was $6,300 on FanDuel entering Sunday.
But, my goodness, did he go nuts.
Hill set career-highs in targets (10), rushing yards (138), and yards from scrimmage (188). That 188 yards from scrimmage is the eighth-highest mark of the season, according to Stathead.
Oh, and he scored three times.
It's clear the New Orleans Saints have decided to make Hill a bigger focal point now that both Rashid Shaheed and Chris Olave are sidelined. In his three games with Derek Carr since returning, here's what Hill has done (with "RZ Share" being the percentage of team carries or targets he has gotten inside the red zone).
With Carr Back | Carries | Targets | Yards From Scrimmage | RZ Share |
---|---|---|---|---|
Week 9 | 5 | 5 | 41 | 20.0% |
Week 10 | 4 | 2 | 60 | 10.0% |
Week 11 | 7 | 10 | 188 | 44.4% |
Averages | 5.3 | 5.7 | 96.3 | 24.1% |
Clearly, Sunday was an outlier, and we shouldn't expect that going forward. He got by on some massive plays, which are tough to project. But even an average of 50 yards from scrimmage isn't bad for a tight end when a three-touchdown game is within his range of outcomes.
If you've got Hill in season-long, he's a firm starting consideration as long as scoring expectations for the Saints are reasonable. And in DFS, he has a better ceiling than any other tight end in the league, keeping him consistently on the tournament radar.
Javonte Williams and Audric Estime
After Audric Estime led the Denver Broncos in snaps last week, it looked like he had supplanted Javonte Williams as the lead back.
Sean Payton gave that notion the middle finger in Week 11.
Williams surged back to life, playing 53.3% of the snaps, a number that would have been higher had the game remained competitive. He had 9 carries and 5 targets for 87 yards from scrimmage.
As for Estime, he had just 6 carries and 3 targets on a 21.7% snap rate.
Williams is back to being the lead guy for now, meaning he's a viable flex play in what has become a weirdly fun offense. And Estime is still worth rostering, but you shouldn't start him unless you're absolutely desperate.
Christian Watson
Christian Watson exploded for a career-high 150 receiving yards on Sunday. Although it came on just four targets, a lot of the underlying data was super encouraging.
The big thing is that the target total is deceptive. The Green Bay Packers had just 18 drop backs and 17 targeted throws, meaning Watson had a 23.5% target share. He played 69.8% of the snaps and ran a route on 77.8% of the drop backs, both marks better than where he has typically been this year.
Finally, all of the targets were high-leverage looks as Watson had a 24.5-yard aDOT. You don't typically get yards after the catch on those kinds of balls, but Watson logged 51 of his 150 after the catch, showing just how dynamic he can be.
Watson is regaining the ceiling he showed as a rookie, making him startable in season-long and usable in DFS even if he's unlikely to have a great median expectation in an offense that spreads the ball around. This is easily the best Watson's outlook has been all season.
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Aaron Jones
Aaron Jones has been battling injuries all year long, so it behooved the Minnesota Vikings to trim his workload a bit.
They're finally able to do that thanks to some nifty play out of Cam Akers.
Jones played just 55.2% of the snaps this Sunday, his lowest mark in a full game since their blowout win in Week 1. He still had 15 carries and a target, so it's not as if he was a non-factor, but they were actively trying to give him a breather.
We need to give Jones a downward adjustment going forward as a result. The production won't be as bad as it was Sunday -- the Titans are a super tough matchup for running backs -- but we should view him as more of a 60% snap rate guy than the 75% mark he was hitting earlier this year.
Nick Chubb
The warning signs that Nick Chubb would lose snaps in a negative script were there in Week 9.
Sunday was even worse, and it confirmed that his role wasn't automatically expanding after the Cleveland Browns' bye.
Chubb played a season-low 28.6% of the snaps. He got a carry on more than half of his snaps (11 of 20), but he got 0 targets and ran just 7 routes.
Unless the Browns have a lead, there's a good chance Chubb's snap rate will dip under 50%, and as we saw, even 50% might be optimistic.
This puts a big dent in Chubb's median expectation outside of projected positive scripts, and it means he'll be dependent on multi-touchdown days and long runs to generate a ceiling. That ups the appeal of alternatives in season-long and makes it tough for him to burn you for not using him in DFS.
Noteworthy Fantasy Football Usage
Anthony Richardson
Anthony Richardson looked good in his return to the starting lineup, and it came via both the ground and the air.
Richardson had a career-high 241 passing yards on 30 pass attempts. He added 10 carries for 32 yards with a pair of short touchdowns.
The rushing gives him a floor in fantasy. In order to generate a ceiling, he needs to have something with his arm, as well. On Sunday, he had that.
This is enough to put Richardson back on the streaming radar and in the consideration set for DFS. I'd still temper expectations for his pass-catchers, but Richardson, himself, got a solid vote of confidence here.
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Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua
We've now got three full games with Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua together, and, whew, baby, are they cooking.
Both guys went for at least 100 yards and a touchdown Sunday, and they combined for 19 of 27 targets.
In those aforementioned three games, here's each player's workload for the Los Angeles Rams.
3 Full Games Together | Overall Targets | Deep Targets | RZ Targets |
---|---|---|---|
Puka Nacua | 30.5% | 43.5% | 25.0% |
Cooper Kupp | 23.8% | 21.7% | 31.3% |
You'll happily take Kupp's usage. But Nacua's in superstar territory.
In those three games, Nacua has 106, 98, and 123 yards, and he has the building blocks for even more yardage than that. He's the kind of guy we want to target in DFS, even moreso than Kupp despite Kupp's two-touchdown day on Sunday.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba
With D.K. Metcalf back from a knee injury, Week 11 was to be a big test of whether the upside Jaxon Smith-Njigba showed in his absence would stick.
He passed that test in impressive fashion.
Smith-Njigba led the team with 11 targets for 110 yards. Two of those targets were deep, giving him multiple deep targets in five straight games. JSN now has averaged 2.1 deep targets per game, which is a fully respectable number.
At this point, I'm willing to believe this is legit, and it means I'm shifting my view of JSN's ceiling up in a non-negligible way.
Metcalf is still the top receiver as he has a 23.3% target share in the games he has played, besting JSN's mark of 21.7%, and he leads in deep target share, 45.6% to 24.6%. But Smith-Njigba now is at least within shouting distance of Metcalf's tier, a deviation from how things were previously.
The Chicago Bears
The Chicago Bears were at an inflection point with Sunday being their first game under a new offensive coordinator, and there were a bunch of differences across the board.
That starts with the quarterback. Caleb Williams ran 9 times for 70 yards, just the second time he has topped the 50-yard mark this year. He was also efficient as a passer, meaning Williams is at least in consideration as a streamer in the right spots.
The targets, as usual, were concentrated to just three players. Rome Odunze led with 10 overall targets and 3 deep, though it resulted in just 65 yards. D.J. Moore was second with 62 yards on 7 targets while Keenan Allen had 41 on 8.
Allen's best-case scenario still seems like it's scoring in the low-teens of half-PPR points, which has limited appeal. Odunze and Moore, though, are at least solid options, and Odunze's stock does seem to be on the rise.
The runout was not as clean for D'Andre Swift. He played 54.4% of the snaps -- his lowest mark since Week 3 -- and had just 1 of 7 red-zone chances. Roschon Johnson got 4 of those red-zone looks and took 10 total carries versus Swift's 14. Swift should be downgraded, and this makes Johnson a quality stash if he's not already rostered in your league.
Jerry Jeudy
Before Jameis Winston became the Browns' starter, Jerry Jeudy had gotten double-digit targets in a game just five times in his career.
He has now done it in back-to-back games.
Sunday's 11-target game resulted in 142 yards -- second most of his career -- and a touchdown. Four of those targets were deep, also tops on the team.
In Winston's three starts, Jeudy now has a slight lead over Cedric Tillman for the team lead in target share (22.9% to 22.1%), and Elijah Moore (21.4%) and David Njoku (17.6%) are right behind. All four are viable season-long starters, led by Jeudy and then Tillman, as long as Winston remains the starter.
The long-term concern would be if they eventually see what Dorian Thompson-Robinson can do, but for now, fire up Jeudy and Tillman with confidence.
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Additional Notes
- Brian Robinson returned, and he and Austin Ekeler played together a bunch. Robinson led with 16 carries, but Ekeler had 9 targets for 89 yards. Robinson is a fun player when healthy, which he now is, so that's a plus. Ekeler getting this kind of work makes him a solid flex play for season-long, though, which is better than his profile with Robinson previously.
- Tee Higgins had no limitations in his first game off of injury. He tied Ja'Marr Chase for the team lead in targets with 13 and turned it into 148 yards and a touchdown. Higgins now has a 29.0% target share in his 6 games this year, a truly elite number.
- Amari Cooper made some flashy plays Sunday, but his role was still muted. He finished with just three targets while playing with a cast on his left wrist. Cooper ran a route on 22 of 40 drop backs, so while he's startable in season-long, we still shouldn't treat him like an every-down guy.
- With no Sam LaPorta, the Detroit Lions gave big target shares to Amon-Ra St. Brown (35.5%) and Jameson Williams (19.4%). Whenever you take one of those three pieces out of the equation, the other two are going to be hyper-attractive, given how efficient the offense is.
- Will Dissly turned 6 targets into 80 yards on Sunday, pushing his season-long target share up to 18.1%. That increases to 21.7% in 6 games since their bye, which is a great number for the position, especially when it's tied to a talented quarterback. Dissly's -- until further notice -- a firm season-long starter and DFS consideration.
- Jonnu Smith turned 8 targets into 101 yards and 2 touchdowns. His target share in games with Tua Tagovailoa is up to 16.7%, which is high enough for him to be a streamer and a DFS consideration in the right spots.
- As expected, Mark Andrews' role once again scaled back with Isaiah Likely active in Week 11. Andrews' snap rate was 59.3%, and he ran a route on 18 of 35 drop backs. It's better than his role was earlier in the year, but it's clear Andrews needs to be pushed down when he plays alongside Likely.
- JuJu Smith-Schuster didn't do much in his return for the Kansas City Chiefs. He played just 32.7% of the snaps, fourth among the team's receivers. He can be dropped in most formats with Travis Kelce, DeAndre Hopkins, and Xavier Worthy likely to handle most of the targets.
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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.